This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Sunday April 13th
Previous article 0-4 (-3.25 units)
Season 13-22 (-10.69 units)
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9 games under .500 (I count the parlays as 1 win or loss) so that is not a huge deal, but the -10 units so far this early in the season is not good and I will look to regroup.
Observations from Sunday's MLB slate
Road Favorites - Red Sox -235 at White Sox, Phillies -176 at Cardinals
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dodgers -250 vs Cubs, Padres -235 vs. Rockies, Reds -188 vs Pirates
Totals - Mets/Athletics 9.0, Rangers/Mariners 6.5
Wind blowing out 18-19 mph in Phillies/Cardinals; Wind blowing in 12-14 mph in Red Sox/White Sox
Yankees/Giants 41 degrees, Royals/Guardians 45 degrees
Phillies/Cardinals 75-80 degrees, Braves/Rays 82 degrees
Line Movement
Not much in terms of significant line moves Sunday.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Kansas City Royals 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Picks
The Guardians have allowed just six runs in their last five games. Now granted three of those games were against the White Sox, but this Guardians bullpen is right back at the top of the mountain despite the struggles of Emmanuel Clase. The Royals are next to last in wRC+ only to the Red Sox (see below).
I would worry a little about Ben Lively, but this Royals offense is so bad that I think it will be negated. The Royals are 10-4 to the UNDER on their team totals and the Guardians are 8-5.
With Cole Ragans on the bump for the Royals, this is a nice combination for an UNDER play especially with game time temperatures forecasted in the 45-degree range.
MLB Best Bet: Royals/Guardians UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
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Boston Red Sox 
at Chicago White Sox 
Picks
Neither teams' offense is doing much of anything right now and the Red Sox are striking out more than anyone in the league. While they are drawing walks to help offset the K's, they are terrible with runners in scoring position. Boston has scored just nine runs in its last five games. The two huge breakout games against the Cardinals are masking what is a terrible hitting team right now.
The White Sox are not much better in the hitting department, and now they get the Garrett Crochet revenge game. Shane Smith looked like Cy Young in his last start against the Guardians. The White Sox have gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games and the Red Sox have gone 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five games.
This total opened at 6.5, which is crazy, and it immediately moved to 7.0. I still feel OK going under at 7.0 runs the way these two teams are hitting (or not hitting), and the ace on the mound in Crochet. Throw in the wind blowing in at 12-15 mph and mid-50 degrees which should suppress the scoring.
This game is ripe for some alternative run totals on the UNDER as well, if you really want to roll the dice on a 5 or 6 total along with an UNDER on the F5.
MLB Best Bet: Red Sox/White Sox UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Colorado Rockies 
at San Diego Padres 
Picks
You might have noticed a theme, I am looking at UNDER plays a lot more because of the environment we are seeing in April. Colder temperatues and pitchers typically are ahead of the hitters in the first month of the season. This all evens out in June/July with the humidity helping the ball fly out of the park.
I have written about the Rockies' road woes in this column for years, and this season is no different as they are already 6-1 to the UNDER for their team totals on the road. They have scored 11 runs in seven road games (1.60 runs per game) with a 34 percent strikeout rate and 5 percent walk rate.
Add in Michael King on the mound for the Padres and this looks like another good spot for an UNDER play and the Padres on the run line. Another gem is the Padres are 7-1 to the OVER on their team total at home.
MLB Best Bet: Rockies UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +106) and Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -102)
Detroit Tigers 
at Minnesota Twins 
Picks
I am going to flat out say it, the WRONG team is favored in this game with Casey Mize against Simeon Woods Richardson. Mize has looked solid in first two starts, while SWR has a 5.59 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his two outings.
The Tigers are 2nd in wRC+ next to the Yankees and the Twins are 25th. Give me the better pitcher and more importantly the better team right now with Detroit on the moneyline.
MLB Best Bet: Tigers for 1 unit (FanDuel +104)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Royals/Guardians UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
- Red Sox/White Sox UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Rockies UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +106)
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -102)
- Tigers for 1 unit (FanDuel +104)
