DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

PITCHER

Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. STL ($8,400): Keuchel has been proficient at home this season, posting a 3.17 xFIP, 20.7 percent K rate and just a 5.2 percent BB rate, while the Cardinals are 23rd against left-handed pitching with a 92 wRC+. Essentially, the Cards are subpar against lefties for eight of nine batters, with Stephen Piscotty redeeming the team slightly as he absolutely rakes against them. Vegas has this game at a solid run total of 8.5, but has Keuchel favored at -154.

Michael Pineda, NYY vs. TOR ($7,900): Pineda seems to consistently underperform given his peripheral stats, but that doesn't mean he's not an affordable high-upside play. Since the All-Star break he's rocked a 3.63 xFIP, 25.7 percent K rate and just a 7.9 percent BB rate, and he has gone at least six innings in five consecutive outings. Despite the offense being known for its power, the stats haven't backed up that potency of the Blue Jays lineup, as they rank 25th in the league with an 86 wRC+ to go with a subpar 24.8 percent K rate over the last 30 days. Even in context of the entire season, the Jays have just a 94 wRC+ away from home.

CATCHER

Nick Hundley, COL vs. WAS ($3,200): Hundley is a below-average hitter, but as a righty he has decent enough numbers against lefties with a career 96 wRC+. Opposing starter Gio Gonzalez has a solid 4.07 xFIP against righties this season, but he's still allowed 1.19 HR/9 and has struggled on the road to the tune of a 4.58 xFIP. The road xFIP combined with the hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado likely represents troubles ahead for Gonzalez. Hundley, at just $3,200, gives cheap access at a tough position to an offense Vegas projects to score over five runs.

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz, BOS at BAL ($5,400):Yovani Gallardo has allowed a 5.79 xFIP and 1.56 HR/9 to lefty bats this season, and now he has to pitch to Ortiz and the Red Sox offense. Good luck! Ortiz's numbers at Fenway Park are simply bonkers, but his 177 wRC+ against righties this season holds water regardless of where the game is taking place. Plus, Baltimore is just as hitter friendly as Fenway.

Joey Votto, CIN vs. MIA ($5,200): If you aren't spending up on first base tonight, sorry, you're just not doing it right. After a solid but pretty average first half, Votto has gone superhuman in the second half with a 231 wRC+. His ISO at Great American Ballpark is also 34 points higher than on the road. He faces a Marlins righty in Jose Urena, who has allowed a 6.45 xFIP to lefties this season.

SECOND BASE

Steve Pearce, BAL vs. BOS ($4,200): Pearce hasn't gotten a start in the field since Aug. 8, which is a bit of a concern. He has come in to pinch hit in each of the last two games, so after an off day Monday he may come back into the lineup Tuesday. After spending most of his year either with the Rays or on the DL, he has been as dominant as they come against left-handed pitching, recording a 200 wRC+ and .317 ISO. Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has been a little better of late, but he finds himself as the underdog in a 10-run over/under game away from home, and he has allowed a 5.16 xFIP and 2.17 HR/9 against righties this season.

THIRD BASE

Travis Shaw, BOS at BAL ($3,900): Shaw will likely be the third leg of a strong run of lefty bats for the Boston lineup with Ortiz and Jackie Bradley Jr. slotting in before him. As mentioned before, Gallardo has struggled mightily against lefties this season, allowing a 5.79 xFIP, and Shaw has a solid 108 wRC+ against righties this year.

SHORTSTOP

Manny Machado, BAL vs. BOS ($5,000): Machado has a pretty even split lefty v. righty, but that's not to say he doesn't hit lefties like Eduardo Rodriguez well. He's just so good he can hit for great numbers against all pitchers regardless of handedness. He has a home wRC+ against lefties of 169 this season, and he has a .291 ISP this month.

OUTFIELD

Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS at BAL ($4,900): Bradley finds himself in the middle of a powerful triumvirate of lefty bats in the Red Sox order between Ortiz and Shaw. Away from home, Bradley has a 147 wRC+ and spectacular .322 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Mark Trumbo, BAL vs. BOS ($4,400): Why talk about every game when you have a wonderful 10-run over/under in Baltimore between two offensively talented teams and two poor pitchers? Trumbo is a victim of lefty split deception, as at first glance his 75 wRC+ against lefties appears to be quite poor. However, over the course of his entire career his wRC+ is actually 13 points higher against lefties than righties. So, why has he been so bad against southpaws this season? Put simply: bad luck. His BABIP against lefties sits at an unsustainable .160 that's just begging for a positive regression. His ISO against lefties this season is actually higher than against righties despite his wRC+ being 60 points less (and BABIP .175 points less). His batting average sits at just .190 with that crazy low BABIP, but Trumbo still has 10 home runs against lefties this year. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez has given up 2.17 HR/9 against righties this season.

Ryan Raburn, COL vs. WAS ($3,300): Raburn was brought to Colorado for his ability to hit against lefties, with a wRC+ of 120 against them over the course of his career. Last season, the wRC+ against southpaws reached a new level as he had a 173 wRC+ and .265 ISO with eight home runs in just 151 at bats. It hasn't quite panned out as well as the Rockies had hoped, with a 28.1 percent K rate and wRC+ under 100, but at least part of that can be attributed to a .250 BABIP. The ISO against lefties, after all, sits at a very respectable .234 with four home runs in 77 at-bats.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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