MLB Barometer: Top Pitching Trios

We are just two weeks away from the All-Star break, and for many of us, it will be a much-needed rest from the everyday grind. Not that we don't love it, but it will be nice to have a few days to recharge and get ready for the final few months of the season. It also provides a good opportunity to truly dig into our rosters to identify weaknesses beyond the numbers and plan out our strategy to take down our leagues.

Next week's intro will include my annual second-half home run projections, but for this week, I wanted to share with you my favorite starting pitching trios for the rest of the season. It's similar to my rotation power rankings from last season, though I've decided to cut it off after three starters since so much is in flux near the end of rotations due to poor performances, injuries and fringe guys getting shuttled back and forth from the minors...

1 - Washington Nationals (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez)

The No. 1 spot is debatable, but Gonzalez's stability as the clear No. 3 makes this trio top-notch. Gio's 4.38 xFIP makes us wonder how much longer he can maintain an ERA under 3.00. Strasburg has had some hiccups lately (13 ER in his last three starts) and his health is the key to this ranking. Scherzer has been one of the two best starters in baseball and his dominance is the primary reason for the top rank.

2 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu)

Dodgers' starters have baseball's second best combined ERA (3.54) and we haven't even really seen the dominant version of Kershaw that we're used to. Wood is a big reason for the top-three ranking (1.86 ERA, 2 HR allowed) and I'm not buying the chirping about Wood not being able to hold up for the entire season. He's just as much at risk as most starters. That third starter is in flux -- Brandon McCarthy has been solid (3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) but he just hit the DL and his durability is always in question. Ryu is looking better as we get deeper into the season, but the true path to being the best trio in the league is for Kenta Maeda to work his way back into the rotation and follow up on last year's impressive MLB debut. Working him in middle relief is a great way to preserve his arm for the long haul. Dodgers starters also have the lowest hard hit rate (28.2%) as a unit.

3 - Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz)

The Red Sox have three dominant lefties, all of which should average more than a strikeout per inning come season's end. It's a trio one should feel comfortable with for a playoff run especially as Price continues to regain form since missing the first two months of the season due to an elbow injury. This group of starters (with help from the currently recuperating Eduardo Rodriguez) are tied with the Giants' staff for the league's lowest team walk rate (6.2%), which is a really impressive number when you realize that the Orioles and Marlins starters are walking opposing batters at a rate greater than 10 percent.

4 - Houston Astros (Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Mike Fiers)

The Astros have a nice lead in the AL West but need a healthy Keuchel to really put the nail in the coffin on the division and to have a shot to win the World Series. McCullers ranks top-five in K-rate (29.4%) and WHIP (1.04) and is quickly becoming one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Fiers is on an incredible and unsustainable run (four earned runs and just 17 hits allowed in 25 June innings), but we will enjoy his consistency while we can. It's feels like the deepest rotation in baseball when you consider Charlie Morton is on his way back, Brad Peacock appears rejuvenated and Francis Martes and David Paulino have promising futures, though they're not fully ready. The rotation as a whole ranks top-five in WHIP, SIERA and hard-hit rate.

5 - Arizona Diamondbacks (Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley)

Greinke anchors a rotation that surprisingly leads the majors in ERA (3.46) despite half of their starts taking place in one of the toughest parks for hitters. Ray is an enigma, as he ranks top-five in strikeout rate but also top-five in hard-hit rate and walk rate. It's hard to imagine him doubling down on a fantastic first half. Godley has been quite the surprise -- he of the 59% groundball rate and no blowups to date (all nine starts allowing three earned runs or less). We'll likely see Ray and Taijuan Walker flip-flop output-wise as I expect a healthy Walker to rank among the top 30 starting pitchers going forward.

6 - Cleveland Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer)

It starts to get a bit more dicey, especially since one of these guys has an ERA over 5.00 (Bauer) and Carrasco just got bombed for eight earned runs by the Rangers on Monday. Nevertheless, this staff leads the majors in strikeout rate (26%) and also employs the guy with the league's lowest walk rate (Josh Tomlin – 2.6%). I'm still holding out hope for Danny Salazar to get back into the rotation once he is healthy.

7 - St. Louis Cardinals (Carlos Martinez, Mike Leake, Lance Lynn)

Outside of C-Mart, many in this rotation are starting to show chinks in their armor. Lynn has an ERA under 2.00 at home but has been crushed in back-to-back outings and Leake is coming back down to earth (.338 wOBA in June, after .250 in April/May). Michael Wacha had a solid bounce-back start Monday after a very inconsistent six-week stretch. It's odd that Adam Wainwright is on the outside looking in and is the team's worst starter, but Father Time takes his toll on all of us eventually.

8 - Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks)

Lester's velocity is down and he's having one of his worst seasons ever, but it's hard to imagine him not improving his 3.83 ERA. Arrieta hasn't earned his fantasy stripes either, but I imagine brighter days are ahead for him as well. John Lackey has been serving up home runs like hotcakes (his 2.16 HR/9 is nearly double last year's 1.10) and his performance to date encompasses the struggles of this group. It's hard to imagine last year's top rotation making much noise in the playoffs if they don't start turning the corner.

9 - Pittsburgh Pirates (Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova)

This is a nice mix of solid, yet unsexy starters, but Ray Searage's boys keep the ball on the ground more than most, eat innings and appear to be hitting their stride at the right time.

10 - Tampa Bay Rays (Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb)

Here's a top-10 unit in terms of walk rate that's shockingly ranked last in hard-hit rate (38.6%). Cobb has had some good outings, but is no longer a top-25 guy like he was prior to his Tommy John surgery. Jacob Faria could easily be the team's second best starter, but he will undoubtedly experience some bumps in the road. Blake Snell is back this week, and we'll see if he's able to limit the walks for the first time in his career.

Honorable Mentions:

New York Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery)
Toronto Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada)
Seattle Mariners (James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly)
Texas Rangers (Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross)
Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris)

RISERS

Randal Grichuk, OF, STL

Please don't misinterpret -- Grichuk isn't going to save fantasy teams and he's a batting average drain over the long term. But as we learn time and again, we have to strike while the iron's hot. There really is something to be said about major league players producing after demotion, especially since Grichuk did this exact same thing last season. He managed to smash 10 homers prior to last season's demotion, but it was accompanied by a damaging .224 batting average. After getting called back up right before the 2016 All-Star break, Grichuk hit three homers in 10 games, connecting for a hit in nine of them. He finished the year with a .240 BA but also 24 homers. The beginning to this season was a similar story (.220, four HR), but this time Grichuk was sent all the way down to Single-A to retool his swing and truly get back to basics. He's gone yard in each of his first two games since being called up and even got to hit out of the cleanup spot Monday. No matter who the person is, a demotion of such epic proportions is humbling and it forces one to truly dig deep to the root of the issues that need to be addressed. Grichuk certainly has holes in his swing -- and I don't think they've magically been fixed over this last month, but he is just 25 years old and has tremendous raw power (career .229 ISO). Enjoy the fruits of his labor while you can and read the tea leaves (consecutive 0-for-4's) to know when to bench him or cut bait. Grichuk is a 25-HR hitter who will be lucky to hit .250, so it's simply a matter of understanding your team's statistical needs and acting accordingly.

Josh Reddick, OF, HOU

Reddick is a long under-appreciated asset that gets added and dropped in 12-team leagues without much commotion. Granted, Reddick seems to find his way onto the disabled list annually. He last topped 150 games in 2012, but that was the season he set his career high in home runs (32). Those days are long gone, as the 30-year-old has changed his approach at the plate over the last couple of years to hit for more contact and swing less for the fences. As such, he has become one of the toughest guys to strike out, averaging a 12% K-rate over the last three seasons. He rarely ends a season with a double-digit walk rate, but he does a good job of getting on base and has a pretty nifty slash line so far this season (.298/.354/.496). Reddick doesn't play all that often against southpaws since he's a lefty-bat but has managed to hit a touch over .300 against them in a small sample of 33 at-bats. Most importantly, he bats in the ever-important two-hole between George Springer and Jose Altuve when a righty is on the mound. Reddick is good for another 10 bombs this season, a handful more steals and could score 80-plus runs (he already has 44). I'd scoop Reddick up where available for some well-rounded at-bats and would just be mindful of when the Astros face three or more LHP in a given week.

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, CHC

The 22-year-old rookie has surprisingly flown under the radar despite playing for the Cubbies, mostly because of the attention coastal bashers Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge receive. Happ was promoted in mid-May and wasn't expected to stay up long, but he is proving that he belongs with the club. Happ hit .407 with two homers last week and has gone yard ten times in his first 37 games. He strikes out a gaudy clip (32%) but has been making contact more frequently in his recent surge, raising his batting average to .262, up from .226 just two weeks ago. Moreover, coach Maddon has entrusted the rookie to hit in some prime spots in the lineup, including second and fourth. Ben Zobrist is expected to return later this week and despite his best days in the rearview (he's 36), I'm not so certain that Zobrist is going to be riding the bench when he returns. With Kyle Schwarber in Triple-A for now, it allows Happ to play in the outfield more often, though it's likely that Happ will find himself on the bench once or twice a week. The ninth-overall pick of the 2015 draft is flashing power more quickly than many of us assumed, but it's inevitable that he will slow his pace as the .317 ISO begins to drop. We also can't deny the fact that a big slump could send him back down to Triple-A. But for now, we enjoy the production. The multi-position eligibility is a boon and we maximize his value if we start him as our middle infielder.

Mike Montgomery, SP, CHC

I snagged a few Montgomery shares in 12-team NFBC leagues right before his dance (home vs. Padres, road vs. Marlins) and was pleased with the results -- 10 strikeouts in 12 innings with four walks and just seven hits allowed, though three unearned were scored in the first inning in his weekend start. Montgomery is likely better suited as a reliever, but could stick in the rotation for the remainder of the season and move back to the pen if they make the playoffs. An 11.8% walk rate is the southpaw's biggest wart with 24 of his 28 walks allowed coming against right-handed hitters. Montgomery is a career 56% groundball guy who has maintained a GB rate just north of 60 percent this season. Most importantly, and related to his ability to keep the ball on the ground, is the fact that he has allowed just two longballs in 57.1 innings of work. Montgomery's next stop is the cavernous Great American Ballpark where he'll face a Reds team that hits better against left-handed pitchers (.328 wOBA ranks ninth). Montgomery won't overwhelm with the whiffs as much as he would as part of the rotation, but he should continue to get above-average run support in his starts and has less blowup vulnerability than many of the 12-team borderline starting pitchers you'd find on waivers.

Honorable Mentions

Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN – His four-homer game aside, Gennett is not just some flash-in-the-pan. He did string together a serviceable line for the Brewers last season (58 R/14 HR/56 RBI/8 SB/.263) and has some value in 15-team formats so long as Zack Cozart is sidelined (Gennett covers second base with Jose Peraza sliding over to shortstop). Gennett's issue has always been his lack of walks (5 percent career rate). He should continue to hit in front of Joey Votto when right-handers are on the mound.

Michael Taylor, OF, WAS – I've got Taylor on my NFBC Main Event team and have been surprised by his reliable production, but unfortunately missed his two-homer, two-steal weekend since he was out of the lineup on Friday dealing with undisclosed minor injuries and I couldn't chance taking three-days of goose eggs. Taylor certainly concerns me from a batting average standpoint (career 32% strikeout rate, striking out in nearly a third of his at-bats this season) but the power/speed combination and full time role is certainly viable for all fantasy formats despite the fact that he bats near the bottom of the Nats' lineup. One of the few in the game with value from the eight-hole.

Luis Castillo, SP, CIN – The 22-year-old with 98-mph heat that tops out slightly over 100 is a scary consideration for those concerned with their ratios (which means, all of us). The likelihood of him holding down a rotation spot for the remainder of the year was about 40/60 heading into the week, but with Brandon Finnegan removed from his Monday start early, those odds have been raised. Castillo could be a nice asset for strikeouts but we should be concerned with his control and home park. He will undergo the ultimate test next week as he's slated for starts in Coors and Chase Field. If he can withstand those with minimal damage, I'd be much more inclined to recommend him going forward.

FALLERS

Tim Anderson, SS, CHW

I wasn't all that enamored with Anderson heading into drafts, but the allure of 90-plus runs and the potential to swipe 30 bags atop the White Sox's lineup made his ADP more palatable during the final week of draft season. Nevertheless, I ended up with no shares, and can't even seem to play him in advantageous spots in DFS this season. The main issue is his lack of walks. Anderson has maintained the same low three-percent walk rate he posted in his rookie season and has attempted just five steals this year (all successful, by the way). He's batting a paltry .251 and only .218 against right-handed pitchers, though all six of his home runs this year have come against them. Anderson did swipe 49 bases in Double-A two years ago and does have some impressive wheels, but has just failed to earn any piece of his 155 ADP thus far. He'll have some spurts of goodness in the second half and do think he will improve his performance over the coming months, but the plate patience is absolutely key if we expect him to rise to the next level of fantasy value. Update: Of course, he crushes a three-run bomb Monday in typical faller style.

Tommy Joseph, 1B, PHI

Joseph is just your everyday, run-of-the-mill corner infielder. He's in the top 20th percentile of the league in terms of raw power and I think we'll see him engage in a couple of power binges this year, but it doesn't appear that he will hit those 30 homers that some projection systems optimistically pegged him for. Joseph has improved against righties but simultaneously regressed against southpaws, managing to hit just .225 against them this year (.284 last year). Sure, it's just half a season and the difference of just a dozen hits, but I don't believe Joseph will be helpful outside of homers this season, a category that has been available in 2017. Joseph will likely end the year with 25 homers, 80 RBI and an average around .250. Joseph isn't going to set fantasy leagues on fire, though he does project as a comp to Evan Gattis (similar size, power and strikeout rates) and we likely haven't seen the peak of the 25-year-old's power quite yet.

Starlin Castro, 2B, NYY

Castro was on quite the roll over the first two months of the season, flourishing in the cleanup role for the Yankees while ranking among the AL leaders in hits. Castro hit .352 in April and .301 last month but has struggled over the last two weeks, hitting .265 with a .302 on-base percentage. He was bothered by a minor wrist injury last week and returned to the lineup Monday, but he was removed from the game early with a hamstring injury. It will likely earn him a trip to the disabled list and temporary halt an otherwise phenomenal season. Castro has been a productive major-leaguer from the very beginning, jumping straight from Double-A to the Cubbies as a 20-year-old before producing back-to-back seasons with double-digit homers and steals. Last season, he set a career high with 21 homers (a nice jump from his previous best of 14). He still has a chance to surpass last year's numbers, but it's evident that his most recent injury is going to slow those efforts. Set him on the bench for now and don't even think about dropping him.

Nomar Mazara, OF, TEX

Mazara has swatted three homers over the last two weeks but has been otherwise unproductive during this 6-for-26 (.166) stretch. Mazara is halfway to last year's total in homers (10 so far) and does have a shot at hitting the triple-digit mark in RBI (currently at 46), but has struggled against left-handed pitchers (.340 SLG). Mazara is entrusted with hitting third against righties and is slugging nearly .500 in the friendly confines of his home stadium. Perhaps even mentioning Mazara as a faller because of a two-week stretch is being too hard on him. After all, Mazara is just 22 years old and is having a solid season, overall. He is taking walks at a slightly higher clip (8.8%) than his rookie season (6.9%) and is maintaining a strikeout rate under 20 percent over his career. The best of Mazara may still be a couple of years away, but 22-100-.280 from a guy his age is nothing to sneeze at. I'd be looking to target Mazara in a swap of outfielders for a current over-performer like Avisail Garcia or Scott Schebler.