This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Chelsea host Manchester United on Friday in a game with steep Champions League qualification implications.
Chelsea took a massive blow in their chances of qualifying for the Champions League, losing 2-0 at Newcastle on Sunday. Nicolas Jackson was sent off in the first half, which really hurt Chelsea's chances of getting any points from the match. They play Manchester United and Nottingham Forest to finish the season and will likely need to win both matches to finish in the top five.
Things are completely opposite for Manchester United, who clearly don't care about Premier League matches anymore. They lost to West Ham over the weekend and still haven't eclipsed 40 points on the season. In other seasons, they would be on the brink of relegation, but they're lucky that the bottom three teams are miles worse than the rest.
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Premier League Best Bets for Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Betting on Player Shots
Jackson is suspended and Christopher Nkunku is injured, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Chelsea play Cole Palmer as a false nine.
He's been their best player by far this season and will be roaming between the lines of Manchester United's 5-4-1 low block. He'll more than likely be taking most of the shots for Chelsea.
Chelsea really struggle breaking down low blocks and often end up taking a lot of shots from outside the box. Palmer takes a lot of those because he's often the best chance Chelsea have at scoring. He's averaging 3.53 shots per 90 minutes and has taken 40 more shots than the next closest Chelsea player.
I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots at -138.
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Betting on Team Total Goals
Manchester United are bad offensively because of their system, and it's not going to get any better with second-choice players.
They don't have the technical players to consistently play out of the back the way that Ruben Amorim wants to and they also don't have the forwards who can win duels if they have to play direct. Starting striker Rasmus Hojlund has an ugly 23-percent aerial duel win rate.
When Chelsea press them high, they're either going to turn it over or send it long without much hope of regaining possession.
United created two expected goals against West Ham over the weekend, but with a possibly rotated squad away from home, I have a hard time seeing them scoring in this match
I like the value on Manchester United under 0.5 goals at +125.
Betting on Corners
Chelsea are more than likely going to control possession and tilt the field on Manchester United in this match.
The Blues are averaging 57.6-percent possession this season, which is second to only Manchester City and are also fourth in field tilt. Manchester United are at the opposite end of the spectrum when they have to play good competition.
More often than not, they've sat back in a compact 5-4-1 and look to deny space through the middle. That means they often concede quite a few corners. United have conceded the eighth most away from Old Trafford this season.
I like the value on Chelsea on the corner spread at -3 at +110 odds.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United Betting Picks
- Cole Palmer Over 3.5 shots (-138)
- Manchester United Team Total Under 0.5 (+125)
- Chelsea -3 corners (+110)
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