MLB Barometer: Two Months In

Some random thoughts from around the league:

It's a sad day knowing Mike Trout will be sidelined until sometime around the All-Star break with his first trip to the DL. It presents an opportunity for us to debate Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt as fantasy's top player, but we'll have to include Charlie Blackmon in the discussion. Isn't it wild that a leadoff hitter is the league's current RBI leader? It says a lot about this juggernaut offense when their "defensive" catcher (Tony Wolters, .411 OBP) is almost always on base when Blackmon steps to the plate. It's too early to talk about pennants and playoffs, but it's worth noting that the Rockies have the best record in the National League. If you think about it, Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story have struggled offensively, and their ace, Jonathan Gray, has missed most of the season. The main issue is that their young, studly starting pitchers (Anderson, Marquez, Senzatela, Freeland) have some growing pains to endure and little big league experience, particularly down the stretch of a playoff race. Not many people are taking the Rockies seriously now, but we may have to in a couple of months.

We always pay attention to team strikeout rates for weekly pitcher start/sits or for DFS, but did you know that 16 of top 25 of the league's strikeout leaders are represented by seven teams? The Rays are the only team in baseball striking out in over 25 percent of their at-bats. The Athletics are fourth worst with a 24 percent strikeout rate but are only represented in the top 25 by cleanup hitter Khris Davis (tied for 11th with 60 strikeouts).

TB: Tim Beckham, Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza (189 combined strikeouts)
SD: Wil Myers, Ryan Schimpf, Hunter Renfroe (174)
TEX: Joey Gallo, Mike Napoli (132)
MLW: Keon Broxton, Jonathan Villar (129)
MIN: Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton (126)
DET: Justin Upton, Nicholas Castellanos (119)
NYY: Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday (109)

There are only 10 players in baseball currently hitting .330 or greater, and three of them (Justin Turner .379, Freddie Freeman .341, Trout .337) are on the DL, though Turner should be back this week. Only three players have hit above .330 in each of the last two seasons, and Jose Altuve has done it twice in the last three years. Getting off to a hot start isn't predictive of winning a batting title but it sure helps the odds. Daniel Murphy barely lost out to DJ LeMahieu last season but got off to a scorching start hitting .397 over the first two months of 2016. Wouldn't it be something if Zimmerman caught teammate Murphy's old-man-with-hot-bat bug and competes for the NL batting title this year? Zimmerman is hitting .374 and is a career .281 guy who's only hit greater than .300 once, back in 2010.

RISERS

Adam Frazier, OF, PIT

Frazier headlines this week's "shiny new toy" list after hitting three-run bombs in consecutive days last Wednesday and Thursday. In the weekend series against the Mets, Frazier managed just one hit in 13 at-bats, but his mini power binge overshadowed his otherwise unexciting week and inflated his value as people ponied up legitimate FAAB dollars for the 25-year-old outfielder. Frazier missed 18 games earlier this season with a hamstring injury and came back to a full-time job given Starling Marte's suspension. He's a true super-utility guy who primarily plays in left field, but he has also made starts in center, right and at every infield position but first base. He's a nice addition to your 15-teamer, but otherwise isn't going to be moving the fantasy needle much this season. Frazier has displayed little to no power throughout his minor-league career or in his short time in the majors, and although he possesses some speed and could pitch in with stolen bases and runs, it's hard to imagine him posting a .400 OBP this season. Often times, new players infuse our rosters with a glimmer of hope after a rough fantasy week, and that is what I expect to be the case here. There's certainly value with Frazier as long as he continues to lead off, but our expectations need to be kept in check, especially if we're expecting any newfound type of power out of him this season.

Logan Morrison, 1B, TB

Excuse me for not getting excited about the LoMo power surge. Sure, it's impressive that he's swatted 14 homers thus far and ranks among major league leaders in the category. If Morrison can make it through the entire season without a DL trip, that may well be a first. In fact, Morrison has only avoided the disabled list once in six seasons (2015), and that was the only year where he played more than 125 games. He does have a strong history in terms of taking free passes (10 percent career rate) and heads into Week 9 with a walk rate slightly higher than 12 percent. Of course, as a left-handed bat, most of his power has come against right-handed pitchers and it's noteworthy that he's maintained similar batting averages against LHP (.248) as he has against RHP (.237) over the last three years. But that, in essence, is the problem with LoMo. He's a batting average drain who will be hard-pressed to hit much higher than his career .247 rate. I added Morrison in a NFBC 12-teamer last week, but dropped him for Lucas Duda on Sunday to take advantage of Duda's hot bat and seven righties on the Mets' slate this week.

That essentially sums up my thoughts on Morrison, and as a whole, my strategy with borderline free-agent bats this season. I'm always looking to maximize hot streaks, pitcher handedness and strength of schedule with corner infielders — especially this season, where there always seems to be one available for cheap. It's possible I'll regret my Morrison drop as he swats another 20 homers, but I'll take my chances on the contrary with a guy who always finds a way to disappoint or end up on the DL.

Kevin Kiermaier, OF, TB

Switching the mood of this column, Kiermaier is someone I'm bullish on going forward. After a frigid April (.220, one HR, three RBI), Kiermaier has picked up the pace of late. So far this month, he is hitting a respectable .275 with a .355 OBP, three homers, 12 RBI and has stolen five bases on seven attempts. He has been striking out at the highest clip of his career (25 percent) but is also showing promise with the free passes, posting a 10.1 percent walk rate — his first time over double digits with the metric. He has earned at-bats in the top-third of the lineup, getting the opportunity to bat second against righties again over the last week. Kiermaier is still batting under the Mendoza Line against southpaws, but he knocked Twins lefties Hector Santiago and Adalberto Mejia around a little bit over the weekend. Of course, Kiermaier only gets the opportunity to hit second against righties, but the most important thing is that he's in the lineup every day. I do have concerns with a mediocre contact rate (under 80 percent again so far) and don't expect him to help much with batting average, but an end-of-year line could include 80 runs scored, with 30 steals and 10 to 15 home runs. I don't think we've seen the best of Kiermaier yet.

Update: Golden sombrero for Kiermaier on Monday in typical "riser" fashion.

Drew Pomeranz, SP, BOS

Perhaps we shouldn't get too excited about Pomeranz with a full summer against AL East opponents on the docket, but Pom has a live arm and is an exciting asset for fantasy owners. The six-year veteran tied his career high with 11 strikeouts against the Rangers on Thursday, throwing six innings for just the third time in nine starts. It was a nice change of pace after being unable to get out of the fourth inning in each of his three prior outings. One of the key components to his turnaround has been the usage of his cutter. Pomeranz used it 12 percent of the time over his last two outings compared to three percent over his previous seven starts, and that has helped keep opposing batters off balance. Pomeranz will have to continue to channel that beast the Red Sox traded for last year and keep his pitch counts low so he can become a more reliable innings-eater for fantasy owners going forward. His 3.37 xFIP is a good sign of expected improvement on a 4.70 ERA and I imagine we'll see that 1.64 HR/9 dip down closer to his career 1.12 mark since Pomeranz appears to be at full strength. The Red Sox have a very strong rotation this year that can do some damage in the playoffs, but much of their success depends on Pomeranz staying healthy and in the rotation.

Dan Straily, SP, MIA

I'm not going nutty for the extreme fly-baller but am certainly happy with his results for both my Tout Wars squad and in League of Leagues so far. Straily has always carried a high walk rate, and this year is no different (11 percent through 10 starts; career 9.5 percent). He is averaging a strikeout per inning, maintaining an above-average 12 percent swinging-strike rate and somehow managed a 1.07 WHIP thus far despite the high volume of walks. He has shut down left-handed bats this year (.163 oBA, .242 wOBA) and has pitched well in his new home stadium (2.45 ERA, compared to 6.00 on the road). Straily isn't harnessing anything new and we really shouldn't count on him for much more than home starts and occasional cherry-picking of road ones that are good matchups. At some point, that fortunate .205 BABIP will begin to rise towards his career .250 rate, but at the end of the year we're looking at a guy who will take advantage of his home park and likely end near a respectable 23 percent strikeout rate.

Honorable Mentions

Jake Marisnick, OF, HOU – Just your annual Marisnick hot streak that will flame out before you've had a chance to blink. Playing almost every day, he hit two homers and stole two bags last week, but we've been here before. Marisnick is a.220 hitter over his last three seasons (700-plus at-bats).

Josh Harrison, 2B/3B, PIT – The guy I dubbed "Pollock-Lite" last spring has earned every draft-day penny and led the world with 14 hits last week (.424). He could surpass his career-high 13 homers (six so far), but we own him for his runs, steals, average and position flexibility.

Jaime Garcia, SP, ATL – He had back-to-back solid outings against the Nats and Giants (14.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K), but Garcia scares me given his 4.48 xFIP, low strikeout rate (16 percent) and high walk rate (10.2 percent) — not to mention a home park that looks like a hitter's haven. That hasn't been the case so far (1.88 home ERA, 4.17 road), but regression always finds a way to rear its ugly head.

Jeff Samardzija, SP, SF – It's difficult for me to ever fully buy in as I've always been one of Shark's biggest skeptics, but it's hard to ignore an insane 7.18 K/BB and 2.89 xFIP (4.50 ERA). His .320 BABIP points to a bit of hard luck as well. Samardzija has struck out at least eight batters in each of his five May starts.

FALLERS

Russell Martin, C, TOR

So much of fantasy baseball is timing, so this may well be the case with an over-the-hill catcher I typically avoid like the plague. But fantasy isn't personal, and we always have to be ready to hold our nose if it involves buying low to improve our squads. I added Martin on the cheap in a 12-teamer where I lost James McCann. His previous owner had grew tired of him, and I don't blame him. Martin is hitting .218, but it's actually an improvement over his April output, and he has at least one hit in six of seven games since returning from a 12-day DL stint. He only has three homers on the year, but hit a combined 43 bombs over the last two seasons and still has a little left in the tank. Most importantly, Martin is doing a great job of getting on base, as his near 17-percent mark is five points above his career average. There's always something we're giving up to the field when we have to contend in two-catcher leagues — batting average is obviously Martin's weakness — but given the lack of viability at the position, there's no reason he can't still provide value in the counting categories for at least one more season.

Nicholas Castellanos, 3B, DET

Casty's 22 runs and 25 RBI are on a fine pace, but 15 runs and 14 RBI were compiled last month. So far in May, Castellanos has lost his two-hole gig and is slashing an incredibly disappointing .187/.265/.264. His 27 percent strikeout rate is the worst of his career and he has slugged just one round tripper in his last 31 games. If there's any bright side, it's a career-best 8.1 percent walk rate and that he's chasing pitches outside of the zone less (30.9 percent O-Swing percent) than in years past. There's likely a hot streak or two in his bat coming this season, but the Tigers have been one of baseball's most inconsistent offenses, mostly due to Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez missing time. Castellanos should raise that .217 average north of .250 and should swat another 15 or so home runs with decent counting categories, but it's hard to imagine that full-fledged breakout coming to fruition this year. I see him as a .260/18/85 guy at best.

Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, COL

Many of us were salivating over Desmond in Coors and moving him up our ADP lists, but a broken hand in spring training put a halt to that excitement. His two homers in his third game back were a great sign, but Desmond has failed to go yard in 23 game since. Desmond hasn't been awful — he was 8-for-25 with four RBI last week and is hitting .283 on the year — but it's quite obvious that he is still adjusting and his power isn't up to snuff yet. Also, there is always concern and a ramping-up period with any power hitter who has suffered a hand or wrist injury. The broken bones may have healed, but it will still take Desmond a few more weeks to feel fully comfortable. Desmond's main issue right now is regression in his plate patience, including a 26 percent strikeout rate and just two walks in 111 plate appearances. Nobody wants to willingly give up their Coors assets, but Desmond is a great trade target for the impatient fantasy owner. Expect his year-end line to include about 15 stolen bases and 22 home runs.

Vincent Velasquez, SP, PHI

Velasquez was dropped in a couple of my NFBC 12-teamers and the "old me" would have bid without thinking twice. The new, refined more risk-averse me dug into his game logs, peripherals and upcoming schedule and wanted no part of him. My ratios are in good shape on those teams, but so are the strikeouts, and there's simply no reason to tempt fate and allow my ratios to be decimated by a guy with a 10 percent walk rate who allows nearly two home runs per nine innings. The strikeouts have always been bananas (over one per inning with a heater that tops out near 99 mph), but Velasquez is unable to harness his control most of the time. Sure, I'd consider it if there was some weak opposition on the schedule, but Velasquez gets a road start against the Marlins this week then two more on the road next week against the Braves and Cardinals. Velasquez turns 25 in a couple of weeks and could have a bright future ahead of him, but I'd rather watch it from a distance and see progress with his control before buying in.

John Lackey, SP, CHC

Here's another guy I avoid on an annual basis, and this sentiment was no different in 2017. Sure, he had splendid back-to-back seasons, but I believe the 38-year-old's best days are behind him. Lackey is serving up two homers-per-nine and has allowed five over his last three games and 10 earned runs over his last two. He does have two 10-strikeout efforts among his 10 starts and he's averaging more than a strikeout per inning for the first time in his career, but Lackey is currently sporting an ERA over 5.00 with lots of games with the wind blowing out on tap in Wrigley this summer. Perhaps this is easier said than done, but if Lackey can string together a couple of solid outings, I'd look to see if you can acquire someone like Michael Wacha, Pomeranz or Sean Manaea for him.