Shriners Children's 500k Preview: The Desert Jewel

We stay out west this weekend and head from Texas to Arizona to continue the west coast swing. This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway. The track at Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very low, progressive banking in the corners of eight to 11 degrees. The straights are nearly flat at a lowly three degrees, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. This oval is vastly different than Daytona or Atlanta. Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well. As we have witnessed in the last several years, it's often the driver who brings the fastest car to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy. This race is typically marked by dominant performances, and very rarely by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane. The driver who has led the most laps at this oval has won seven of the last 12 Phoenix races. This is a trend that will likely continue this Sunday.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for Phoenix Raceway. This style of racing is a big departure from the standard ovals that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on. At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis. The recent loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will be the most important data we will examine this week. The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 20 years or 40 races at Phoenix Raceway.

This is the first race at the Phoenix oval since last November when NASCAR's top division rolled into the Arizona desert to crown last season's champion. Christopher Bell would put on a dominant performance and lead 143 of the 312 laps that November afternoon. However, it wouldn't be Bell, rather it would be Joey Logano who would rise late and win not on the race but also last season's championship. Ryan Blaney would attempt to reel him in during the closing laps but would finish runner-up instead. That finish would be good enough to crown Logano last season's NASCAR Cup Series champion. Considering that we're just four, short months removed from that race, we have to look very closely at what happened in the Cup Series Championship Race. That race and its data will be very fresh and relevant to this week's Shriners Children's 500k. Logano's win gave Ford their first victory at Phoenix since the 2022 season.

If Toyota hopes to climb back into top status at Phoenix Raceway, their hopes will primarily ride with Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. The duo were the strongest Toyota drivers in both Phoenix races last season, and Bell actually won this event one year ago for the lone Toyota victory at Phoenix since 2021. If Ford hopes to continue their dominance of Phoenix, their big hitters will be Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Logano is a four-time winner at Phoenix Raceway. Blaney has never won at the Arizona short track, but he has taken four runner-up finishes in the last five events at the Phoenix oval and has been painfully close to breaking through the last couple seasons. If Chevrolet hopes to stir up some trouble this weekend it will likely come in the form of either Kyle Larson or William Byron. Those two have been the heaviest hitters for the bowtie brand on the short tracks and specifically here at Phoenix Raceway. We'll highlight the teams mentioned above, and some others who will be vying for the win at Phoenix. 

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – The winner of the last two races rides a tidal wave of momentum into the Arizona desert this weekend. Bell's victories at both Atlanta and this past week at COTA have made a real statement to the field. Make no mistake, Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team are the outfit to beat in the Shriner's Children's 500k. The Joe Gibbs Racing star won this event one year ago for his first-career Phoenix victory and he's led a combined 193 laps in his last two Phoenix starts. In Bell's last Phoenix start last November, he dominated much of the race to finish a strong fifth-place in the NASCAR Championship Race. He'll be the driver to beat Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.

William Byron – The winner of this event two years ago easily makes the contenders list this week. Byron led 64 laps in this event two seasons ago and took his first-career Phoenix win to the bank. He won the pole, led 95 laps and finished fourth at this oval in November of that same year, so Byron had a pretty stellar season at this track in 2023. He has finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last four Phoenix Raceway starts and lowered his career average finish here to a pretty sharp 11.1. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet was very competitive on short tracks last season with a win at Martinsville and runner-up finish at Iowa. Byron and his Hendrick Motorsports team are top contenders to win at Phoenix.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is seeking to crack the win column for the first time in 2025 this weekend at Phoenix. He'll look to capitalize on some recent gains and success he's had on the Avondale oval. Phoenix Raceway had been a bit of a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 12 Ford up until just recently. Blaney rides a stellar seven-race Phoenix Top-5 streak into Sunday. Four of the last five of those have been runner-up finishes with 123 combined laps led. The recent heater has elevated the Penske Racing star's stats at Phoenix Raceway to a strong 50-percent Top-5 rate and 72-percent Top-10 rate with impressive 10.4 average finish. Somehow, Blaney is still winless at this desert oval, but that very well could change after Sunday's Shriners Children's 500k.  

Kyle Larson – Larson is looking to reverse a slow start to this season. The one-time Phoenix winner has Top 5's in three of his last four starts at the desert short track coming into this weekend's action. Larson's last performance at this track netted a strong fourth-place finish in the NASCAR Championship Race last November. That effort has lifted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Phoenix to a strong 62-percent. He also cracks the Top 5 at this oval at an impressive 43-percent rate. It's really surprising that he's only grabbed one-career victory at this race track. Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team won one short track event last season (Bristol) and collected two runner-up finishes, so they were one of the stronger short track performers of last season.   

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a four-time Phoenix winner and his last at the track last November rewarded Logano with the Cup Series Championship. It marks a surge in performance for Logano at this facility in recent visits. The Penske Racing star has led a combined 719 laps in his last 11 starts at Phoenix Raceway. He's also cracked the Top 10 in eight of his last 12 starts at the Arizona short track heading into Sunday's action. Since the 2020 season alone he's compiled three wins and one runner-up finish at the Desert Jewel. That has boosted his career Top-5 rate at this track to a strong 28-percent. Logano is a great candidate to crack the Top 10 and be an outside challenger to win in the Shriners Children's 500k.  

Tyler Reddick – With his third-place finish this past week at COTA, Reddick has signaled he's ready to turn things up a notch now that we're entering the short track/intermediate oval portion of this season's schedule. The 23XI Racing youngster hasn't been a world beater at Phoenix Raceway, but he's had some notable success in recent starts. Three of his last four efforts at the Arizona oval have netted Top-10 finishes. That has boosted his overall Top-10 percentage at the track to 40-percent, which bodes well for this weekend's Shriners Children's 500k. He's also not been a big lap leader here, but Reddick seems to qualify reasonably well and that's a big factor at this smaller oval. Coming off the momentum of his big Circuit of the Americas performance, we expect big things for Reddick this Sunday.  

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit. The last came in his start here in the Fall of 2019. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 41-percent of his starts at Phoenix Raceway. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 930 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher. Hamlin's last three finishes at the Arizona oval are eighth-, 11th- and 11th-place finishes. It's pretty clear that he simply loves racing at this short track. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a bit of a slow start to the 2025 season, but this is a race and an oval that can get him back in the Top-10 column this Sunday afternoon.

Chris Buescher – Phoenix Raceway isn't one of Buescher's top statistical ovals. In fact, he labored here for several years before earning his first Top 10 at the track in early 2022. However, since then the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has nabbed two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last six Phoenix starts. Last November Buescher started 24th on the grid and rode home to an impressive ninth-place finish in the NASCAR Championship Race. That puts his Phoenix Raceway average finish at a robust 10.3 over his most recent six-race span. That is well below his career 19.3 average finish at the track and a much better sampling of what to expect in Sunday's Shriners Children's 500k.        

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The season has gotten off to a reasonably good start, but it hasn't come exactly firing out of the gates either for Elliott and the No. 9 team. The Top 5 at COTA this past week when a long way to boosting Elliott's confidence. We head to Phoenix this week and as you can see from the loop data chart, Elliott has really carved this small oval up during his 10-season career. The driver rating is off the charts and his 12.4-career average finish at Phoenix Raceway is a good stat to focus on. Elliott boasts a steady 52-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel and his last start at the track netted a strong eight-place finish last November. We expect the Hendrick Motorsports star to be a high-ceiling fantasy racing performer this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch – The good start to the season is encouraging for the Richard Childress Racing star after a very tough 2024 campaign. Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of those victories and a runner-up finish have come since 2018 at the Phoenix oval. Despite a tough last three starts at Phoenix Raceway, Busch should have no trouble rebounding to more familiar form this Sunday. His 26-career Top 10's at Phoenix work out to a strong 67-percent Top-10 rate and stellar 11.5 average finish across 39-career starts. We expect to see a much better qualifying effort, much better speed and the ability to race in and challenge the Top 10 from Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team.

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe is a one-time Phoenix winner (2022) and his four Top-10 finishes in eight-career starts work out to a strong 50-percent Top-10 rate. His move to Joe Gibbs Racing should only bolster is ability to perform well at the Desert Jewel. We believe he loves this particular short track and are willing to write off last November's poor finish as an outlier. As proof, we offer Briscoe's Xfinity Series career record at the Phoenix track. He was four-for-four in starts/Top 10's at the facility prior to his promotion to the Cup Series in 2021. The 7.3 average finish across those four performances is nothing short of stellar. We expect big things for Briscoe this weekend in Phoenix.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran labored for a lot of seasons at the Desert Jewel until finally moving into the No. 1 Chevrolet back in 2022. Chastain has grabbed one win and one runner-up finish at Phoenix Raceway since joining this race team. His four Top 10's in the six starts since that promotion check in at a strong 67-percent Top-10 rate which is well above his career Top-10 rate at Phoenix of just 31-percent. Chastain qualified well here last November, starting third on the grid. However, some difficulties during the race would see him finish a subpar 19th-place. We believe Chastain will shake that off as he had the speed necessary to finish inside the Top 10 that afternoon.   

Bubba Wallace – Wallace signaled to the entire Cup Series with his Top-5 finish in the pre-season Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium that he will be a driver to contend with on this season's short tracks. The 23XI Racing veteran has shown gradual improvement over the years at Phoenix Raceway. While his total stats aren't overly impressive (21-percent Top-10 rate) his most recent outings really need the most scrutiny. Wallace nabbed a Phoenix career-best finish of seventh-place in last November's NASCAR Championship Race. That is one of two Top 10's and three Top 15's he's collected at the Desert Jewel in his last four starts at the flat track. The average Phoenix finish across this recent four-race span is a strong 11.8.  

Michael McDowell – McDowell's career record at Phoenix is pretty ugly with just two Top 10's in 28-career starts (7-percent). However, his slim success at the track has only happened most recently in his career. The driver of the No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet has grabbed two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four Phoenix Raceway starts. Something seems to have "clicked" for this 16-season veteran as his qualifying efforts at the Desert Jewel have improved and also his finishes. The move to Spire from his former Front Row team shouldn't be concerning. McDowell has started the season well with his new race team and boasts 11th-, 13th- and 11th-place finish in his first three starts of 2025.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Austin Cindric – Despite a Top-10 finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, Cindric has fallen into a rut the past two races. Finishes of 28th- and 25th-place the last two weeks at Atlanta and COTA have dampened what was a good kickoff at Daytona. The Penske Racing driver could be in for more struggles this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has six-career Cup Series starts at the Arizona oval and has just two Top-15 finishes in those efforts vs. four finishes outside the Top 20. The average finish is coming in around a disappointing 24.0 for this driver and team. Cindric is much more well known for his superspeedway performance than his short tracks skills.       

Ty Gibbs – The start to the 2025 campaign couldn't have gone much worse for Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team. The young driver has just one Top-20 finish in the first three events of the season and two finishes outside the Top 30. Gibbs will look to change his luck in this Sunday's Shriners Children's 500k. However, his consistency has been nonexistent in his first four Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway. Gibbs earned an incredible third-place finish in this event one year ago. But his other three starts have all been finishes outside the Top 20. Last November's good qualifying effort (sixth on the grid) would be wasted as Gibbs would get tangled up in a lap 1 crash in the NASCAR Championship Race. He would finish a distant 40th-place last November.  

Alex Bowman – Bowman is not a historically strong performer at Phoenix Raceway so we've slotted him in the slow down list this week. With just two Top-10 finishes in 19-career starts at the flat short track, his 11-percent Top-10 rate is well lower than the norm. The 21.9 average finish also lags well behind most of the field. After Top 10's at both Daytona and this past week at COTA, the No. 48 Chevrolet team are off to a good start to this season. However, this track and this weekend are an occasion to fade Bowman in fantasy racing leagues. There are better fantasy racing options in the field this weekend for this 312-lap battle in the desert.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet came back to Earth with his 18th-place finish at COTA this past Sunday on the heels of his Atlanta Top 5. Stenhouse will now look to rebound on a tougher oval this Sunday in Phoenix. The HYAK Motorsports veteran has struggled at Phoenix Raceway over the years. In 24-career starts he has just two Top-10 finishes (8-percent) and an average finish of 22.0. Last season Stenhouse struggled to 21st- and 33rd-place finishes at the Desert Jewel. This is one short track that he's never been able to solve. This driver and team are much more well known for their superspeedway performance than short track prowess. We don't have a very optimistic outlook for Stenhouse this weekend.