This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
While Americans celebrate Independence Day on Monday, Round of 16 action will continue from across the Atlantic Ocean at Wimbledon. The last Grand Slam champion left on the women's side could be in trouble as the favorite against a higher-ranked opponent, while previous Wimbledon history dictates the favorite in a battle between evenly matched veterans. Among the men, top contenders should be able to avoid upsets against less established opponents. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
With three rounds in the book, players' form at this tournament is becoming a larger factor relative to prior results in 2022 and previous grass-court play. Weighing all those variables, as well as matchups, court conditions and playing style, can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Paula Badosa (+165) vs. Simona Halep
Halep's the only Grand Slam champion remaining in the women's singles draw, with her last triumph coming here in 2019, but she has since slipped to No. 18 in the rankings. Badosa's ranked fourth and coming off a straight-sets victory over another former Wimbledon champion in Petra Kvitova, which should give the Spaniard plenty of confidence heading into this one. Neither player has dropped a set in this tournament, but this is a significant step up in competition for Halep, who has yet to face a player ranked in the top 60.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Nakashima (+265) vs. Nick Kyrgios
Lock It In
Taylor Fritz (-450) vs. Jason Kubler
Fritz has quietly taken care of business all tournament, winning each of his first three matches in straight sets. The Indian Wells champion is having a breakout season, and Fritz is outplaying his No. 14 ranking if anything. Kubler has had a great run, and it's great to see the oft-injured Aussie finally healthy, but the 99th-ranked Kubler has yet to face an opponent ranked in the top 30. Despite his relatively easy path up to this point, Kubler was a set away from elimination twice in qualifying and again in the third round against Fritz's American countryman Jack Sock. Unlike Kubler's previous opponents, Fritz shouldn't have any issues closing the door down the stretch.
Amanda Anisimova (-330) vs. Harmony Tan
Undoubtedly fueled by her first-round upset of Serena Williams, Tan has put together the tournament of her life, but the locked-in Anisimova presents a massive step up in competition. Anisimova's coming off an impressive 6-7 (4), 6-2, 6-1 win over Coco Gauff, and the 20-year-old American is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the opportunity in front of her, as a semifinal run at the 2019 French Open gave her some much-needed experience deep into the second week of a major. If the 25th-ranked Anisimova can keep her nerve, she should consistently overpower the 115th-ranked Tan in rallies.
Honorable Mention:
Rafael Nadal (-700) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp
Value Bet
Ajla Tomljanovic (+105) vs. Alize Cornet
This match is close to a toss-up, but Tomljanovic is the better value as the slight underdog. Cornet's coming off a monumental win that ended No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek's 37-match winning streak, but Tomljanovic is seeking a second consecutive Wimbledon quarterfinal. The 32-year-old Cornet had never been to a Grand Slam quarterfinal prior to this year's Australian Open and is 1-5 in Round of 16 matches at majors. Tomljanovic has already beaten two top-20 seeds in this tournament, and she can take confidence from having beaten Cornet at Wimbledon last year.
Honorable Mention:
Elena Rybakina (-210) vs. Petra Martic
