This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Breathe in. Breathe out. You're going to need a clear mind for the next month (and more). The next international break is the World Cup in which there is only a week between the last league matches and the first World Cup game.
It's been a good start to the season but like any bettor knows, you have to stay humble and not get overly confident. Following the resumption of play, there will be six-straight weeks of midweek matches (with matches every weekend) for teams playing European football. Teams will be rotating and betting will be harder than ever, especially when writing about it days in advance of lineup release. Of course, I believe we can keep the winning going.
If you want more in-depth betting coverage of the Premier League, our podcast Kits & Wagers dives into three matches every week, highlighted by a couple derbies this weekend.
Record: 19-10-1. Up $832 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace double chance versus Chelsea +100
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Will the international break help Graham Potter figure out his roster? Maybe. But unlike Brighton, the majority of Chelsea competed with their international teams, which means most of these guys still don't have a many training sessions with Potter. In their lone match under Potter, they dominated Red Bull Salzburg until allowing one late chance, an equalizer. While I'm tentative to bet against Chelsea because of their new manager, I still think Crystal Palace are underrated in this spot.
Palace sit 16th in the table, but they had a match postponed and already played Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City. I still think Palace are a top-10 side and they have the quality to get a point in this spot, especially coming out of the break. I think they'll limit quality chances and Wilfried Zaha will be a nuisance for whoever starts at center-back for Chelsea, as he often is. At almost even odds for a double chance, this bet makes too much sense. Looking further, Palace are +120 to finish in the top 10.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Southampton
Everton draw no bet versus Southampton +150
I've been going against Southampton since their win against Chelsea and it's been a fruitful run. Sure, that's only been two matches and this is their first home match since that Chelsea win, but I'm not sure how much that matters. I'm not afraid to bet against Southampton at St. Mary's and that's where this bet is coming from.
Everton are just as good as Southampton, if not better, and they're +250 to win. The Saints haven't figured out who to play next to James Ward-Prowse without Romeo Lavia (and Oriol Romeu) and I'm not sure they have someone for that position unless Ibrahima Diallo improves soon. On the other side, Everton have some injury worries at full-back, but they are suddenly loaded in the midfield and I think that's where they'll control this match. While I think taking 'Draw No Bet' is a lame move since a draw results in a push, that's the play in this spot as Everton double chance is at -145.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at West Ham
Wolves double chance versus West Ham -115
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With the help of the RotoWire line movement on the betting pages, I noticed Wolves have moved from +265 to +310 to beat West Ham in the past two weeks. Some of that may be related to the suspension of Nathan Collins and the possibly long-term injury to Raul Jimenez, though I'm not sure that changes things for me. While I'm worried about the back line, I still think Wolves are being massively underrated. I don't think they're going to win at West Ham, but that's why I'm betting double chance.
I've been against the Hammers all season and they're still being rated almost as a top-seven club despite some struggles. You could grab under 2.5 goals at -135 after both meetings resulted 1-0 last season, but I'll take better odds on Wolves, who may not be getting a ton of wins yet are playing to the level of competition in almost every matchup.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Leicester City
Leicester City to beat Nottingham Forest and over 1.5 goals +100
Leicester City and Nottingham Forest are the worst teams in the league at the moment. Leicester are allowing goals in bunches, while Forest have lost back-to-back home matches, both 3-2, against fellow recently-promoted clubs. I'm not sure either side has an identity right now outside of allowing tons of goals. The difference is that James Maddison is one of the best players in the league and they have a number of forwards who can put the ball in the back of the net. Brendan Rodgers may be the favorite to be the next manager to be sacked, but unless this team truly hates itself, I think they win this match.
Coming out of the break, Leicester should at least have a clear mind and matchups against Forest and Bournemouth will help. While that doesn't mean their back line will secure a clean sheet, I can't pass up the odds on a simple DraftKings-built parlay of them to win with the over. The downside is that if you can find a sportsbook that allows you to parlay these yourself, the odds should be closer to +150. I originally had over 2.5 goals but decided on over 1.5 goals to be a little safer.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 9
- Crystal Palace double chance versus Chelsea -105
- Everton draw no bet versus Southampton +145
- Wolves double chance versus West Ham -115
- Leicester City to beat Nottingham Forest and over 1.5 goals +100
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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