This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The international break is over and it's time to forget everything that happened over the first month. It doesn't matter. Don't put too much into prior weeks when betting because that's when it burns you. Of course, I'm speaking from experience.
Record: 9-7. Up $246 on $100 bets.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen breakdown three matches and dish out a team parlay.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Manchester United
Under 2.5 goals between Man United and Brighton +185
Premier League over/under bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
If I only looked at results this season, I wouldn't make this bet. Neither Manchester United nor Brighton have played inspiring defensely and there's a chance this bet is a mistake. However, I hit the under on both meetings last season with Roberto De Zerbi involved, as only one goal was scored across two games (Cup included).
There's a chance injuries are still a problem (Raphael Varane is out, Lisandro Martinez is a doubt) and both teams will make mistakes, but I think this could turn out similar to those two prior meetings. Brighton will have most of the possession, but similar to the West Ham game, I don't think they'll have an overwhelming amount of good looks.
Erik ten Hag won't want to drop points at home coming out of the break and will play this one a little safer. The most likely way this game pops off with a bunch of goals is if Man United convert their chances on counters (similar to West Ham) and that may come down to newcomer Rasmus Hojlund. Maybe he shows up with a hat trick or maybe both teams struggle to get great opportunities and can't turn anything into goals.
EPL Best Bets for Luton Town at Fulham
Both teams to score between Fulham and Luton Town -120
Premier League BTTS bets are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
I messed up on Luton Town in my last article. I initially wrote down Luton corners in my notes and then upon posting my article I mistakenly wrote down double chance. Making matters worse, West Ham escaped with a ridiculous non-PK call in the final seconds of that contest to get three points.
No matter, I'm back for more. I have no faith in Fulham to get a win at -150, but I think these teams can score. Fulham will go into this match knowing three points are vital and they'll go for that early goal. That'll hopefully leave them open defensively and Luton can grab a goal somewhere along the way.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Aston Villa
Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace -110
I'm slightly surprised you can get Fulham -150 to win and Aston Villa -110 to win for Saturday's matches. Villa have been great this season outside of trips to Newcastle and Liverpool, two of the most difficult matchups in the league. I know Crystal Palace are higher than them in the table and playing better than expected, but I'm not sure this is a spot where they can get points.
They were lucky to steal a point at Brentford and needed late goals to topple Wolverhampton just before the break. I could be wrong, but I don't think Villa will have the same scoring issues as Brentford had in this matchup. Of course, Villa escaped in this spot last season, getting an own goal as their only tally in a 1-0 result.
I thought these odds would be closer to -130 or -140, but at -110, I feel comfortable taking them to win straight up.
If you're looking for some boosts and can't decide which one, check out RotoWire's sportsbook promo codes.
EPL Best Bets for Sheffield United at Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford at Newcastle United
Parlay: Tottenham to beat Sheffield United and Newcastle to beat Brentford -105
I blew my parlay last gameweek when Chelsea couldn't score home against Nottingham Forest. This week, I won't do anything as stupid, right? But I like both Tottenham and Newcastle in these spots.
Tottenham have started the Ange Postecoglou regime well and it seems too easy for them to drop points against Sheffield United. They'll have a lot of great chances to score in this match and I expect they'll get two or three goals.
Newcastle are in a bounce-back spot after a difficult August and I think they can get three points from Brentford. I expect Brentford to use their five-man back line in this spot and that'll lead to loads of chances for Newcastle. At home, I'll put my money on them converting at least a couple.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 5
- Under 2.5 goals between Man United and Brighton +185
- Both teams to score between Fulham and Luton Town -120
- Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace -110
- Parlay: Tottenham to beat Sheffield United and Newcastle to beat Brentford -105
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
