This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The UEFA group stages are always fun, but they also mean there's no time to take a step back and analyze what some teams do on a match-to-match basis. Rotation is always hard to project, especially for the teams with smaller benches, and then early substitutions are also a regularity. My last set of bets entering the international break went 0-4 and I posted an incorrect one. I'll do better this time, I hope.
Record: 16-12. Up $530 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen take on three matches, including Manchester City and Arsenal.
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EPL Best Bets for Sheffield United at Fulham
Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Sheffield United -110
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I wondered about Fulham's struggles when previewing their match against Chelsea on Monday and that result didn't change my thoughts. This isn't the same exciting team as last season and that may have to do with the absence of Aleksandar Mitrovic. They're fourth-worst in the league in terms of xG and outside of the random result at Arsenal, they haven't shown a ton of fight.
Sheffield United sit in that same boat and have been even worse, but this is a game Fulham know they can't lose. They took that approach against Luton Town a few weeks ago and the teams combined for just 20 shots in a 1-0 Fulham win.
I think something similar is in the cards, as the Blades are simply looking for an identity right now. If you think a 3-0 win is in play, 'No' on both teams to score is also -110, though at that point just bet Fulham to win to nil.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace
SGP: Under 2.5 goals and Crystal Palace double chance against Nottingham Forest +110
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I know this and the Fulham one may be the boringest matches of the weekend, but that doesn't matter for our bank accounts. Crystal Palace are at a massive disadvantage heading into the break, as Eberechi Eze was added to the injury list that already includes Jefferson Lerma, Michael Olise and Odsonne Edouard. Similar to their win at Manchester United, I think they play for a 1-0 win, something Roy Hodgson is an expert at.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest haven't found their perfect lineup since the departure of Brennan Johnson and it could take them 90 minutes to figure out how to get past the Palace back line.
Since a 1-1 result is in play, I'm not betting 'No' on both teams to score at -115 and under 2.5 goals is -155. Instead, I'll do a single-game parlay that includes under 2.5 goals and Palace double chance for +110 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Brighton
SGP: Over 2.5 goals and Liverpool double chance against Brighton -115
This match is starting to feel like a trap as more Brighton injuries come to light. Now without Pervis Estupinan at left-back, the options are waning and playing in France on Thursday isn't going to help. That said, Pascal Gross amazingly went 90 minutes in that game and it seems like he has a chance to start again.
When Liverpool first got a taste of Roberto De Zerbi-ball last season, they drew 3-3 in October. Brighton then won the next two meetings, both at home, 3-0 and 2-1 (in the FA Cup), both in January.
Now that the blueprint is out on Brighton and that Liverpool are in a better place than last season, I think this is a perfect match for their front three to rack up chances. De Zerbi is rotating a ton, doesn't have his same defensive stoppers as last season and Brighton are allowing goals every match. They will make mistakes and Darwin Nunez is almost the perfect player to capitalize on them.
I'm keeping this one fairly safe, but betting Liverpool over 2.5 team goals at +180 is in play. Instead, I'll take over 2.5 goals and Liverpool to at least take a point.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 8
- Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Sheffield United -110
- SGP: Under 2.5 goals and Crystal Palace double chance against Nottingham Forest +110
- SGP: Over 2.5 goals and Liverpool double chance against Brighton -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
