This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
With perennial favourites USA, Germany and Brazil eliminated, the Women's World Cup quarter-finals are set to run Thursday through Saturday with reasonably balanced pairings and hopefully more attacking football.
Looking for stats, odds and lineups for this match? Check out our Cheat Sheets.
SWEDEN VS. JAPAN
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The second knockout match of the quarter-finals features free-scoring Japan (+125) against the dour set-piece mechanics of Sweden (+225). The cacophony of sporting journalists crying out in unison that Sweden were undeserved winners against USWNT is both deafening and disingenuous. After all, tournaments are frequently won by goalkeepers — and yes, also by getting penalty kicks on frame. So, pundits from Vegas to Vienna are declaring an easy win for the Nadeshiko Nippon. Indeed, Japan is everything the U.S. was not, as they advanced cohesively in transition and have taken their chances clinically well (3/3 against Spain with only 22-percent possession).
However, while tall by Asian standards, the Nadeshiko average only 164.7cm; the Swedes tower over them at almost 171cm on average. Main threats Amanda Ilestedt (three goals) at 174cm, Fridolina Rolfo (two goals) at 178cm and Stina Blackstenius at 178cm enjoy a significant advantage against Yamashita's goal. South Africa, (the second shortest team at 161cm on average) outplayed Sweden but gave up their 1-0 lead to Rolfo, eventually losing 2-1 on an Ilestadt header. Sure, Japan won the Women's World Cup by beating USA in 2011, but the U.S., then as now, is not one of the taller teams.
There are no style points in Scandinavian soccer. It is as gritty and pragmatic as an early model Saab. The Swedes play to keep the scoreline low and to keep the ball where only they can reach it. Sweden's successful strikes have been concentrated 20 percent in 40th-45th+ minutes and 20 percent from 85th-90th+ minutes. They are more willing to create the necessary overload by bringing all defenders forward once little time is left. Otherwise, only Ilestadt goes to the back post and Rolfo runs up the center. Except at those two sensitive junctures, they will be willing to waste corners but keep the Japanese forwards marked.
Across all their matches in the past year, Sweden has averaged 7.6 corners per match (as opposed to Japan's 5.4) but has consistently exceeded this figure in WWC play. Sweden team corners over 4.5 (+105) has tended to be the best even money wager each time they have played. As Japan will be focused on plotting innovative counteroffensives, Sweden will likely win the corner races comfortably.
Considering the Japanese have scored in all their matches and that tournament leader, Hinata Miyazawa (five goals) is a likely starter, no goals at +700 is either incredibly stingy or there is some weight of money (smart or otherwise) expecting a turgid affair. A draw (+230) looks more appealing on a risk-adjusted basis than zero goals or either moneyline option, and it's not THAT appealing.
The public will probably still stack Japan and take the over 2.5 goals at +130 based on tournament momentum and trending advice. To the extent that Sweden average only 10 shots per match with an 18-percent conversion ratio (compared to Japan's 16.4 shots), this is somewhat understandable but may not be optimal. We are likely to see fewer shots in this affair than in the Spain-Netherlands match. Again, the granular odds are a better guide. 1-2 goals is -115 and 2-3 goals jumps to +100. Therefore, the range of outcomes is extraordinarily biased to 1-0/1-1/0-1 results.
With as little as 30-percent possession, depending on Japan for set pieces may be a fruitless endeavor, even if they triumph. One exception might be Aoba Fujino. RotoWire projects her to start as a right winger, putting her in position for a couple corners and to score or possibly assist on fast breaks, perhaps more so than Hikaru Naomoto, who was unable to share much of the spoils in the 4-0 routing of Las Rojas.
GOALSCORER ODDS
The short odds offered for the three primary Japanese goalscorers reflect the extent to which the public is keen on a multi-goal Japan victory but not at all the predictive implications of the market forecast for 1.5 total goals.
- Hinata Miyazawa (5 goals) +250 AGS (anytime goalscorer); +550 FGS (first goalscorer)
- Mina Tanaka (2 goals) +250 AGS ; +550 FGS
- Riko Ueki (2 goals) +250 AGS; +550 FGS
- Kosovare Asllani +400 AGS; +850 FGS
- Aoba Fujino (1 goal) +450 AGS; +900 FGS
- Amanda Ilestedt (3 goals) +900 AGS; +1800 FGS
- Elin Rubensson (1 goal) +800 AGS; +1600 FGS
Miyazawa is possibly fairly priced and ought to be the chalk from all indications. On this basis, Tanaka and Ueki are comparably rather expensive. A pivot to Fujino has deeper equity, though her minutes may be constrained. Ilestadt will be the main target woman for Jonna Andersson's and Kosovare Asllani's set pieces. She is by far the most viable wagering proposition at these prices. At a bare minimum, she ought to have a shot on goal (Odds TBD), probably more, and this may prove far better than picking a match winner.
Asllani is the first-choice penalty taker and primary direct free-kick taker. Her generous odds reflect that she has been subbed early in a few matches, though this may change in these final stages, especially if Sweden go down a goal. Eilin Rubensson took Sweden's last penalty after Asllani left the pitch and should not be completely ignored. Anytime goalscorer odds may blow out late in the game, creating a low-risk/high-reward opportunity.
Women's World Cup Betting Picks for Japan vs. Sweden
- Sweden over 4.5 corners +105
- Ilestadt 1+ shot on goal, TBD
- Miyazawa +250 anytime goalscorer
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