This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, March 28
YTD 4-3 (+0.73 units)
Prior article 2-1 (+0.83 units)
Welcome back Baseball!!! I do not count last week as this is the true OPENING DAY. Word of caution early on for the first month. Go lighter in the first month as we need to gather some data points. Teams will be cautious with starting pitchers so avoid going OVER on strikeouts and recorded outs props. Also, be careful taking OVERs in outdoor parks where the temperatures are less than 55 degrees.
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St. Louis Cardinals 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
Betting ON the Dodgers is going to be interesting this year because the tax is very real. You have a moneyline of -230, run line of -120, team total of either 4.5 or 5.5 with heavy juice, etc. So you have to dig into each menu option to find value. I will always lean towards something in the -120 to +120 range and I think we found it with Dodgers race to 5 runs at EVEN money here.
The top five Dodgers batters should mash in spots like this especially at home against inferior right-handed starting pitching (Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy).
Miles Mikolas as your opening day starter does not bode well for the season as he had a 15.9 percent strikeout rate with a 4.78 ERA. Imagine going against this lineup and letting them put the ball in play. No thanks, I think they get to him early and often.
MLB Picks for Cardinals at Dodgers
- Dodgers RACE to 5 Runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
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Detroit Tigers 
at Chicago White Sox 
The White Sox are already looking like one of the worst teams in baseball on paper, especially their starting pitching. But Garrett Crochet had a solid spring training so I can see this being a low-scoring game early on, but then the Tigers attack the White Sox bullpen. I hate taking overs when the temperature is just 50 degrees but we do have 11 mph winds blowing out.
This is such a gross mismatch on paper that I wanted to look at the Tigers on the run line instead because I do not see them putting up many runs against Tarik Skuba,l who is a sneaky AL Cy Young candidate. The moneyline of -177 of the Tigers on the road is scary, but I am banking on Skubal here even with his tough road splits.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Tigers
- Tigers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
Colorado Rockies 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
One of the plays I always look towards is going against the Rockies on the road especially leaning towards the UNDER on their team totals. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when favored by at least -200. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 against the Rockies at home.
Zac Gallen had a rough spring and I do not want to ignore that. I played on that with Joe Musgrove against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the Dodgers/Padres last week. I would rather expect the Diamondbacks to still win this game against the Rockies, the worst team on the road over the last several years by a mile.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Diamondbacks
- Dbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -108)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Dodgers RACE to 5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Tigers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Dbacks -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -108)
- 2 team parlay special - Nationals +130 / Athletics +145 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +463)
- No write-up on this as it is 2 games, but I like going against Frankie Montas who should not be favored by -150 against anyone. I also like taking the A's at home in what should be a very low-scoring game with the underrated Alex Wood on the bump.
