This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: Expert MLB Props for Sunday, August 25
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Texas Rangers 
at Cleveland Guardians 
We all tend to get caught in the anchoring effect, "a psychological phenomenon in which an individual's judgments or decisions are influenced by a reference point or "anchor" which can be completely irrelevant." It happens to even the best of us. (Sorry, different anchor).
But, seriously, it impacts us a lot in fantasy baseball as well as wagering. We tend to take our early impressions and project them out to the end of time, or at least through much of the season. Take the Guardians. They came out of the gates in 2024 with a surprisingly good offense. At the end of May, 57 games into the season, Cleveland ranked third in runs scored at 293. Since then, however, not so much, even after last night's hitting explosion, as they have 296 runs in 72 games, tied for sixth-fewest in MLB.
What has gone wrong? Well, a better question is probably what went right in the first place because no one expected big numbers from this low-budget squad.
Here are the Guardians with 50 plate appearances or more by May 31st, ranked by wOBA (via FanGraphs):
Jose Ramirez produced like he always does and Josh Naylor hit at a 40-homer pace, high for him but not unrealistic. But beyond that? Steven Kwan always hits for average but he missed most of May with an injury. After those three, there was less than met the eye at the time. David Fry parlayed an insanely productive May into an All-Star nod, but it will almost certainly go down as the best month of his MLB career.
Here are the Guardians since the start of June:
The three bankable bats, Ramirez, Naylor and Kwan, have regressed ever so slightly. Jhonkensy Noel, a.k.a. "Big Christmas", has assumed the David Fry hot hitter mantle, but to a lesser degree, and also as more of a part-timer. Overall, they do not look enormously different, they just had a very middling group, to begin with.
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They will play the Rangers today, who have underwhelmed on offense all season. The defending World Series champs have a 93 wRC+ on the season, good for just 23rd in MLB. They have only trended worse as they sit at 85 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Corey Seager missed most of spring training and started slow but has heated up as of late, slashing .271/.340/.543 with 10 homers since the All-Star break, but he has not gotten much help as the Rangers' playoff hopes have all but disappeared. As to the other bats that carried the champs in 2023, Marcus Semien with a 101 wRC+ on the year has only provided league-average offense, while Adolis Garcia at 93 wRC+ has provided even less. Josh Smith with a .338 wOBA on the season provided surprising pop for a bit, but he has just a .238 wOBA since the break. They went into the season looking for big contributions from star rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, but they have gotten a total of .9 WAR from Langford on a .246/.314/.369 line, while Carter hit .188 before going down to a season-ending injury in late May.
The Pick
Under 8.5 Runs (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tough to know what to get from the pitching matchup, but the offenses mostly look blah and more blah. A pair of lefties will start. Matthew Boyd for the Guardians and Cody Bradford for Texas. Boyd had just started twice in 2024 and has thrown only 163 innings total since basically going a full season in COVID-shortened 2020. He did pitch well in his first start (5.1 innings, one earned run, three hits, six strikeouts) vs. the Cubs and not so well in his second vs the Yankees (5.1 innings, three earned runs, four hits, four walks, two strikeouts). The good news is the Rangers hit more like the Cubs.
Bradford looked great early in the season then was out from early April to late July. He had two short and rough starts upon his return, but in his last three outings, he has a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
We may not get much length from either starter, though Bradford did go seven innings in his last start. Cleveland leads MLB with a 2.68 ERA. The Rangers do not have a good pen overall but have an excellent closer in Kirby Yates and old reliable David Robertson in a set-up role.
