This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The men's Round of 16 takes center stage at the Miami Open on Tuesday, with the entire field in action, and those eight matches will be accompanied by the first two women's quarterfinals. A top-three seed in each of the men's and women's draws could be in trouble Tuesday, while an American is well positioned to move on against a higher-ranked opponent. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Anastasia Potapova (+230) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula just won when these two faced off at Indian Wells, but Potapova pushed her to the limit. The final score was 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 for the American, and Pegula won only one more point in the match than Potapova. Since then, Potapova has grown in confidence by beating Coco Gauff en route to the quarterfinals here, and the 21-year-old Russian has turned into one of the toughest outs on the WTA Tour with a 10-2 record in her last 12 matches. This rematch will likely come down to the wire again, so the odds should be closer to even rather than having the third-ranked Pegula as the clear favorite.
Andrey Rublev (+155) vs. Jannik Sinner
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-700) vs. Tommy Paul
Paul won a thriller against Alcaraz in their only previous meeting -- 6-7 (4), 7-6 (7), 6-3 at last year's Masters 1000 event in Canada -- but Alcaraz is likely to get revenge on Paul in their second matchup. The world No. 1 is 14-1 this year, with his lone loss coming against Cameron Norrie in a match Alcaraz was comfortably leading prior to suffering an injury. Since returning from that injury, he proceeded to win six consecutive matches in Indian Wells and two more here, all without dropping a set. Sure, Paul's having a strong year with a 16-5 record that includes a semifinal showing at the Alcaraz-less Australian Open, but the 19th-ranked American is rightfully viewed as a significant underdog here. The previous loss to Paul won't bother the 19-year-old Spaniard, as Alcaraz had been 0-3 against Felix Auger-Aliassime prior to Indian Wells and handled the sixth-ranked Canadian 6-4, 6-4 there.
Daniil Medvedev (-1000) vs. Quentin Halys
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Taylor Fritz (-165) vs. Holger Rune
Both of these guys have cruised into the fourth round without dropping a set, but Fritz is rightfully viewed as the favorite in this match despite being ranked two spots back of Rune at No. 10. The American is 19-5 this year compared to Rune's 14-6 record, and a closer look at Rune's indoor/outdoor splits suggest the 19-year-old Dane hasn't quite reached Fritz's level when he has to account for elements like the sun and wind. Rune has an excellent indoor record at 33-10, including the Paris Masters title in November that's boosted him ahead of Fritz in the rankings, but he's still climbing towards .500 outdoors at 31-34.
Karen Khachanov (+105) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas was able to grind out a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win over Cristian Garin on Monday following a bye and a walkover, getting back in the win column for the first time since mid-February. The world No. 3 has made clear progress in his recovery from a shoulder injury relative to where he was when he lost to Jordan Thompson at Indian Wells, but Tsitsipas clearly wasn't 100 percent against Garin and produced limited pace on the backhand side. The 82nd-ranked Garin failed to capitalize on Tsitsipas' limitations, but the 16th-ranked Khachanov should do a better job of attacking that weakness. Tsitsipas is 6-0 in his career against the Russian, including a competitive 7-6 (2), 6-4, 6-7 (6), 6-3 triumph in the semifinals of this year's Australian Open, but Khachanov won't get a much better opportunity than this to get on the board in their head-to-head.
Botic van de Zandschulp (+125) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori