This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
As play begins on June 29th, the league has officially eclipsed the halfway point of the season, with 50.7 percent of the schedule completed. Some fan bases and fantasy managers might be in shock that the season is already halfway over while others cannot believe the pain and suffering from their favorite team and/or fantasy team(s) has only reached the halfway point. I admittedly have teams in both situations, as my favorite team is treading water at .500 while I have fantasy teams in my portfolio ranging from second place to narrowly avoiding the cellar, with a majority of my teams underperforming this season.
I wanted to check in on steals this week, because the numbers are still trending toward exceeding the 2023 stolen base total of 3,503. There have been 1,788 stolen bases in the 2024 season, which is 51 percent of what we saw in 2024. The chart below shows some high-level indicators through games played on June 28th in both seasons:
INDICATOR | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Games Played | 2408 | 2464 |
Stolen Bases Per Game | .72 | .73 |
Attempt Rate (full season) | 6.5% | 6.9% |
Success Rate (full season) | 80.2% | 77.9% |
Year-to-Year Attempt Change |
| 6% |
Year-to-Year Success Change |
| -3% |
The league continues to run more frequently than it did last season even though its overall success rate is lower than it was in 2023 as teams continue to adjust the way they control the running game. I would like to look into some team-level data to search for opportunities for
As play begins on June 29th, the league has officially eclipsed the halfway point of the season, with 50.7 percent of the schedule completed. Some fan bases and fantasy managers might be in shock that the season is already halfway over while others cannot believe the pain and suffering from their favorite team and/or fantasy team(s) has only reached the halfway point. I admittedly have teams in both situations, as my favorite team is treading water at .500 while I have fantasy teams in my portfolio ranging from second place to narrowly avoiding the cellar, with a majority of my teams underperforming this season.
I wanted to check in on steals this week, because the numbers are still trending toward exceeding the 2023 stolen base total of 3,503. There have been 1,788 stolen bases in the 2024 season, which is 51 percent of what we saw in 2024. The chart below shows some high-level indicators through games played on June 28th in both seasons:
INDICATOR | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Games Played | 2408 | 2464 |
Stolen Bases Per Game | .72 | .73 |
Attempt Rate (full season) | 6.5% | 6.9% |
Success Rate (full season) | 80.2% | 77.9% |
Year-to-Year Attempt Change |
| 6% |
Year-to-Year Success Change |
| -3% |
The league continues to run more frequently than it did last season even though its overall success rate is lower than it was in 2023 as teams continue to adjust the way they control the running game. I would like to look into some team-level data to search for opportunities for you to maximize the matchups if you find yourself in a position where you are looking for steals to move your team up in the standings.
By Attempted Frequency
You, like myself, are likely shocked to see that the Giants are the most frequently run-on team in baseball, given that Patrick Bailey does a majority of their catching and is third-best in baseball in caught stealing above average. This should serve as a reminder that the catcher is but one part of the equation, as explained in 1993 by Ray Knight:
The league has attempted more steals of second on Cal Raleigh (47) than any other catcher in baseball, and he's nabbed 12 of the 47 would-be thieves in the process. Conversely, the league rarely runs on Gabriel Moreno or the the duo of Freddy Fermin and Salvador Perez. The league average on attempted steals when the opportunity presents itself is seven percent, but certain teams present better matchups than others when fantasy managers are looking to chase steals.
By Success Rate
This view gives us a different story as none of the top three teams in the previous chart are in the top three slots on this one. The Cubs and Rays are in a dead heat for allowing the highest percentage of steals, while only the Cubs have yet to throw out at least 10 attempted thieves. Tampa Bay got to double-digits in Friday's game when Kevin Kelly picked off CJ Abrams in the 7th inning. The Royals are once again the toughest team to run against both by frequency and success rate, but note how far to the right the Mariners slide as the league continues to run against them even as their pitchers and catchers nab potential basestealers at a well above-average rate.
The Sweet Spot
The table below shows the teams that are below league average in stolen base prevention in both frequency and success rate. Ergo, these are the matchups to exploit moving forward for steals given these teams struggle both in volume as well as prevention:
TEAM | SB% | ATTEMPT RATE |
|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants | 83% | 9% |
New York Mets | 86% | 8% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 80% | 8% |
Chicago White Sox | 84% | 8% |
Houston Astros | 79% | 8% |
Washington Nationals | 80% | 8% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 88% | 7% |
St. Louis Cardinals | 87% | 7% |
Texas Rangers | 86% | 7% |
I bring up this table because it does not quite match what BaseballSavant shows as Catcher's caught stealing above average by team. Here are the top nine teams on their chart:
TEAM | CAUGHT STEALING ABOVE AVERAGE (CSAA) |
|---|---|
Rays | -4.9 |
Yankees | -4.6 |
Pirates | -4.1 |
Cubs | -4.0 |
Nationals | -4.0 |
Angels | -3.9 |
Reds | -3.7 |
Rangers | -3.5 |
Cardinals | -3.3 |
The Rays, Cardinals, Nationals and Rangers are the only clubs that appear on both lists, meaning some fantasy managers could have a blind spot if they are only considering the CSAA measure for deciding which matchups to exploit for steals.
The Schedule Ahead
TEAM | Most Frequent Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|
San Francisco Giants | Rockies (7), Braves (7), Dodgers (6) |
New York Mets | Phillies (7), Braves (7), Marlins (7) |
Toronto Blue Jays | Orioles (7), Angels (7), Rangers (6) |
Chicago White Sox | Tigers (7), Rangers (7), Royals, Twins, Angels, Guardians (6) |
Houston Astros | Angels (7), Mariners (6), Rangers (6) |
Washington Nationals | Phillies (7), Cubs (7), Marlins & Brewers (6) |
Tampa Bay Rays | Guardians (7), Yankees (7), Blue Jays (6) |
St. Louis Cardinals | Cubs & Reds (8), Nationals (7) |
Texas Rangers | Angels (10), Mariners (7), Red Sox, Yankees, Jays (6) |
The Phillies get 14 games against two teams (NYM & WAS) that struggle both with frequency and success rate, which should help the likes of Trea Turner and Bryson Stott. If we really want to get sneaky, the Angels have the most games against teams struggling in stolen base prevention with 30 games against such teams which should benefit the likes of Luis Rengifo, Zach Neto and Kevin Pillar, assuming he holds his playing time once Mike Trout (knee) finally returns.
Simply put, there are matchups to exploit for steals as the league continues to pace ahead of last year's changes, even as we're beginning to see more homers in recent weeks as sweltering heat has blanketed most of the country.
