Closer Encounters: Relief Market Primer v2.0

I wrote my initial Relief Market Primer three weeks ago, but a follow-up article seems necessary since postseason outlooks have changed for several teams as the 2025 MLB trade deadline fast approaches at the end of this month.

First, let's revisit the MLB standings through the All-Star break (July 17th):

Since my last article, there has been a huge shake-up in the American League East. The Blue Jays have gone 12-4 to jump from third place in the division to first. However, that's not even the best record during this span, as the Red Sox have won 13 of 16 to solidify their position as contenders in the division and possibly beyond. Meanwhile, the Yankees have gone 7-9 to drop out of first place, while the Rays have lost 12 of their past 16 games to slide from second to fourth place.

There's been some movement in the AL Central as well, with the Guardians falling from second to fourth place while the Twins and Royals both moved up a spot. All three squads remain in contention for an AL wild card spot, but their position has gotten murkier over the past three weeks; all are four games back or more.

In the National League, the race for the East division crown will be exciting to watch as the Phillies and Mets sit within a half-game of each other going into the second half. The Brewers have picked up two games on the Cubs in the NL Central and have further solidified their position in the NL wild-card standings. The Cardinals and Reds remain wild-card contenders at 1.5 games back and 2.5 games back, respectively. Both teams have high-profile bullpen arms that could be traded at the last minute, especially with the NL West featuring two strong wild-card contenders in the Padres and Giants.

Ranking the RP-Neediest Teams

Now that we've revisited the standings, let's rank the teams that are most likely to acquire relief help at the 2025 trade deadline.

1. Phillies - Philadelphia's 4.35 bullpen ERA ranks 23rd in the league and is second-worst among playoff contenders. With Jose Alvarado currently serving an 80-game suspension and Jordan Romano stumbling to a 7.29 ERA, it's clear that one of the Phillies' biggest needs is at closer. 
2. Cubs - On the flip side, Chicago ranks sixth in bullpen ERA (3.54), but the team lacks a true star closer. That's not to sell Daniel Palencia short — the young right-hander has been outstanding since he took over closing duties in late-May, securing 12 saves in 13 chances while posting a 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across 34.1 innings — but would Cubs fans be comfortable with the third-year pro as their closer throughout the playoffs?
3. Yankees - Devin Williams has been remarkable since reclaiming the Yankees' closer role, posting a 1.98 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 18:2 K:BB across 13.2 innings while going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances. He doesn't appear to be losing his the job anytime soon, even if the Yankees become active on the relief pitcher market. Depth is needed, as Fernando Cruz (oblique) is dealing with a severe strain and looking at an extended absence, while Luke Weaver has struggled since returning from a hamstring injury, posting an 8.32 ERA with four home runs allowed across his last 8.1 innings. Don't be surprised if they add a left-handed setup man to compliment Tim Hill.
4. Tigers - Detroit enters the second half with the best record in baseball, but its bullpen could use depth. The Tigers' 4.13 bullpen ERA ranks 21st, and while Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle have been pleasant surprises in the late innings, they'd certainly welcome another reliable setup arm — or perhaps even a closer?
5. Red Sox - You could make a strong argument that Aroldis Chapman has been the best relief pitcher in baseball this season. As dominant as the southpaw has been, Boston could use a veteran right-hander who is capable of closing games. Raisel Iglesias, anyone? It's pretty clear that recently acquired Jordan Hicks — while serviceable — is not the answer. Meanwhile, Justin Slaten (shoulder) stopped throwing last week to focus on rebuilding strength in his shoulder. Greg Weissert leads the Red Sox with 15 holds, but he has a sub-20 percent strikeout rate and 4.24 FIP.
6. Mets - Edwin Diaz is one of the best closers in the league, but the bridge to "Sugar" in the ninth inning could use some reinforcement. New York overhauled its bridge to Diaz during last year's trade deadline and figure to be active on the relief market again in 2025. Brooks Raley is back now that his recovery from Tommy John surgery is complete, but the Mets could do with another arm.
7. Dodgers - Los Angeles has been a top-five team by bullpen ERA for six straight seasons, dating all the way back to 2019, so I was surprised to see Dodgers currently rank 24th in the category (4.38). For context, this is worse than the Marlins (4.05), White Sox (4.00), Reds (3.96) and Pirates (3.76). Dodgers relievers have also combined for the most home runs allowed with 56, but this may be due to the various multi-inning pitchers they deploy out of the pen. Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia form an excellent high-leverage triumvirate, but the team could use some depth, especially with Michael Kopech (knee) and Blake Treinen (forearm) currently on the injured list.
8. Blue Jays - Toronto's bullpen has been a bright spot for the team as they enter the second half of 2025 atop the AL East standings. The Blue Jays were 29th in bullpen ERA in 2024, but currently rank eighth in the category, even with their star closer sporting an ERA over 5.00. Other than that, Jeff Hoffman has been great, racking up 22 of the team's 28 saves through the All-Star break for a 78.5 percent team save share. His strikeout and walk rates are well above league average, while his 39.5 percent chase rate is a 100th percentile metric per Statcast. Less heralded arms like Yariel Rodriguez, Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little have stepped up in setup roles during Yimi Garcia's (ankle) absence, but the team might look to add more experience at the back end of its bullpen.
9. Mariners - Andres Munoz and Matt Brash have been dominant, but Seattle's relief corps otherwise leaves a lot to be desired. Jerry Dipoto loves to wheel and deal, so don't be surprised if they acquire another leverage arm or two.
10. Brewers - Trevor Megill is healthy and Abner Uribe and Nick Mears have been outstanding in setup roles this season. However, I could see Milwaukee's bullpen quickly taking a turn for the worse if Megill's durability issues resurface. Adding a reliable high-leverage arm would lessen a potential blow like that. I could actually see the Brewers making a huge move for a big-name bullpen arm.
11. Rays - Despite their recent slide, Tampa Bay remains in the postseason hunt. They open the second half with two three-game series at Steinbrenner Field against the Orioles and White Sox, but they get the Reds and Yankees on the road right before the trade deadline. Any potential trades — whether the Rays buy or sell — could come down to the wire. Tampa Bay already acquired Bryan Baker — the heir apparent to closer Pete Fairbanks? — with sights on the future, but the way Baker has pitched this season also strengthens their pen for a playoff push.
12. Rangers - Texas is currently 3.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot, hence its lower position in this ranking exercise. If the Rangers get hot over the next two weeks — they play nine of their next 13 games at home with series against the Tigers, Athletics, Braves and Angels — bullpen depth is a huge need for a potential playoff push, especially since manager Bruce Bochy has used six different relievers for the team's last six saves.
13. Giants - Camilo Doval has struggled since taking over closing duties in San Francisco. If those struggles continue into the second-half, we could see Randy Rodriguez or Ryan Walker — who has posted a 0.71 WHIP since he was removed as the team's closer — take over. They could also look to acquire a closer, but the Giants' primary need is a left-handed reliever, as Erik Miller (elbow) is out for at least another month. To this point, San Francisco relievers have combined for a 3.14 bullpen ERA, the best mark in the league.
14. Padres - San Diego was the most active team on the relief market last year and currently ranks second in the league with a 3.20 bullpen ERA thanks to their quartet of dominant high-leverage arms, Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon. The Padres don't really need a reliever, but I wouldn't be surprised if they added one.

I have omitted the Cardinals (1.5 GB NL Wild Card), Reds (2.5 GB NL Wild Card), Twins (4.0 GB AL Wild Card), Angels (4.0 GB AL Wild Card), Royals (4.5 GB AL Wild Card), Guardians (4.5 GB AL Wild Card) and Diamondbacks (5.5 GB NL Wild Card) from these rankings as they are currently on the outside looking in for playoff contention.

St. Louis is in a tricky spot, as they're currently in the thick of the NL Wild Card standings with upcoming series at Arizona and Colorado before returning home against San Diego and Miami. However, the Cards have a handful of players set to become free-agents at season's end — Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton included — that it'd be tough to envision them not getting pieces in return for those players. Trading Helsley and Maton doesn't mean they still can't contend.

Prognostication Corner

In my last article, I suggested plenty of trades that I'd now like to revisit. These involve closers only, including three high-end ones that I previously didn't predict trades for. Enjoy!

Disclaimer: As always, I have to remind you that I'm not very good at predicting relief pitcher trades. I'm also not an expert on prospects, so please don't put much stock into potential return packages. Try to pay more attention to the potential landing spot and subsequent impact to relief roles.

Emmanuel Clase, Guardians - Prediction: Cleveland trades Clase to the Chicago Cubs for No. 3 prospect Moises Ballesteros, No. 8 prospect Owen Caissie and right-hander reliever Porter Hodge (shoulder). Clase immediately supplants Daniel Palencia for the closer role for Chicago, relegating Palencia to setup duties, while Cade Smith takes over in Cleveland.

- Felix Bautista, Orioles - Prediction: Baltimore trades Bautista to Detroit for No. 4 prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long (or Jackson Jobe?), No. 5 prospect Josue Briceno and No. 11 prospect Troy Melton. The Tigers go "all-in" for 2025 and the near-future, inserting Bautista as their closer, while Will Vest, Tommy Kahnle comprise the bridge. Baltimore settles on Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano to close for the remainder of 2025.

Mason Miller, Athletics - Prediction: The Athletics trade Miller to Milwaukee for No. 5 prospect Logan Henderson, No. 7 prospect Braylon Payne, No. 19 prospect Craig Yoho and left-handed starter Robert Gasser. The Brewers turn to Miller as their closer, relegating Trevor Megill to setup duties. The A's promote Yoho from the minors to be their closer for the remainder of 2025. Hat tip to Rob Silver for previously mentioning Milwaukee as a potential trade destination for Miller — it makes complete sense given the needs of both teams.

David Bednar, Pirates - Prediction: Pittsburgh trades Bednar in-state to Philadelphia for No. 6 prospect Justin Crawford and No. 9 prospect Otto Kemp. Bednar immediately slots in as the Phillies' "primary" closer, albeit with a 60-to-70 percent team save share similar to Carlos Estevez last year. Meanwhile, the Pirates turn to Isaac Mattson, who has a 28.8 percent strikeout rate through his limited sample this season.

- Carlos Estevez, Royals - Prediction: Kansas City trades Estevez to the New York Yankees for No. 7 prospect Spencer Jones — a high price to pay for a reliever under team control through the end of next season. Estevez settles into a setup role for the Yankees, but opens 2026 as the favorite to close in the Bronx after New York picks up his $13 million option. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg reclaims the job he had in the second-half of 2024 for Kansas City.

Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox - Prediction: Chapman remains with Boston after the team went on a 10-game winning streak prior to the All-Star break.

- Raisel Iglesias, Braves - Prediction: Atlanta trades Iglesias to Boston for Hunter Dobbins, who the Red Sox recently lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Iglesias splits closing duties with Aroldis Chapman for the rest of the season, while Atlanta gives Dylan Lee and Daysbel Hernandez opportunities to close games.

- Ryan Helsley, Cardinals - Prediction: St. Louis trades Helsley to the Los Angeles Dodgers for No. 5 prospect Mike Sirota and No. 23 prospect Edgardo Henriquez. Helsley joins Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia as part of an imposing bridge to Tanner Scott, while also getting the occasional save chance. Meanwhile, St. Louis takes a matchup-based approach to the ninth inning between the newly-acquired Henriquez, JoJo Romero, Kyle Leahy and Riley O'Brien.

- Jhoan Duran, Twins - Prediction: Duran remains with Minnesota, at least for the remainder of 2025. If the Twins do trade Duran, it will either be on Deadline Day for an overwhelming return, or during the off-season.

- Kenley Jansen, Angels - Prediction: Jansen remains with Los Angeles, who field plenty of calls on the future Hall of Famer but elect to hold.

- Kyle Finnegan, Nationals - Prediction: Washington trades Finnegan and Paul DeJong to Seattle for No. 13 prospect Ben Williamson and Gregory Santos (knee). Finnegan settles into a setup role for the Mariners, while Jose Ferrer and Cole Henry take over closing games for the Nationals.

- Pete Fairbanks, Rays - Prediction: Tampa Bay trades Fairbanks to the Cubs for No. 14 prospect Jack Neely. Fairbanks takes on a setup role in Chicago, while the Rays go full-committee for the rest of 2025.

- Emilio Pagan, Reds - Prediction: Cincinnati trades Pagan to Philadelphia for a low-to-mid tier prospect. Pagan gives the Phillies another setup man that is capable of closing, while the Reds look to Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan to close games.

- Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks - Prediction: Arizona trades Miller (forearm) to Toronto for a low-tier prospect. If healthy, Miller pitches in a setup role, while Arizona turns Kevin Ginkel to close for the rest of the season.

- Chris Martin, Rangers - Prediction: Texas falls out of the AL Wild Card race and trades Martin to the New York Mets for a low-tier prospect. Martin maintains a setup role with no real impact on save chances.

If any of these predictions come true, the 2025 trade deadline would certainly be among the craziest we have seen in years!

As always, this article coincides with our MLB Closer Grid, where myself and my awesome colleagues update each team's closer hierarchies and team blurbs as injuries, transactions and performance trends occur. Additionally, you'll find my updated closer in waiting rankings here, which I'll continue to tweak leading up to the trade deadline and throughout the remainder of the season.

In the meantime, feel free to share your relief pitcher trade predictions with me @RyanRufe on X.