This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open Round of 16 rolls on Monday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. A few big names coming off deep runs at Wimbledon are poised to keep rolling at the US Open, while a talented player ranked outside the top 100 has the opportunity to pick up another big win as he continues to rebuild his ranking. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Rublev has looked vulnerable lately, as the No. 8 seed came into the US Open on a three-match losing streak and dropped a set in each of his last two matches here despite having yet to face a top-70 opponent. Draper is also out of the top 70 at No. 123, but that poor ranking is due to the 21-year-old Brit missing time due to injuries. When fully fit, the big-serving lefty has proven capable of notching numerous big wins at this very venue. He beat then-No. 8 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime at last year's US Open and took out No. 17 seed Hubert Hurkacz in the second round this year. Rublev's 2-0 against Draper, but both of those matches came last year, and one went to 7-5 in the deciding set.
US Open Odds: Lock It In
De Minaur has actually won the last two matchups between these two, including a recent meeting at the Canadian Open, but Medvedev leads their overall head-to-head 4-2 and is far more comfortable in the second week of Grand Slams. Medvedev has made the semifinals or better in three of the previous four US Opens, and the world No. 3 has played in the final of three of the last five hard-court majors, including his victory at the 2021 US Open. De Minaur's just 1-4 in Grand Slam Round of 16 matches, and the one time he advanced past the fourth round, he lost in the quarterfinals of the 2020 US Open. Both players prefer to counterpunch, but Medvedev has the far bigger serve, so de Minaur will have to work much harder to win points.
Sabalenka's 4-2 head-to-head edge over Kasatkina includes a straightforward 6-3, 6-3 Sabalenka win just over two weeks ago in Cincinnati. Between Sabalenka's big serve and Kasatkina's vulnerable one, the No. 2 seed should constantly find herself on the front foot in rallies, which is when Sabalenka's at her best. The Belarusian is 15-1 in her last 16 hard-court Grand Slam matches, while her 14th-ranked opponent has found the least Grand Slam success on this surface, with no quarterfinal appearances at the US Open or Australian Open, and a 17-16 combined record at the two, as opposed to 30-14 combined at the French Open (clay) and Wimbledon (grass).
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Zverev's especially dangerous when he's an underdog with less pressure on him, but Sinner has been the better player all year. The No. 6 seed is coming off a semifinal result at Wimbledon and a hard-court Masters 1000 title in Toronto, as the 22-year-old Sinner has moved up alongside Medvedev into the top tier of contenders behind Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev was right there as well prior to suffering a serious ankle injury last year, but he's struggled to replicate his pre-injury level consistently in 2023, having gone just 16-11 on hard courts this year while Sinner has posted a 28-6 record on this surface.
Jabeur has had an underwhelming season outside of Grand Slams, but winning a major is her primary goal at this point, and she's brought her A-game at the biggest tournaments. After losing in the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open last year, Jabeur got back to the Wimbledon championship match in 2023, and the No. 5 seed has battled her way back into the fourth round of the U.S. Open, putting her one match away from a fifth quarterfinal appearances in the last six Grand Slam events. Conversely, the 20-year-old Zheng is searching for her first Grand Slam quarterfinal in just her second Round of 16. While Zheng has the edge in power, constantly getting her 5-foot-10 frame down low for Jabeur's array of slices and drop shots without wearing down will be a tall order.