This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
You'll have to be ready a little early for DFS baseball Monday, but only slightly. The seven-game slate starts at 6:40 p.m. EDT. So, you know, get started 25 minutes earlier than usual and you're good to go. Also, the Rangers-Marlins game is the second half of a doubleheader, in case that changes your decision making. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU at DET ($10,700): Valdez has gotten better by the season, with this year being a real step forward. The Astros hurler has a 2.64 ERA, and he's one of the best pitchers in baseball at suppressing home runs. Of course, that doesn't matter much against the Tigers. Detroit is last in runs scored and last in team slugging percentage.
Chris Bassitt, NYM vs. CHC ($10,000): Bassitt left the friendly confines of Oakland's ballpark, but it hasn't hurt him at all. He has a 2.77 ERA in home starts in 2022. The Cubs didn't deal at the deadline like many expected, but maybe they should have. After all, they are still 23rd in runs scored.
Tyler Anderson, LAD at ARI ($8,300): Anderson joined the Dodgers and suddenly he had a 14-3 record and has a 2.73 ERA. Plus, over his last six starts he has a 2.29 ERA, so he hasn't slowed down. The Diamondbacks are middling in runs scored, but a lot of their players have a better OPS on the road than at home.
Top Targets
With the playoffs nigh, Jose Altuve ($5,800) is getting himself all geared up. Over the last three weeks he has an 1.084 OPS. While he's been better at home, he has an 1.083 OPS versus lefties. Eduardo Rodriguez is left handed, and he has a 4.62 FIP this year.
Pete Alonso ($5,700) has 33 home runs, so there is a chance he beats the 37 he hit last year. This year he's slugged .523 versus righties and .492 at home. Javier Assad has a 2.93 ERA through 15.1 career innings, but a 4.61 FIP.
Bargain Bats
Though he is not a power hitter, Ke'Bryan Hayes ($3,400) has six home runs to go with 15 stolen bases. However, he has a proven track record of power against lefties, as he has a .469 slugging percentage versus southpaws in his career. Mike Minor isn't just a lefty. He's a guy with a 5.34 ERA over the last three seasons.
Lefties are keeping David Peralta ($2,900) in check, but the outfielder has an .805 OPS versus righties. Plus, Peralta has an .800 OPS over the last three weeks. The righty Jose Berrios has a 5.23 ERA, but on top of that he's let lefties hit .300 against him this season.
Stacks to Consider
Blues Jays vs. Rays (Ryan Yarbrough): George Springer ($5,500), Teoscar Hernandez ($5,000), Matt Chapman ($4,900)
Yarbrough is starting, though he may only last a few innings, which is typical for him. That's partially strategy, partially performance, as the lefty has a 4.69 ERA. He's also let righties hit .281 against him since 2020, which is right up the alley of the righty-heavy Jays.
Springer will be leading off for the Jays, and he's racked up 74 runs in 112 games, not to mention 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He also has an .863 OPS versus righties since 2020. Hernandez is back from paternity lead, and the proud papa is primed for a nice game. He has an 1.060 OPS against lefties over the last three seasons. Chapman has enjoyed his move from Oakland to Toronto. He has an .882 OPS at home this year.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson): Freddie Freeman ($5,600), Will Smith ($5,400), Max Muncy ($5,000)
Yes, Nelson's first start went great. He pitched seven innings of shutout ball. However, at Triple-A he had a 5.43 ERA. Also, these are the Dodgers. I have more faith in LA's MLB-best offense than a pitcher who got tuned up in the minors (even if it is a hitter-friendly league down there).
Freeman's first year as a Dodger has been incredible, as he's slashed .331/.403/.527 with 103 runs, 90 RBI, 19 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. He also has an 1.002 OPS versus righties since 2020. Smith is a catcher with a .351 OBP and 21 home runs. He has an .880 OPS on the road as well. Muncy is a lefty, and he has 19 home runs. On top of that, he's finally been turning things around, as he has an .805 OPS over the last three weeks.
Rangers at Marlins (Bryan Hoeing): Marcus Semien ($5,100), Adolis Garcia ($4,500), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,200)
We have Hoeing in line for a spot start in the second half of this doubleheader. There is always the fear in a doubleheader of a guy being on the bench for the second game, but then again maybe they sit for the first game and are primed for the second one. What I know is that Hoeing has a 5.30 FIP at Triple-A this year and an 8.11 FIP in MLB.
Semien has racked up 21 home runs and 24 stolen bases, his first 20-20 season. He also has an .829 OPS on the road in his first season as a Ranger. Garcia has joined Semien in the 20-20 club with 24 homers and 23 swiped bags. He's slugged .472 against righties, and it's easier to steal second with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Lowe has an 1.149 OPS over the last three weeks. He also has a .931 OPS in away games on the season.
