This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Unlike most Saturdays, we have nine games to work with on the main slate. That makes it more of a typical player pool than usual, with lots of decent options both with arms and bats and less concern for avoiding chalk with roster rates likely to be more spread out.
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw ($9,900) boasts the best skills profile among the pitchers in the pool and offers the upside to return value at his salary. He's topped 30 points twice in his last three starts, but has also bottomed out twice in his last five outings. Add in a start at Coors Field, and Kershaw appears primarily suited for a large-field tournament contest.
Framber Valdez ($9,700) and Joe Musgrove ($9,600) represents top-tier cash options. Musgrove has a bit higher of a ceiling thanks to an inflated strikeout rate, though he's stumbled in two starts out of the All-Star break by only tallying 3.3 and 7.2 DK points. The Twins are also a tough matchup with a league top-five wOBA. Valdez has been a near lock for 18 DK points every time he takes the mound this season, and Seattle is an average matchup.
Jakob Junis ($7,700) looks to be a value option. He should be back to fully stretched out – or at least close to it – and faces a Cubs' lineup that is distinctly mediocre.
Ian Anderson ($6,900) and Glenn Otto ($6,500) are the final two pitchers I'd consider. Anderson is a large-field tournament play as he's shown the skills to triple his salary in DK points. He was dreadful the last start, but had managed 13.9, 14.4 and 19.2 DK points across his three prior appearances. A matchup against a middle-of-the-road offense in Arizona could offer him the chance to turn in a performance on the higher-end of his range of outcomes. Otto is a value play with considerable risk baked in. He lacks the ceiling of Anderson, but has also largely had a safer floor of double-digits - an OK outcome given his value. The Angels offer one of the most exploitable lineups at this point in the season.
Top Hitters
The Cardinals are in a good spot Saturday by facing Erick Fedde at Nationals Park, one of the best parks for home run hitters. Paul Goldschmidt ($6,200) is valued all the way up, but Nolan Arenado ($5,400) checks in at a more reasonable point.
Alex Bregman ($4,400) has produced six extra-base hits across his last 10 games, yet his salary has curiously fallen. Yordan Alvarez and others provide more upside in the Astros' lineup, but Bregman's salary is right in a matchup against the contact-prone Chris Flexen.
Matt Olson ($5,500) isn't in a positive hitting environment, but will draw a matchup against Corbin Martin. Martin has pitched sparingly at the big-league level this season, but has a 13.4 percent walk rate and a 48.2 percent hard-hit rate against.
Value Hitters
Nathaniel Lowe ($3,200) has found some power of late by posting a .650 slugging percentage and .950 OPS across 10 games. That's not predictive, but he does face Chase Silseth on Saturday and he's given up six homers in 24.2 innings.
Darin Ruf ($3,400) has crushed lefties both this season (.280 ISO, .389 wOBA) and throughout his career. He's also generally hit second or third against southpaws this season. A matchup against Drew Smyly is another positive, so Ruf checks a lot of boxes.
As can be expected, most Dodgers are valued up given both the quality of their lineup and a game at Coors Field. Trayce Thompson ($2,800) represents a cheap path to exposure to both the offense and positive hitting environment.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals at Nationals (Erick Fedde): Dylan Carlson ($4,100), Tyler O'Neill ($4,200), Nolan Arenado ($5,400)
The Cardinals appear to be in a great spot. Fedde has among the lowest strikeout rates in the pitcher pool and a double-digit walk rate while also serving up 1.3 HR/9. Add in a positive park environment for hitters and a Cardinals lineup that's back to full strength and this is a top stack to target.
Atlanta vs. Diamondbacks (Corbin Martin): Ronald Acuna ($4,800), Dansby Swanson ($5,300), Matt Olson ($5,500)
Martin has walked a very narrow path to relative surface-level success in a small sample this season. However, the flaws in his skill profile have already been discussed and Atlanta's lineup should be able to take advantage. Acuna hasn't performed to expectations, but his salary has dipped to the point where he's worth selecting.
