This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
With perennial favourites USA, Germany and Brazil eliminated, the Women's World Cup quarter-finals are set to run Thursday through Saturday with reasonably balanced pairings and hopefully more attacking football.
Looking for stats, odds and lineups for this match? Check out our Cheat Sheets.
SPAIN VS. NETHERLANDS
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The quarter-finals kickoff Thursday with Spain (-118) favored over Netherlands (+350). The betting market is clearly dismissing Spain's group-stage loss to Japan as irrelevant, while also ignoring the unbeaten form of the Dutch. Moneyline markets have not been a highly-efficient predictor of final score outcomes so far in the tournament.
These teams last met in 2021 with Spain winning 1-0, but both teams have progressed significantly since. Recent form (Spain 2.25 points/match compared to Netherlands 2.5) suggests a closer match than what the odds imply. The Dutch achieved a 1-1 draw against FIFA No.1-ranked USA and ought to be capable of scoring against No. 6-ranked Spain.
Both teams are averaging 3.75 goals per match in the World Cup (Netherlands scored seven against Vietnam) and a repeat of a dry, win-to-nil appears improbable. Markets are pricing Over 2.5 goals +115, both teams to score -115 and 2-3 goals a paltry -105. Both form and the more granular betting markets strongly imply a range of outcomes with a baseline of 1-1 extending to 2-1 either way, biased toward Spain.
Las Rojas prefer to have the ball at their feet, whereas the Dutch are comfortable hitting off the break. This is reflected in corner averages (across 56 matches) of 9.1 for Spain and 5.3 for the Dutch. Stylistically, the Spanish wing-backs tend to deliver multiple crosses and seek to win corners, whereas the Dutch rely more on diagonal balls from midfielders. This match projects very well for over 9.5 corners (+100), Spain team corners over 5.5 corners (-140) or higher and for Spain to easily win corner races and spreads.
In terms of a potential game script, both teams have scored roughly 20 percent of their goals in the first 15 minutes and 20 percent in the 16-30 minute slot. Consequently, 1H over 0.5 goals is -225, a fair fet, mathematically. In perspective, Manchester City are always favoured to score early, but at 21 percent actual goals in the first 30 minutes, City have only half the probability of either Spain or Netherlands women scoring in the first thirty. The attractive low-risk predictive outcomes therefore subsume high Spanish possession, high corners (12-to-13 vs. Women's International average of 9.4), and goal before 32nd minute at -120.
High shot volumes (Spain 16.5 average, Netherlands 13.9) are another area to target. Both teams enjoy a 20-percent conversion rate, making three goals just a bit more likely than two. It is also far from impossible that the match could boil over and produce more goals than the implied total suggests. The Spanish average 8.7 shots on target and will be peppering Daphne van Domselaar's goal at every chance.
GOALSCORER ODDS
Four players topping the Women's World Cup scoring charts will likely appear in this match:
- Jill Roord (4 goals) +400 anytime goalscorer (AGS); +1100 first goalscorer (FGS)
- Jennifer Hermoso (3 goals) +170 AGS; +500 FGS
- Alba Redondo (3 goals) +200 AGS; +550 FGS
- Aitana Bonmati (3 goals); +375; +1000
Roord offers exceptional value each way in light of her consistent goal-scoring output and knack of putting herself in exactly the right place at the right time. Redondo is one of the most exciting young talents to come to light in this tournament, crossing and shooting freely. Hermoso is arguably the most in-form female striker in the world, having led Barcelona F to a Champions League victory. Hermoso scores, takes some left-sided corners, a majority of penalty kicks and is usually solid for over 1.5 shots on target.
At negative odds, likely to concede a goal, and with the Netherlands displaying some of the finest goalkeeping in this tournament, a vanilla Spain moneyline proposition is wholly uninspiring. Inveterate favorite-backers would be better served by opting for Spain ML + BTTS at +350. Likewise, Dutch fans should pick up the additional +250 by playing Netherlands ML + BTTS at +850.
Women's World Cup Betting Picks for Spain vs. Netherlands
- Over 9.5 corners +100
- Goal before 32nd minute -120
- Hermoso over 1.5 shots on target (odds TBD)
- SGP: Spain ML + both teams to score +350
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