This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
A Wimbledon men's singles draw that started with 128 players is down to just two. Both players are chasing history in their own way; one trying to bolster his case for being the greatest to ever pick up a racquet, and the other searching for the greatest accomplishment of a career that many think hasn't been as successful as it should have been up to this point. Novak Djokovic is heavily favored over Nick Kyrgios, and that's not surprising given recent history. Djokovic has been practically unbeatable at Wimbledon in recent years, while many serve-reliant players of Kyrgios' ilk have seen their Wimbledon title bids fall one match short. Since 2003, the likes of Mark Philippoussis, Andy Roddick (three times), Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson and Matteo Berrettini have all served their way into the final, only to fall to one of the four players who have combined to gobble up every Wimbledon title over that span (Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray). Will Djokovic maintain the top players' recent stranglehold on Grand Slams titles, or will Kyrgios overcome the odds as the underdog in the biggest match of his life? Match odds for the 2022 Wimbledon men's singles final are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you may be able to find more favorable odds on your player of choice by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Novak Djokovic (-475) vs. Nick Kyrgios (+350)
Djokovic is one match from a 21st Grand Slam title and a seventh at Wimbledon. He's the heavy favorite in this championship match despite facing an opponent who has beaten him in both of their previous encounters. Djokovic's 27-match Wimbledon winning streak hasn't come without close calls, but his ability to answer the bell every time – including coming from two sets down against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals – is a testament to just how resilient and versatile the 35-year-old Serb is in best-of-five matches. If he can get a read on Kyrgios' serve, the best returner of all time should make holding much harder for his opponent than it has been up to this point.
If this was a third-round match, I would be picking a Kyrgios upset given his ability to take the racquet out of his opponent's hands with his big serve and his 2-0 career head-to-head edge against Djokovic. The circumstances are vastly different here, though. Kyrgios claims he doesn't care much about tennis, but the nerves of being in his first career Grand Slam final will still almost certainly affect him, while Djokovic is used to and relishes the big stage. The 27-year-old Aussie's third-round victory over 5th-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas was certainly impressive, but that's the only top-30 opponent Kyrgios has faced all tournament, as he has had just about the easiest path imaginable to a Grand Slam final, thanks in large part to benefiting from a semifinal walkover due to Rafael Nadal's abdominal tear. Kyrgios has plenty of talent and usually plays his best against the top competition, but he'll have to overcome both Djokovic and the weight of the moment to pull this one out. Taking advantage of Djokovic's tendency to start slowly will be imperative for the Aussie to build up a lead and gain belief that he can stun the tennis world.
Prediction:
Djokovic def. Kyrgios 4-6, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4
