This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The day sessions of the first Grand Slam of 2023 will take place Monday in Australia, which is Sunday night in the United States. Early action from the hard courts of the 2023 Australian Open includes plenty of prominent players. One all-time great is in danger of an early exit on the men's side, while a few young American women will be looking to get their 2023 Grand Slam experiences off to strong starts against opponents of varying difficulty. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Jack Draper (+200) vs. Rafael Nadal
Much like last year, there's significant uncertainty regarding Nadal's form heading into this tournament. In 2022, those concerns proved overblown as he won the title. This year, the No. 1 seed comes in having lost six of his last seven matches. He'll face one of the game's brightest young stars in Draper. The 40th-ranked Brit narrowly missed being seeded here, and he proved capable of handling the moment in Grand Slams with a straight-sets upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime at the US Open. Draper's big serve should allow him to get deep into sets, where Nadal's lack of match play could prove costly in big moments.
Tamara Korpatsch (+400) vs. Emma Raducanu
I originally had Catherine McNally here against Paula Badosa, but Badosa pulled out due to a thigh injury before the 21-year-old American could take her down. Raducanu's another player that picked up an injury shortly before the Australian Open, but she'll be able to play through her ankle issue. Injuries, along with a general lack of confidence and consistency, led to a disastrous 2022 campaign for the 2021 US Open champion, as Raducanu went just 17-19. The 20-year-old Brit's ceiling is significantly higher than that of Korpatsch, but Korpatsch is actually ranked one spot ahead of Raducanu at No. 76, and the German's a low-risk, high-reward bet at +400 odds.
Honorable Mention
Jiri Lehecka (+230) vs. Borna Coric
Lock It In
Coco Gauff (-350) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Gauff was dominant at the ASB Classic earlier this month, losing no more than five games in any match and just four total games over the last two rounds en route to the title. The 18-year-old American's already a top-10 player, and Gauff's well-rounded game allows her to match up well against any style. She should get through the opening round with minimal difficulty against Siniakova, who's an elite doubles player but has a 2-9 career record at the Australian Open.
Oscar Otte (-215) vs. Juncheng Shang
Shang did well to get through qualifying here, but the 17-year-old has yet to win a main draw match in his career on the ATP Tour. That first victory is unlikely to come against Otte, whose recent results suggests he's deserving of his current No. 74 ranking. The steady German is just 4-5 in his last five matches, but all five losses have come against players ranked in the top 70 while all four wins are against opponents outside that cutoff. The 194th-ranked Shang falls squarely in the latter category.
Honorable Mention:
Bernarda Pera (-425) vs. Moyuka Uchijima
Value Bet
Amanda Anisimova (-115) vs. Marta Kostyuk
This could be one of the more exciting first-round matches this tournament, as the 21-year-old Anisimova and the 20-year-old Kostyuk are two of the game's most talented young players. Kostyuk's coming off a strong run in Adelaide that included a win over Elena Rybakina, but that victory was only her second over a top-30 opponent in 15 tries since the beginning of 2022. The 29th-ranked Anisimova beat Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka at last year's Australian Open, and the American made the fourth round or better at three of four Grand Slams in 2022, while Kostyuk's only fourth-round appearance across 11 career Grand Slams came at the 2021 French Open.
Arthur Rinderknech (-190) vs. Yosuke Watanuki
Rinderknech has been a tough out since October. His 8-4 record over that span includes two wins over top-20 players, while his losses over that span all came against quality opponents in Sebastian Korda, Holger Rune, Jack Draper and Borna Coric. Watanuki is a few tiers below all the players that have managed to knock off the 45th-ranked Frenchman lately. Ranked No. 138, Watanuki is making his Grand Slam main draw debut at age 24.
Honorable Mention:
Bianca Andreescu (-140) vs. Marie Bouzkova
