This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
If you're tired of hearing about my glorious start to the fantasy season, don't worry, regression will rear its ugly head eventually as my .440 roto BABIP begins to tumble. But getting off to a big start in the first quarter of the season with plenty of FAAB money left in all leagues means I have a greater margin for error than those chasing me — especially since batting average and pitching ratio categories are my strong suits. Unless I get hammered by injuries, I don't have to chase sketchy two-start pitchers like I did last year after losing Matt Harvey, Gerrit Cole and eventually, Stephen Strasburg. Moreover, I can address specific deficiencies in counting categories like HR, SB or K as needed.
Heading into Week 8, I am leading five of my seven NFBC leagues (two 15-teamers, five RotoWire Online Championship 12-teamers) by an average of eight points. Based on the mild bidding in a couple of leagues (Koda Glover for $109 with no backup bids? Come on), some of my opponents have mailed it in already. In most other spots, I've got a target on my back, especially from those who read the Barometer and really want to stick it to me.
I have identified a real weakness, though. I feel like I'm overbidding and spending too many FAAB dollars every week, since there's always some sort of roster improvement to make. Some players I feel I can't live without. My aggressiveness with bidding has shaved quite a few dollars off my budget, which is money that probably would have come in handy later in the season. Looking back at my waiver releases, there haven't been too many premature drops outside of letting go of Justin Bour in three 12-teamers right before his explosion.
It's also frustrating when a player you've been tracking all week to bid on has a big weekend right before Sunday night bidding, which inevitably raises their price. Many of us could have snagged Koda Glover for under $30 in most places until his Sunday save, Devon Travis could have still been reasonably priced if not for his hot week, and there's always that one guy in our league who will pay top dollar for a player that just had a career week.
It's important to identify what we're paying for with each bid. What's a free agent's value to our team? Are they a long-term addition, or are we are bidding on a short-term rental because they're playing in Colorado or Arizona this week? Are we overbidding on a .260 career hitter who just had a .350-4-8 week, and wrongly buying high before the eventual letdown? Baseball is just so cyclical, and this column encompasses just that. Every week, you see my risers falling and my fallers rising. Understanding and harnessing the flow of a player is what separates the annual seventh-place guy from the real roto beasts.
Buying low is something I'm always actively seeking to do. I can either drop that buy-low player if I'm wrong or potentially catch lightning in a bottle. That's what I did with Jharel Cotton this week on one team, as he will be called back up to the big club sooner than later. Whether he's fixed his issues and can live up to expectations is unknown, but it cost me four FAAB bucks to find out on a team where I had a disposable roster spot. If he's back in the rotation next week, I don't have to start him, and if I don't want to keep him, that's okay too.
Going with the flow isn't the way to dominate your competition and win leagues. Do your best to stay one week ahead of your competition if your roster allows you that flexibility. Don't be afraid to jump on contrarian opportunities or players that are underperforming, as the path less traveled can often be the one that leads to glory.
RISERS
Corey Dickerson, OF, TB
Whoa there. What is going on in Tampa? We all knew Dickerson as a budding stud with issues against lefties from his days in Colorado, and after dealing with plantar fasciitis for a while and getting exiled to a powerless park, we didn't expect to hear all that much from him. Dickerson did hit 24 homers in 148 games with the Rays last year along with a paltry .245 average, but he's on another stratosphere altogether this season, leading the charge of a homer-happy Rays squad. Dickerson has mashed five dingers over his last five games and is one of 20 guys who have hit 11 or more this year. What's all the more impressive is that only Starlin Castro has more hits (58) than Dickerson's 57 in all of baseball through the first seven weeks. Only one of his 11 bombs have come off of a left-handed pitcher, but he's actually hitting for a higher average against them (.354) compared to his bread and butter righties (.339). His batting average has certainly been aided by an astronomical .393 BABIP, and it would be more than reasonable for us to expect it to drop substantially. That said, if Dickerson continues this madness through the rest of this week and heads into June with a .340 average, there's a legitimate chance he'll end somewhere around .290 - .300 — not bad for a guy drafted as an afterthought around the 29th round in most of our 12-teamers. Shout out to my Florida roto buddy and baseball podcaster Yancy Eaton who never lost faith in C-Dick in what could possibly go down as the greatest year of both of their baseball lives.
Update: Another round tripper for Dickerson on Monday night, ho hum.
Justin Bour, 1B, MIA
Bour was a late-round target of mine in early March, though I ended up with only a couple of shares while spreading the wealth between my end-game corner infielders with Travis Shaw and an underperforming Steve Pearce. Bour was on many of our radars after bashing 15 homers in just 90 games, and after a cold start to the season (.222, 21 K in April), Bour is crushing in May with seven dingers and a .627 OBP over the last three weeks. Bour is one behemoth of a guy (6-foot-3, 265 pounds) and has moved up to hit cleanup against right-handed arms to break up the R-R combo of Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton. He ranks sixth among all hitters with a 53 percent hard-hit rate in May and will be a serious threat to top the 30-homer mark. Expect him to end the season with a batting average in the .250-.270 range with plenty of pronounced hot and cold streaks going forward.
Welington Castillo, C, BAL
Castillo is having a solid and steady season in his first foray in the American League. He has always had the luxury of playing in nice hitter's parks (Wrigley Field, Chase Field) prior to landing with the Orioles. The 30-year-old Dominican ranks among the top five catchers in both batting average (.333) and OBP (.360) and has started to pick up the pace power-wise lately. After managing just one home run in April, Castillo hit three jacks last week (including a walk-off blast) after spending two weeks on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis. His current .196 ISO won't be difficult to maintain, but his .400-plus BABIP suggests his average will continue to normalize toward his career .260 rate. Nevertheless, those with Castillo should be content having a top-10 offensive catcher, especially this summer in such a nice hitter's park.
Jose Berrios, SP, MIN
This could very well be what we've been waiting for. Berrios lost a lot of luster on his spring draft stock after getting lit up as a rookie (6.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP in 14 starts). The writing was on the wall in April and through the beginning of this month as Berrios carried a 1.03 ERA and a 27 percent strikeout rate through six minor league starts. Berrios was dropped in a small amount of NFBC 15-teamers and in dozens of 12-teamers where astute owners were able to pick him up for pennies on the dollar compared to the price he demanded once promoted (competitive bids between 180 and 220 last week). The 22-year-old had a solid season debut against the Indians (2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7.2 IP) and followed it up with a masterful 11-strikeout gem against the Rockies last week. Berrios drew heaping praise from Rockies' outfielder Ian Desmond who likened him to late, great ace Jose Fernandez. We've only seen two starts out of him, but Berrios appears to be locked in and is displaying the potential many scouts envisioned. Let's see how his next few starts go, but in the small sample, we're talking about a potential roto season savior with one of the best curveballs in the game.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, BOS
Rodriguez has been living up to his potential and has been the Red Sox's most consistent hurler. He has thrown at least six innings in each of his last six outings and has not allowed more than three earned runs since his season debut. Rodriguez has very solid ratios (3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) that unfortunately will inflate, especially given a nine percent walk rate and having to battle in the AL East. Though it's worth noting that neither his strand rate (72.6%) nor his BABIP (.263) portend to much good luck thus far. Rodriguez is holding opposing batters to a .168 average between his two primary offerings — a baffling changeup and his primary pitch, a fastball that occasionally hits 96 mph. There's plenty to love with the southpaw, but it's hard to imagine him maintaining his current success outside of a strikeout rate north of 25 percent. Expect an ERA around 3.40 and a WHIP between 1.15-1.30 come season's end.
Honorable Mentions
Matt Adams, 1B, ATL – He homered in his debut with the Braves and solicited triple-digit bids in NFBC 15-team leagues this week. Adams has 20-HR upside and can be added for the likes of Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison and Marwin Gonzalez, but I'd rather keep Bour, Josh Bell and Justin Smoak.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE – If there ever was an opportunity to buy a stud hitter on the cheap, it's here. A career .264 hitter, Encarnacion is currently batting .207, has a hard-hit rate above 40% for the first time in his career and has averaged 38.6 homers over the past five seasons. He's past his prime, but he hasn't all of a sudden lost all of his hitting skills with the trade to Cleveland. A big summer is coming.
Mike Clevinger, SP, CLE – A solid former prospect of the Angels, Clevinger struggled as a rookie last season. He looked sharp striking out eight Astros last week and faces the Reds at home this week. Already scooped up in almost every 15-team league, Clevinger could stick in the rotation and potentially earn your trust in 12-team leagues as well. He's got four solid pitches in his arsenal including a 92-mph fastball and could maintain a strikeout-per-inning pace if provided the opportunity.
Koda Glover, RP, WAS – I added Glover where I could last weekend, but that Sunday save was ill-timed and caused a last-minute price bump. He's been solid since coming off the DL (no runs allowed in four appearances) and is a breath of fresh air in a stank bullpen that needs a leader. The Nats will likely still deal for a veteran ninth-inning arm, but Glover's success could make that less of a priority for management.
FALLERS
Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B, SD
Solarte's slash line of .133/.221/.217 is right down there with the league's worst. In fact, it's harder to find someone more clueless at the plate. Manager Andy Green gave him a breather on Sunday as Solarte had only managed five hits in his last 45 at-bats (.111 average). Solarte had started the season off respectably, hitting .283 with 16 RBI in April and he's maintained a slightly higher walk rate than last year (7.8% to 6.8%). Solarte has one of the league's lowest strikeout rates (under 11 percent), but he's been an easy out for quite some time now, managing a career-low 22.8 percent hard-hit rate. Green has stayed faithful knowing that Solarte will get back into the swing of things eventually as he continues to bat him in the cleanup spot.
I'm keeping the faith in my 15-teamer, but can't fault folks that have more viable options in 12-team leagues. The issue here, though, is a universal one in the fantasy world: we drop cold players too easily for sizzling flavors of the week, only to catch said new flavor on the downward spiral of their own hot streak. Reading into the situation and seeing Green's optimism about Solarte bodes well for those who are keeping the faith. At the end of the day, he's not a big power guy and there's room for growth in his batting average. Whether you plan on keeping said faith depends on what type of stats you think your roster needs.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, PHI
Hernandez is another May fizzler, but the effects have been much less severe than with Solarte. Hernandez is hitting .275 through the first three weeks of the month with a solid .367 OBP but has no homers and just one RBI after going 4-for-10 with a .323 average last month. He has matched last month's total in stolen bases (three) but has maintained a paltry 19.4 percent hard-hit rate which is his worst career-mark to date. C-Hern has performed much better at home this year (.349/.423/.492) compared to on the road (.275/.339/.392) and should hopefully pick up the pace with seven home games this week against the Rockies and some suspect Reds pitching on tap. If you own him, you're essentially married to him as he needs to remain on your roster in all formats.
Joc Pederson, OF, LAD
Pederson was all smiles after hitting just his second home run of the season Sunday — a sign of hopefully good at-bats to come. For all intents and purposes, Pederson has been an unmitigated disaster for fantasy owners through the first seven weeks, especially for those of us that invested in him ahead of his ADP hoping to score a steal. After all, we're talking about a guy who bashed 51 bombs over his first two seasons and is posting an ISO under .100 thus far. Pederson has been taking less walks and his hard-hit rate is lower than his career rate, but it's all part of the package for a guy who has been underperforming. The Dodgers don't often play him against southpaw starters often, and everyday at-bats will likely continue to be hard to come by. I hate to be so formulaic and tell you that everyone who is struggling is going to bounce back to career norms, but I believe Joc's numbers won't suffer when 2017 is all said and done. The big breakout that some had in mind may not come to fruition, but something in the range of last year's 64 R/25 HR/65 RBI is not at all far-fetched. The Dodgers have a loaded roster with many moving pieces, and Pederson won't be afforded the same opportunity to sink-or-swim against lefties like Michael Conforto in the Big Apple. Dave Roberts will continue to give Pederson at-bats against righties from the leadoff spot, especially with Andrew Toles down and out. So much of the game is confidence in oneself, so hopefully Pederson's second home run is the catalyst that helps get him off the schneid.
A.J. Ramos, RP, MIA
It's not that Ramos has been bad per se, it's just that he's been non-existent — at least in the interest of what we drafted him for, which is saves. The biggest problem is simply a lack of save opportunities for the Marlins, as they've been doing their fair share of losing (or winning by large margins). No pitcher that has started as his team's closer has less saves than Ramos' four. He has yet to blow one, but he still appears to be on shaky ground to me, walking batters at an astronomical 14.5 percent clip and allowing a career-high 35 percent hard-hit rate. He has nailed down 72 saves over the last two seasons including 40 last year, but the Marlins are flush with options (namely Kyle Barraclough and Brad Ziegler) who could easily step in and maintain that ninth-inning gig. Ramos' owners can begin to panic after a couple of blown saves, but this won't be a new situation for manager Don Mattingly, who had to shuffle options in the ninth inning when Kenley Jansen unexpectedly took time off on medical leave. Walking the first batter in an appearance here and there will sit okay with Mattingly so long as Ramos closes them out, but once he starts blowing save opportunities, he's likely to get replaced. For us fantasy owners always on the hunt for fresh closers, it's a situation that bears attention as Ramos is anything but safe despite past seasons of success.
Julio Teheran, SP, ATL
What a debacle against the Blue Jays last week. I somehow naively believed that cooler heads would prevail and that Teheran would just try to beat them on the mound instead of plunking Jose Bautista in retaliation. Teheran did indeed hit him, and in true karmic fashion, Bautista came around to score while Teheran continued to unravel, allowing nine earned runs in the game. Perhaps I still have some good karma (or just good SP depth), but I actually benched Teheran (my second SP drafted) on my NFBC Main Event team last week. Talk about avoiding a disaster. It is certainly looking like the new park in Atlanta is much more conducive to hitters, but Teheran's ratio splits are almost impossible to even fathom. He has a 0.71 ERA with 18 strikeouts in four starts away from SunTrust Park and a 10.50 ERA with the same 18 strikeouts but in more games (five) at home.
Of course I'm running him out this week for a two-start week hoping for the best — a Tuesday start at home against the Pirates and a weekend one at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park against the Giants. Teheran struggled last April as well (4.60 ERA over five starts), before settling in to a 1.65 ERA over 11 starts in June and July, then getting wrecked (an ERA around 5.00) over the remainder of the season. His lack of free passes helped him to end last season with respectable numbers, but so far this season, Teheran is walking nearly twice as many batters (10.5% walk rate). The sad part is that his xFIP (5.54) resides right around his actual ERA (5.47), which means he hasn't been unlucky and representative of his efforts. If you're heavily invested, you've got to keep running into the fire on two-start weeks unless there's an at-COL or at-ARI on the schedule, and you'll have to make tough calls for the single starts. There will be a time when Julio gets his groove back, but after that last outing, there might be a bit more bad juju brewing.
