DraftKings DFS Soccer: UCL Picks for Tuesday, Dec. 12

MATCHES (ET)

• 3:00 pm: FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray
• 3:00 pm: Inter Milan vs. Real Sociedad
• 3:00 pm: Manchester United vs. Bayern Munich
• 3:00 pm: Napoli vs. SC Braga
• 3:00 pm: Red Bull Salzburg vs. Benfica
• 3:00 pm: Union Berlin vs. Real Madrid

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Cheat Sheet

INTRODUCTION

The last match week of the Champions League group stages is always tricky since some teams have nothing to play for. Normally, I'd be more excited about the matchups for Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, but both teams have already clinched first place in their groups. I worry about minutes for high profile players, especially since a lot of them are already on the expensive side. My initial plan is to focus on less expensive players in matches that matter more. 

While Bayern have clinched Group A, Manchester United are in fourth place and need a win to advance. United must take the game to Bayern to have any hope of advancing. Indeed, any winner in the matchup between Galatasaray and Copenhagen is guaranteed to advance over United no matter what happens at Old Trafford.

A win or draw at home against Braga will guarantee Napoli advance out of Group C. Napoli are the biggest favorite of the slate and Braga need to win by two goals to advance to the knockout stages. This should set up well for Napoli attackers. Union Berlin have a shot at third place and a spot in the Europa League knockout stages if they manage an upset win at home against Real Madrid.

Finally, in Group D, Inter are favored at home against Real Sociedad. Inter need a win to finish first place, so I like targeting their attackers in tournaments. The matchup between Red Bull Salzburg and Benfica is mostly meaningless, but a draw guarantees that Salzburg secure a Europa League spot. 

FORWARDS

Victor Osimhen (NAP vs. BRA, $7,100): From a cash-game perspective, there aren't many names with reliable floors in good matchups to roster. Angel Di Maria ($7,300) is a sensible choice, as he usually plays at least 80 minutes, splits set pieces, and shots and crosses plenty in open play. Benfica have struggled in UCL, but they remain slight favorites on the road against RB Salzburg. The forward I'm most excited to roster overall is Osimhen. Napoli are the biggest favorite and still need a result against Braga to advance. There's rarely an opportunity to roster Osimhen at $2,000 less than his teammate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ($9,100),and he has the best anytime goalscoring odds of the slate at -120. I think he's a cash-game option at this price and he'll be popular in tournaments for good reason.

Karim Konate (RBS vs. BEN, $4,300): In cash games, I think it might be viable to spend down once at the forward position to pay up for expensive defenders and midfielders. There are plenty of cheap options to target in GPPs and Konate stands out since his anytime goalscoring odds of +135 are great when you account for price. He's frequently subbed early if he starts, but he would be a great value if he replicated his five-shot performance at home to Inter in Matchweek 4. Casper Tengstedt ($4,100) and Simon Banza ($4,100) are both cheap center forwards and while the latter is an underdog, I think he's viable since Braga need to win to advance to the knockout rounds. 

Forward might not be clear cut for cash games, but I think there are plenty of exciting tournament options. I want to find forwards in games that matter that are capable of scoring a brace. Mauro Icardi ($8,400) and Wilfried Zaha ($8,100) are options with big ceilings in a must-win match for Galatasaray. Similarly, since Inter need to win at home to finish first in their group, I am interested in Lautaro Martinez ($9,500) and Marcus Thuram ($8,300) in GPPs. 

MIDFIELDERS

Bruno Fernandes (MUN vs. BAY, $9,300): I don't necessarily feel pressured to find the salary for Bruno since there are many mid-ranged midfielders worth playing. That said, it's a pretty elite set-up for him since Bayern have no incentive to win and United must win in order to advance. We've seen Bruno crush in gamescripts where Manchester United fell behind early in the Premier League and it's essentially the same script from kickoff given their position in the group. Be warned that he's no longer a set-piece monopolist since Luke Shaw or Sergio Reguilon will take left-sided corners should either start.

Hakim Ziyech and Kerem Akturkoglu (GAL at COP, $7,400/$6,700): I'm optimistic that there will be goals in the matchup between Copenhagen and Galatasaray. Both teams have an implied goal total just over 1.5 and their first matchup ended in a 2-2 draw. Ziyech and Akturkoglu should both contribute on set pieces and both offer a lot of attacking value in open play. They are each averaging over 12 floor points per 90 minutes played in Champions League. I'm somewhat concerned with their minutes,and neither Ziyech nor Akturkoglu is guaranteed to play more than 75 minutes should they start. Make sure you check for potential attacking subs on the bench.

Hakan Calhanoglu (INT vs. RSO, $6,400): Calhanoglu is the primary penalty taker for Inter and he's been taking a majority of their set pieces, as well. He's going to be more dependent on set pieces to get value, but with Inter incentivized to win and playing at home, I think he should be able to get a solid floor. He's just a bit too cheap for a player taking set pieces and penalties on a favorite.

A few cheaper midfielders stood out to me if you need to spend down at second midfielder or utility. Arsen Zakharyan ($4,900) has been taking some set pieces for Real Sociedad and has a great open-play floor, and the absence of Brais Mendez only helps. I plan on rostering him in GPP lineups where I roster other Inter forwards. I'm also interested in Oscar Gloukh ($4,100) and Luka Sucic ($3,800) for RB Salzburg at their prices. Sucic is a more defensive midfielder, but he took most of Salzburg's set pieces last game. Gloukh might take a few set pieces and he has proven to be capable of scoring goals and contributing in open play. 

DEFENDERS

Diogo Goncalves (COP vs. GAL, $5,700): While Copenhagen are hanging onto second place in Group A based on goal difference, I don't think they'll be able to sit back for 90 minutes at home to Galatasaray, especially if they concede or find out that Manchester United are beating Bayern Munich. Goncalves plays as a more attacking central midfielder (rather than defender, as his positional eligibility would suggest) and takes most of Copenhagen's set pieces. He's averaging 2.5 shots, 1.3 shots assisted, and 3.8 crosses per 90 minutes played in Champions League.

Federico Dimarco is a bit expensive at $6,300 and he's always an early sub liability. That said, he can score plenty of points even if he plays for just 70 minutes. It's not too difficult to find the salary for him and only Goncalves has the ability to keep up with Dimarco's ceiling based on open play and goal contributions. I think he's a great tournament target.

Victor Gomez (BRA at NAP, $3,200): I struggled to find cheaper defenders that I'm excited to play. I don't mind playing underdog full-backs such as Amar Dedic ($3,500) or Gomez in these circumstances. Gomez, in particular, scored 10 points, including eight crosses and two shots assisted, in Braga's reverse fixture at home against Napoli. 

GOALKEEPER

Alexander Schlager (RBS vs. BEN, $4,200): Schlager is priced as if Salzburg are sizable underdogs to Benfica, but the odds suggest that Benfica are barely favorites on the road. Alex Meret ($5,900) and Yann Sommer ($5,600) have the best win and clean sheet odds, but neither Inter nor Napoli is an overwhelming favorite, so they're not a priority. I like both of them in GPPs, but given these pricing dynamics, I expect Schlager to be a popular choice in cash games.