This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Nine games are on our main slate Saturday evening, with first pitch at 7:10 EDT. Only three arms are 10k or greater, one of which is in Coors Field, and only one more is higher than $9,000, which makes pitching a bit challenging but should open up opportunity as well, with no option garnering huge usage, and plenty of offense to pick from to boot.
Pitching
Framber Valdez ($10,400) is in the best form of the top-three arms and arguably has the softest matchup, so if you're paying for at worst a stable floor, he looks like the right choice. But as mentioned in the intro, pitching isn't something we have to pay for Saturday. Johnny Cueto ($9,900) didn't quite get to the 10k tier, nor should he for his talent level at this stage in his career, but the matchup with Oakland and its 77 wRC+ and 24.1 percent K rate surely will make him as popular as any on this slate.
The next tier down doesn't move the needle much either, unfortunately. Ian Anderson ($8,500) has GPP upside, but he's been far too inconsistent to trust, even in a matchup with Arizona. Ranger Suarez ($8,400) might be the standout. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings and faces a Pittsburgh lineup that's fanning at a big 26.2 percent clip while posting a meager .286 wOBA and 83 wRC+.
Right or wrong, I'm drawn to Dakota Hudson ($6,900) at this price. If we believe he can give the Cardinals 90 pitches, that gives him a chance at 5-6 innings, potentially qualifying him for a quality start and/or a win. That Nationals don't give us much upside against, striking out only 19.7 percent of the time, but the below average 94 wRC+ suggest Hudson can limit damage. A 3-4x return is well within reach.
Top Targets
Most eyes will immediately go toward Dodger bats in Coors Field against lefty Kyle Freeland, who has a 5.66 ERA and 5.06 FIP at home. Mookie Betts ($4,500) seems obvious, but Freeland allows a .418 wOBA to lefties opposed to a .365 to righties, seemingly bringing Freddie Freeman ($4,300) into play. This seems like a smash spot, and with cheaper pitching available, these two should be popular. But don't overdue it, as Freeland has oddly found success against all Dodgers, as the lineup is hitting just .196 against him in 216 at-bats, and this pair is just 9-for-43 (.209) combined. I'm not fading, just not forcing either into builds.
I unsuccessfully suggested stacking Cardinal bats Friday, but I'm tempted to go right back to that well Saturday against Erick Fedde, who has allowed 13 runs in his last 13.0 innings. That puts Paul Goldschmidt ($4,400) atop the wish list thanks to a .402 wOBA against righties to date. Nolan Arenado ($3,800) gives us a slightly cheaper in if necessary to go down, and he comes in with a .373 wOBA and 146 wRC+.
Yordan Alvarez ($4,600) is more appealing singularly than an Astros stack against Chris Flexen, who will be facing Houston for the fifth time this year, and has limited them to seven runs in 24.2 innings. Alvarez has a .496 wOBA, 234 wRC+ and .420 ISO against righties and is 4-for-12 with two homers against Flexen.
Bargain Bats
I am a noted Braves fan, and as such, rarely trust their bats when seeing an arm for the first time. But Michael Harris ($3,300) is a rookie, so he's seeing everyone for the first time. He has a team-leading .382 wOBA against righties, adding a .265 ISO. Pair that with Corbin Martin allowing a .378 wOBA, which rises to .422 on the road, and a .962 OPS to lefties, and there's plenty of appeal. Matt Olson ($3,800) works nicely as well if you can afford him. And if you really trust the splits and need a dirt cheap option, consider Eddie Rosario ($2,300), who is certainly in line to start against the righty, and quietly is 4-for-10 in his last three games.
Drew Smyly doesn't work enough innings for us to use him on the mound despite some decent splits, and also not long enough to stack against. But the Giants also don't have a bat priced above $2,800 as they limp into the homestretch of the season, so there's some opportunity. Darin Ruf ($2,600) is a mainstay in this section when a lefty is on the mound thanks to a .389 wOBA and .289 ISO against lefties. Austin Slater ($2,400) likely has less upside and a safer floor, and both of these options should hit atop the lineup.
Arizona's lineup doesn't scare anyone, and they have poor splits against righties. But Ian Anderson allows a .395 wOBA to righties at home, where he has a 6.43 ERA, 5.17 FIP and 1.81 WHIP. Carson Kelly ($3,100) isn't certain to be in the lineup, but has averaged 17.4 FDP across his last seven, while Christian Walker ($2,900) always offers power upside.
Stack to Consider
Phillies vs. Pirates (Mitch Keller): Kyle Schwarber ($3,300), Darick Hall ($2,800), Alec Bohm ($2,800)
This is a weird slate for me. I like mini stacks far more than a full three- or four-man build, so sticking with the weirdness, lets look at a cheap Phillies lineup. Keller on the bump has been unlucky, as his 4.66 home ERA isn't backed up by a 3.69 FIP and he's been BABIP'ed to the tune of .326. But this trio offers some GPP upside in Schwarber and Hall, and some stability in Bohm. Schwarber sports a .339 ISO against righties and Hall sits at .299. Bohm, meanwhile, is seeing a big ball, with a 14-game hitting streak that's seen him amass 14 hits in his last four games.
