This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Nearing the end of an historic goalscoring season in the Premier League, the odds are juiced for goals in every match. Unless you're really good at picking your spots, betting over/unders by themselves are a losing prospect. In matches where goals seem likely, over 3.5 goals is favored to hit, while the matches that figure to be lower scoring all finish with more than three goals.
In fact, for Gameweek 37, according to the FPL cheat sheet, every match but one has an implied goal total above three, numbers never seen in prior seasons.
Want more Premier League bets? Go to Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris look at three matchups in depth and give out a winning Team Parlay.
Record: 43-67-2. Down $1,807 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Tottenham Hotspur
Burnley double chance against Tottenham +235
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I'm doubling down on Burnley which sounds like a ridiculous strategy for a team favored to be relegated. I was convinced they would take at least a point last week and they fell apart after the first Newcastle goal.
However, I think they may be better suited in matches where they have much less possession, which should be the case at Tottenham. Back in September in the first meeting, Spurs bagged five goals from 2.28 xG and that seems like a lifetime ago. When they met in the FA Cup in January, Spurs again won, but it was just 1-0 at Tottenham with the home side only managing 1.30 xG from seven shots on target.
Tottenham have been bad more often than not the last couple months and Emerson isn't the answer at left-back. Not many will agree with me, but I think Burnley can take a point in this spot playing for their Premier League lives. At +235 on the double chance, I'll hope they have some life left. If not, they'll probably lose 5-2 again.
EPL Best Bets for Sheffield United at Everton
Sheffield United race to five corners against Everton +425
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Yes, I have bets on the two worst teams in the league, both away from home. It's been a tough few months for this article and there's no reason to play it safe as the season winds down.
Everton have played well lately, but will that same motivation be there now that they don't have to worry about relegation? Even if it is, they aren't a team that dominates possession, which could mean a somewhat back-and-forth contest against the Blades.
Sheffield United are bad, but they're pushing up the pitch and getting opportunities against most sides. Assuming they play similarly in this match, I think the corner numbers should be closer to even rather than Everton -3. Instead of taking an even money bet, I'm going big with a race to five corners, which was +500 on Thursday when I initially wrote up this bet.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Newcastle United
Under 3.5 goals between Newcastle and Brighton +100
Unlike the rest of the world, I've been on Brighton unders for at least a month. Unfortunately, one of those times I decided I was smarter than everyone else and took under 2.5 in the Bournemouth matchup. You know what happened.
Their attack simply isn't producing, but their defense has quietly stepped up, aided by the return of Billy Gilmour in the midfield. Even if they aren't winning as many matches as earlier in the season, the matches have been mostly tight. Playing at Newcastle is always difficult, but this doesn't feel like recent contests when Brighton were clobbered by Arsenal and Manchester City.
I think Newcastle will find some resistance in this match, unlike their last two (Burnley, Sheffield United), leading to another low-scoring game, albeit one in which Newcastle still have the edge.
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EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Wolverhampton, Brentford at Bournemouth, Chelsea at Nottingham Forest
Parlay: Draw between Palace and Wolves + Draw between Bournemouth and Brentford + Draw between Forest and Chelsea = +5290
If you thought the above bets were crazy, have you ever parlayed three draws?
Crystal Palace are playing well, but Wolves have a chance to show their fans some life after a rough couple months. Healthy again, I think this match is in play for a 1-1 or 2-2 result.
Bournemouth have been good at home, but Brentford's physicality doesn't match well with how they want to play. Brentford drew 0-0 last week against Fulham in another match that meant nothing for either side.
It took some time to decide my third draw projection with the West Ham and Luton Town game also in consideration. Chelsea are playing well, yet they've been mostly mediocre away from home. They should've allowed a goal in each of their last two matches and came away with clean sheets at home. Nottingham Forest almost outplayed Manchester City in their last home match. I think both teams can score in this spot and Forest have enough in their attack to take a point.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 37
- Burnley double chance against Tottenham +235
- Sheffield United race to five corners against Everton +425
- Under 3.5 goals between Newcastle and Brighton +100
- Parlay: Draw between Palace and Wolves + Draw between Bournemouth and Brentford + Draw between Forest and Chelsea = +5290
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
