This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of Wimbledon continues Saturday from the grass courts of the All England Club. Some of the best matchups of the tournament, at least on paper, are scheduled for Saturday as seeded opponents begin to face off against each other. Some of the top seeds in both singles draws have tricky matchups, while a contender on the men's side should continue to move on despite displaying some shaky form up to this point. A dangerous underdog will look to add to her robust collection of prominent Grand Slam match wins in a clash between two young American women, while another American will try to overcome some unfavorable history against her third-round opponent. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Having seen two matches from everyone in the draw, we now have a better idea of how players are handling the conditions at Wimbledon. Adding in their results on all surfaces this season and previous grass-court play helps paint a more complete picture. The stakes are highest at the Grand Slams, and the men play best-of-five set matches rather than the best-of-three seen at other ATP Tour events. Conditions vary from tournament to tournament, and even from day to day, but the fast pace and low bounces of grass generally favor more aggressive players, and especially those that possess big serves. Using this context can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Petra Martic (+225) vs. Jessica Pegula
Martic's game is better suited for grass, as she's looking to reach the Wimbledon Round of 16 for the third time while Pegula prefers slower surfaces and is in the third round here for the first time. Pegula's ranked 71 spots ahead of Martic at No. 9 in the world, but Martic won't be intimidated by the difference in ranking given her 4-1 career head-to-head edge over the American, including a straight sets win in Rome last year in their previous meeting.
Amanda Anisimova (+175) vs. Coco Gauff
This could be a prominent rivalry between Americans for years to come, and while the future appears to be a bit brighter for the 18-year-old Gauff, the 20-year-old Anisimova tends to play her best tennis as an underdog in big matches. Gauff has climbed to No. 12 in the rankings coming off her run to the Roland Garros final, but she looked vulnerable in the first round, getting pushed to 7-5 in the third by Elena Gabriela Ruse. The 25th-ranked Anisimova reached the 2019 French Open semifinals and has been a giant killer at Grand Slams. This year alone, she has beaten Naomi Osaka twice and Belinda Bencic in majors. Gauff has a significantly higher ceiling on serve, but if she struggles like she did in the first round (three aces, eight double faults), Anisimova's mix of timing and power will allow her to feast on Gauff's attackable second serve.
Honorable Mention:
Harmony Tan (+190) vs. Katie Boulter
Lock It In
Rafael Nadal (-550) vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Nadal hasn't looked his best early in this tournament, needing four sets in each of his first two matches. His first career meeting with the 54th-ranked Sonego shouldn't give Nadal too much trouble, though, even if Sonego's able to follow in the footsteps of Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis by taking a set. Nadal should only get better as this tournament unfolds as he gets used to the grass courts in his first Wimbledon appearance since 2019, while Sonego comes into this match with an uninspiring 0-7 record against top-25 opponents in 2022. Sonego's best Grand Slam result came at last year's Wimbledon, when he made the Round of 16, while Nadal's seeking a third consecutive Grand Slam title to extend his ATP record to 23.
Botic van de Zandschulp (-260) vs. Richard Gasquet
The 36-year-old Gasquet has done well to get to this point, but van de Zacndschulp is the significantly better player regardless of surface at this point in their respective careers. The 26-year-old from the Netherlands has climbed to No. 25 in the rankings while Gasquet's at No. 69, and van de Zandschulp beat Gasquet at this year's Australian Open in their only previous meeting. Gasquet has been to the semifinals of Wimbledon twice, but this is his first time past the second round here since 2016.
Honorable Mention:
Taylor Fritz (-475) vs. Alex Molcan
Value Bet
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+115) vs. Nick Kyrgios
Tsitsipas is a nice value as a slight underdog in what could be the match of the tournament thus far. The world's fifth-ranked player lost to the 40th-ranked Kyrgios 6-4 in the third on grass in the lead-up to Wimbledon and is 1-3 against the big-serving Australian, but Tsitsipas has a major edge in Grand Slam success as a three-time Australian Open semifinalist and 2021 French Open runner-up. Kyrgios has reached a pair of Grand Slam quarterfinals but it has been more than seven years since his last one at the 2015 Australian Open, so there's no doubt Tsitsipas has done a better job of handling the extended mental grind of best-of-five tennis.
Paula Badosa (+115) vs. Petra Kvitova
Like Tsitsipas, Badosa has appeal as a modest underdog against a dangerous but lower-ranked opponent. The fourth-ranked Badosa has dropped just eight games through two rounds, and this could finally be the signature deep Grand Slam run that's eluded the 24-year-old Spaniard to this point. Kvitova's a two-time Wimbledon champion and won Eastbourne the week before the tournament, so there's no doubting her ability on grass, but the 26th-ranked Czech is past her prime at age 32 and hasn't been past the fourth round here since capturing her second title back in 2014.
Honorable Mention:
Jack Sock (-180) vs. Jason Kubler
