This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's seven-game main slate features very little in the way of mid-range pricing for pitchers, leaving prospective owners to decide whether they want to spend up in two spots or take a chance with a low-cost option. On the offensive side, we have several hurlers who have taken it on the chin in recent times, giving us no shortage of stacking opportunities.
Pitching Overview
Patrick Corbin ($10,800) has shown the ability to get strikeouts and limit walks while throwing groundballs at a 46 percent clip. This is a skill set that can work against any lineup, but Corbin faces a particularly tough matchup against the Braves, who hold a top-10 wOBA and ISO against southpaws this season.
Caleb Smith ($10,600) is another lefty who can get strikeouts but gives up far too many homers (1.6/9) and walks (nine percent rate) to be considered an elite option. He will take on a D-Backs lineup that holds the third-highest ISO against left-handed pitching this season (.217).
A common entry point Monday will likely be Chris Paddack ($10,200) as he takes on the Orioles. Baltimore is a bottom-10 team against right-handed pitching according to wOBA and will be without the benefit of a designated hitter in a fairly big ballpark. While Paddack does give up his share of homers, it's worth noting that the Orioles hold the third-lowest ISO on the road this year.
Sonny Gray ($9,400) has been on an absolute tear of late, recording at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his last five starts. Gray should be able to put his elite 55 percent groundball rate to good use, as he will face a Pirates offense that hits grounders at a 47 percent clip, which is good for the third highest mark in the league.
Brad Keller ($8,400) and Merrill Kelly ($8,200) are two unexciting pitchers with favorable matchups. Keller and his groundball-heavy profile will take on the Blue Jays, while Kelly will look to use his impeccable command in a matchup against the Marlins. While each can be played, the stronger option would seem to be Keller, as he doesn't give up nearly as many homers and has logged a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings this month.
Jaime Barria ($7,200) is an interesting low-cost play thanks to the 2.04 ERA he has logged in 17.2 innings at home in 2019. He draws the Tigers, who hold the lowest wOBA (.280) and highest strikeout rate (27 percent) against right-handed pitching this season.
Key Values
Thomas Pannone has performed well at Triple-A this season but hasn't quite figured out how to pitch at the highest level, as evidenced by the 6.39 ERA he has logged in 25 games (three starts). Meanwhile, Whit Merrifield ($4,900) has shown good power against his opposite hand, logging a .258 ISO in 128 at-bats.
It's hard to express just how much Jordan Zimmermann has struggled in the past month, as he has allowed a .738 slugging percentage and 24 runs in 15.1. frames. This should mean a nice matchup for Kole Calhoun ($4,600) who has tallied a .228 ISO against right-handed pitching.
It would be difficult to find a much better spot for Jesse Winker ($4,100) at this price, as he will take his .240 ISO against right-handed pitching into a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has been blasted to the tune of a .603 slugging percentage in 31.1 innings against left-handed hitters.
All indications are that Jimmy Yacabonis will take the mound for the Orioles on Friday. This is great news for DFS players, as he has allowed eight homers in just 35.2 frames, contributing to a 6.81 ERA over that span. Franmil Reyes ($4,000) has slowed a bit to open the second half of the season but has dominated right-handed pitching overall, logging a .300 ISO in 247 at-bats.
Brian Anderson ($3,700) has largely flown under the radar as a DFS asset but may be worth a look against Kelly thanks to the .201 ISO he has logged against righty Pitching. Kelly has had a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the yard against right-handed hitters, allowing 12 homers in 64 innings.
Stacks
Angels against Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers)
Kole Calhoun (OF - $4,600) Matt Thaiss (1B/3B - $3,400) Shohei Ohtani (OF - $5,200)
DFS players should do whatever they can to try to fit in a stack against Zimmermann, and Thaiss' price will go a long way to making that possible. Thaiss has shown patience and power in the minors and has hit four homers in just 37 at-bats with the big club this year.
Reds against Jordan Lyles (Pirates)
Jesse Winker (OF - $4,100) Yasiel Puig (OF - $4,400) Josh VanMeter (3B/OF - $3,700)
We've already talked about Lyles' struggles against lefty hitters but prospective owners should note that the 28-year-old is vulnerable against same-handed hitters as well, as we can see from the 1.6 HR/9 rate he has tallied in 51 innings. Among the hitters, VanMeter makes for an intriguing lower-cost option due to the .250 ISO he has logged against right-handed pitchers in 60 at-bats.
