This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Australia (+265) and France (+110) will kick off in Brisbane with the market discounting both the Matilda's substantial home advantage and their recent 1-0 defeat of Les Bleus.
Looking for stats, odds and lineups for this match? Check out our Cheat Sheets.
AUSTRALIA VS. FRANCE
France's form is flattered by an incredibly soft run of matches in the tournament. Yes, they have arguably been progressive, but a 4-0 defeat of debutants Morocco -- with two major defensive blunders in the first 20 minutes -- is hardly the basis for projections against a host nation that has defeated top sides convincingly (and without Samantha Kerr).
France may be favored because expected goals have persistently been projected across all matches, instead of as away matches for all but the hosts. France's aggregate xG is 2.97 whereas its away only xG is only 1.87. Conversely, Australia's xG is 1.54 but its home only xG is 2.02. The difference in methodology swings the baseline result from France 3-1 to the more probable Australia 2:1 (+1700) or 2:2 (+1200) -- odds too good to pass up. Both teams have averaged roughly 12 shots per match with 18- and 19-percent conversion ratios, respectively, further supporting a 2-1 or 2-2 forecast.
France absolutely has quality but then so did all the other pre-tournament darlings. This World Cup has definitively favored teams that grind out results and sent the style queens swimming home early. France's defense has not been tested much and may be found wanting. Expect the Matilda's to triumph by a fine margin once again. Australia win by exactly one goal (+350) and Australia double chance (-145) are the value, and low-risk propositions respectively.
GOALSCORER ODDS
Caitlin Foord has undeniably been the host nation player to watch, making incessant streaking runs up the left side. As a nominal underdog, Foord to score or assist (Odds TBD) should be attractively priced. Left-back Steph Catley will be on PK duty at least until Kerr (available but nursing calf injury) subs on. Catley anytime goalscorer odds are worth a late-game investment. No doubt Kadidiatou Diani and Eugenie Le Sommer will be kept safe by the public.
- Caitlin Foord (1 goal) +300 AGS (anytime goalscorer); +850 FGS (first goalscorer)
- Stephanie Catley (2 goals) +600 AGS; +1600 FGS
- Hayley Raso (3 goals) +650 AGS; +1400 FGS
- Kalidou Diani (4 goals) +240 AGS; +650 FGS
- Eugenie Le Sommer (3 goals) +160 AGS; +450 FGS
Women's World Cup Betting Picks for Australia vs. France
- Australia Win by Exactly One Goal (+350)
- Australia Double Chance (-145)
- Australia to reach the Final (+400)
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