This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
FanDuel soccer is back with a single A-League (Australia) match Monday at 4:30 a.m. ET. Newcastle are slight home underdogs and have lost the last two meetings against Melbourne City by a combined 6-0 score line. Melbourne City won 4-0 when they played in Newcastle on Dec. 15. However, Newcastle have played better in the last month, taking points in five of their last six, though City have seven goals in their last two away games.
Melbourne City are slight +125 favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Newcastle at +175 and a draw at +250. The over/under is sitting around three goals with over 2.5 at -174 and under 3.5 at -186. Goals are expected to be scored, which is why Jamie Maclaren ($15) will get the most attention, especially in cash games. The other part is that Maclaren is coming off a hat trick Friday, a match in which he took 13 shots and six of them were on target. That's why he has the best odds to score (-125) and will be the most popular cash option.
If you're banking on two or three goals and a win from Melbourne City, the obvious move is to back the next two starters with the best odds to score, which would be Adrian Luna ($11), Craig Noone ($10) or Markel Susaeta ($12). If you simply want the same lineup as the majority of other people, that's the route to go.
But since Newcastle haven't allowed more than one goal in
FanDuel soccer is back with a single A-League (Australia) match Monday at 4:30 a.m. ET. Newcastle are slight home underdogs and have lost the last two meetings against Melbourne City by a combined 6-0 score line. Melbourne City won 4-0 when they played in Newcastle on Dec. 15. However, Newcastle have played better in the last month, taking points in five of their last six, though City have seven goals in their last two away games.
Melbourne City are slight +125 favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Newcastle at +175 and a draw at +250. The over/under is sitting around three goals with over 2.5 at -174 and under 3.5 at -186. Goals are expected to be scored, which is why Jamie Maclaren ($15) will get the most attention, especially in cash games. The other part is that Maclaren is coming off a hat trick Friday, a match in which he took 13 shots and six of them were on target. That's why he has the best odds to score (-125) and will be the most popular cash option.
If you're banking on two or three goals and a win from Melbourne City, the obvious move is to back the next two starters with the best odds to score, which would be Adrian Luna ($11), Craig Noone ($10) or Markel Susaeta ($12). If you simply want the same lineup as the majority of other people, that's the route to go.
But since Newcastle haven't allowed more than one goal in any of their last five, it's worth it to play for a 1-0 result or 1-1 draw. Noone is probably the best floor play for Melbourne City due to set pieces. He has four goals and five assists this season, but more importantly he creates ton of chances. While he's averaging close to one shot on target per match, he's created 18 chances in his last six starts to go with 10 tackles. That production is worth captaining if you want to bank on a higher floor instead of Maclaren, who sometimes disappears if he doesn't score.
Luna produces similar numbers to Noone in the run of play, but without set pieces, he isn't as effective with three chances created in his last four starts. It's a similar case for Susaeta, and while he's coming off a nice one-goal, one-assist performance, he has three shots on target in eight starts. Joshua Brillante ($9) and Florin Berenguer ($8) are the other projected starters, but neither are major fantasy threats. Berenguer has a touch more upside with six shots in his last three starts, while Brillante has a slightly better floor as a defensive midfielder, averaging combined 5.3 tackles, interceptions and clearances per match. If you're banking on a scoreless draw, Brillante would be a cash play because he's at least good for 10 fantasy points.
Newcastle are more of the GPP route because in addition to not scoring in the prior two meetings, they were held scoreless by Brisbane on Friday. Roy O'Donovan ($13) has the best odds to score (+170) as the lone striker, but he has a much lower floor than Dimitri Petratos ($14), who is +230 to score. Petratos is the reasonable captain if you're not into Maclaren or Noone. Despite being an underdog, Petratos is probably the best floor play on the slate and his fantasy output closely resembles that of Kevin De Bruyne. He has 38 chances created and 11 shots on goal in his last nine starts, and one of those performances includes a 2-0 loss at Melbourne City. Even on a short week, he isn't a worry not to play 90 minutes because of his importance to Newcastle.
Abdiel Arroyo ($9) and Wesley Hoolahan ($10) have similar odds to score, but they're likely to be subbed off early. Arroyo has had some nice performances, yet Hoolahan has taken away playing time the last two contests, and a short week is unlikely to change that. Steven Ugarkovic ($8) is a classic defensive midfielder, who has no upside but a floor around 10 fantasy points with a combined 4.6 tackles, interceptions and clearances per match. Matthew Millar ($10) may have the second-highest floor for Newcastle because in addition to getting up and down the flank, he's usually good for a couple tackles and interceptions.
Captaining O'Donovan is the true GPP route, but that could turn out poorly because it'd be a surprise if Newcastle scored more than once. You might be able to get away with captaining Petratos in GPP, as long as you fade Maclaren. At that point, you're hoping Newcastle hold City to fewer than two goals. I'll probably start with Petratos and Noone, and go from there for all of my squads.
If you want a safe defender, Nigel Boogaard ($7) may be the best route because he averages 5.4 clearances per match, compared to 3.6 for Nikolai Topor-Stanley ($10), who is oddly expensive. John Koutroumbis ($5) is also in play and someone I wouldn't mind using if needed. Bobby Burns ($8) is the upside pick having created 18 chances in his last nine starts. If you're not going all-in on Melbourne City, he's a viable option.
I'm not sure it's worth spending on either favored center-back, Curtis Good ($9) or Rostyn Griffiths ($7), especially since they don't save you money. In fact, full-backs Scott Jamieson ($6) and Nathaniel Atkinson ($5) produce similar defensive numbers to go with a touch of upside from created chances.
