This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third Grand Slam of 2023 begins Monday, July 3 from the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London. Novak Djokovic has looked unstoppable at Grand Slams this year, and while rival Rafael Nadal (hip) won't be here to stand in his way, world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to avenge his French Open loss to Djokovic. The women's draw has much more uncertainty based on the odds, as defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina and Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka look to topple world No. 1 Iga Swiatek on Swiatek's least favorite surface.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at Wimbledon, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. In addition to Nadal, Karen Khachanov (back), Marin Cilic (hip), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Jenson Brooksby (wrist) and Jack Draper (shoulder) will sit out on the men's side. On the bright side, Jannik Sinner (leg), Felix Auger-Aliassime (knee), Matteo Berrettini (abdomen) and Nick Kyrgios (knee) are all in the gentlemen's singles draw and will hopefully be able to play after recently battling injuries of varying severity.
Top British ladies' singles hope Emma Raducanu (wrists), as well as Garbine Muguruza (personal), Jennifer Brady (foot) and Ajla Tomljanovic (knee) will miss this tournament, as will the suspended Simona Halep, and the pregnant Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber. On the other hand, Iga Swiatek (illness), Caroline Garcia (shoulder), Veronika Kudermetova (hip), Beatriz Haddad Maia (undisclosed), Jelena Ostapenko (illness), Elise Mertens (hip) and Paula Badosa (back) are in the draw. Out of that list, only Badosa may be in real danger of pulling out, as her injury kept her from competing at the French Open.
There's a big drop-off from Djokovic to Alcaraz and an even larger gap between Alcaraz and the rest of the men's field. Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka were close to co-favorites before the women's draw came out, and while Swiatek has now pulled well ahead after being placed in the opposite half of the draw from both other top contenders, a bevy of other players have realistic title chances as well. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including those that recently launched in Massachusetts.
Wimbledon Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Novak Djokovic [DK: (-160), FD: (-175), BetMGM: (-150), Caesars: (-175)] - Not only has Djokovic dropped only three total sets en route to winning the first two Grand Slams of 2023 at the Australian Open and French Open, but he has also won each of the last four Wimbledons. If Alcaraz were to lose early, Djokovic's title odds here could reach something ridiculous like -500. The elbow injury that bothered the 23-time Grand Slam champion before and during the French Open may still be present, but it clearly hasn't had much of an effect on Djokovic's performance.
In the Mix
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+350), FD: (+350), BetMGM: (+350), Caesars: (+350)] - Alcaraz took back the world No. 1 ranking with his first career grass-court title at Queen's Club, but that accomplishment won't erase the bitter taste of his French Open semifinal loss to Djokovic, in which they split the first two sets before Alcaraz started cramping early in the third and won only one game thereafter. Alcaraz is only 4-2 at Wimbledon in his young career, but he's looking much more comfortable on grass in 2023 and should be a comfortable favorite in every match until a potential final against Djokovic.
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+2000), FD: (+1700), BetMGM: (+1800), Caesars: (+1600)] - There's Djokovic and Alcaraz, and then there's everyone else. Sinner has the best odds of the remainder of the field. The No. 8 seed had an injury scare with his adductor in Halle but appears to have healed and is the favorite to get through to the semifinals in a section that also includes No. 9 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 4 seed Casper Ruud. Should he make the semis, Sinner would likely face Djokovic, against whom the 21-year-old Italian had a two-set lead in the quarterfinals of last year's Wimbledon before letting that lead slip away.
Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+2500), FD: (+2500), BetMGM: (+1800), Caesars: (+1600)] - Medvedev's 35-19 career record on grass is good for a .648 winning percentage, which is firmly between his outstanding .752 mark on hard courts and his pedestrian .519 showing on clay. The No. 3 seed will have to navigate a section of the draw full of dangerous floaters to play up to his seeding and reach the semis. In addition to No. 16 seed Tommy Paul, Medvedev's region has some of the toughest unseeded players, including Adrian Mannarino (three fourth-round appearances at Wimbledon), 2021 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Marton Fucsovics, 2016 Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic and 2023 Australian Open quarterfinalist Jiri Lehecka. Medvedev's potential quarterfinal opponents include No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, No. 12 seed and 2022 Wimbledon semifinalist Cameron Norrie, No. 22 seed and popular sleeper pick Sebastian Korda, No. 32 seed Ben Shelton and two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray.
There's yet another substantial drop-off in title odds after Sinner and Medvedev, with the next tier of contenders consisting of Sebastian Korda [DK: (+3500), FD: (+3000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+2800)], Alexander Zverev [DK: (+3500), FD: (+3100), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+2500)], Holger Rune [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)], Nick Kyrgios (+4000) [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+2500)] and Taylor Fritz [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+3000)]. Korda just beat Norrie and Frances Tiafoe on the grass of Queen's Club, and the 22-year-old American beat Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz at the Australian Open before hurting his wrist. Zverev's coming off a semifinal run at the French Open and could face Alcaraz in the fourth round here. Rune has two Masters 1000 wins over Djokovic in the past eight months and is Alcaraz's potential quarterfinal opponent. Kyrgios reached the Wimbledon final last year but has been limited to one match in 2023 by a knee injury, and Fritz is the top-ranked American at No. 9 in the world.
Sleepers
Andy Murray [DK: (+6500), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+5000)] - Murray won grass-court Challenger titles in Surbiton and Nottingham before losing to Alex de Minaur at Queen's Club. The 36-year-old Brit has won his home slam twice before, and he could have another deep run left in him. Murray could face Tsitsipas in the second round. They played a first-round classic at the 2021 US Open won 6-4 in the fifth by Tsitsipas, but Murray got revenge in 2022 on the grass courts of Stuttgart.
Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+10000), FD: (+7500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)] - With odds as long as +10,000 on DraftKings, Tsitsipas is a great value bet, even given some of his recent struggles and the tough early draw. Whomever wins the potential Tsitsipas-Murray match in the second round has a realistic path to the semifinals. Tsitsipas is 32-12 in 2023 and reached the Australian Open championship match for his second career Grand Slam final appearance.
Milos Raonic [DK: (+25000), FD: (+22000), BetMGM: (+20000), Caesars: (+15000)] - Raonic is finally back after missing nearly two years due to an Achilles injury, and while he picked up a shoulder injury in his first tournament back, that can likely be chalked up to the soreness of returning to competitive tennis. The Canadian's booming serve carried him to the final here in 2016, and if Raonic is fully healthy, he'll be a tough out in what could be his final Wimbledon appearance, making him worth a look as a deep sleeper.
Wimbledon Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (+310), FD: (+290), BetMGM: (+275), Caesars: (+250)] - Swiatek unsurprisingly managed to capture her third French Open title recently, but she'll be going from her best surface to her worst. The world No. 1 won three grass-court matches at the Bad Homburg Open before withdrawing Friday due to an illness. Even if she's 100 percent healthy for Wimbledon, Swiatek's far from a lock to go deep given her pedestrian 5-3 career Wimbledon record. She has by far the easiest draw of the top contenders, though.
In the Mix
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+550), FD: (+500), BetMGM: (+550), Caesars: (+450)] - Rybakina is the defending champ here, and she would have to fancy her chances in a possible final against Swiatek given Rybakina's 3-0 record against the world No. 1 in 2023. To get there, the No. 3 seed would potentially have to get through No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the semis, and Rybakina's possible obstacles before that point include Beatriz Haddad Maia or Jelena Ostapenko in the fourth round, as well as Ons Jabeur, Petra Kvitova or Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinals, not to mention a potentially tricky first-round matchup against big-hitting American Shelby Rogers. Her path isn't easy, but with arguably the best serve on the WTA Tour and plenty of power off the ground, Rybakina has the tools to navigate it nonetheless.
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+600), FD: (+550), BetMGM: (+550), Caesars: (+500)] - One of Sabalenka or Swiatek was going to get stuck with Rybakina in her half, and the No. 2 seed drew the short straw. Sabalenka reached the semifinals the last time she played Wimbledon in 2021 before being forced to sit out in 2022 because she represents Belarus. She could get a chance to avenge her French Open semifinal meltdown against Karolina Muchova in the Round of 16, and Sabalenka's 35-7 record in 2023 includes her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.
Ons Jabeur [DK: (+1700), FD: (+1500), BetMGM: (+1800), Caesars: (+1400)] - Jabeur has been hampered by injuries for much of 2023, but she has finally managed to get into a rhythm over the past month. Her recent results haven't been ideal, but Jabeur will be highly motivated after being one set away from fulfilling her childhood dream of winning Wimbledon last year. The No. 6 seed is arguably the best user of the slice and drop shot in the women's game, and Jabeur can get more offensive mileage out of those shots on grass compared to hard or clay courts.
To put things in perspective, only four men have title odds shorter than +3000 on FanDuel Sportsbook, while 10 women fall into that category. In addition to the four listed above, the other six are Petra Kvitova (+1000), Coco Gauff (+1400), Karolina Muchova (+2000), Donna Vekic (+2100), Jelena Ostapenko (+2500) and Barbora Krejcikova (+2900). Kvitova's a two-time Wimbledon champion, won a Masters 1000 title in Miami earlier this year and is coming off a grass-court title in Berlin. She certainly has what it takes to go all the way here, though the No. 9 seed was saddled with a difficult draw, potentially having to face Karolina Pliskova, Ons Jabeur, Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek consecutively from the third round onward.
Muchova has made the quarterfinals in two of her three previous Wimbledon appearances and is coming off a runner-up finish at the French Open. Krejcikova and Ostapenko are both former French Open champions, and Ostapenko recently beat Krejcikova in the final of the grass-court tune-up in Birmingham. Veronika Kudermetova [DK: (+3500), FD: (+3000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+3500)] also bears mentioning with this group, as the 12th-seeded Russian went 6-1 during the grass-court swing, including a win over Sabalenka, prior to hurting her hip. The seventh-seeded Gauff's chances seem overstated given her recent results, and the same is true for Vekic, who recently reached a grass-court final in Berlin but had notched only six wins across her previous seven tournaments.
Sleepers
Madison Keys [DK: (+3500), FD: (+4500), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)] - Keys has been to at least the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam eight times, and she reached that stage at Wimbledon in 2015. The big-hitting American doesn't have much of a Plan B to her game, but when Plan A is working, she can overpower any opponent. Plan A has certainly been working for Keys at the grass court tune-up tournament in Eastbourne, where she will face Daria Kasatkina in the championship match Saturday.
Beatriz Haddad Maia [DK: (+6500), FD: (+4800), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4000)] - Haddad Maia's coming off her best Grand Slam result, having just reached the French Open semifinals. The late-blooming Brazilian burst onto the scene last year with a pair of grass-court titles, so she's comfortable on this surface. Like Kvitova, Haddad Maia utilizes her lefty serve effectively on grass.
Karolina Pliskova [DK: (+8000), FD: (+9500), BetMGM: (+6600), Caesars: (+6000)] - Pliskova reached the final here in 2021, and the former world No. 1 has arguably the best resume of any player on the WTA Tour without a Grand Slam title. She's a bit past her prime at age 31, but the No. 18 seed will be a tough out since she still possesses one of the best serves in the women's game. A deep sleeper to note is Anett Kontaveit (+25000) [DK: (+25000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+30000), Caesars: (+30000)]. The former world No. 2 never managed to conjure up her best tennis under the pressure of Grand Slam play, but the pressure will be off here for Kontaveit, who announced that Wimbledon will be her last career tournament, as a degenerative back condition will prevent the 27-year-old Estonian from maintaining the rigorous practice and match schedule necessary to stay near the top of the game.
Sasha's Picks to Win Wimbledon:
There's a reason nobody has won a calendar slam since Steffi Graf did it in 1988, and no man has done it since Rod Laver in 1969. Djokovic is halfway there again, but it isn't a foregone conclusion that he'll get the third leg like he did in 2021. He executed the game plan of wearing Alcaraz down physically perfectly at Roland Garros, but doing so is far less feasible on grass given the far faster court speed. A healthy Sinner would also be a larger potential roadblock for Djokovic than anything Alcaraz would have to face en route to the final. Djokovic won the French Open as the underdog relative to Alcaraz, and it could be the Spaniard's turn to return the favor with the pressure off him at Wimbledon. Alcaraz is my pick to win Wimbledon.
The top half of the women's draw is wide open, and I don't believe Swiatek will take advantage of it, leading to the potential for a surprise finalist like Kudermetova. Whomever gets through the stacked bottom half will be battle tested, with the likes of Sabalenka, Rybakina, Jabeur, Kvitova and Muchova all down there. My pick to emerge from that group, and ultimately win the title, is Sabalenka.
