This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures: Division Winners, Pennant Winners and World Series Picks
Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, today is a gift. That's why it's called the present. Actually yesterday was the awards/stat leaders side of my futures smorgasbord, so that means today is covering all the team-related shenanigans. There are several interesting markets I'm ecstatic to dive into. Away we go.
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American League Futures
AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox +300 (DraftKings)
It's the best number I've seen on the BoSox in the open market so far, though I've haven't been hawking this market as aggressively as others. It's been four years since this team made the playoffs and seven since they won the AL East back in 2018. Egregious price aside, I don't understand why people wouldn't bet them this year.
The Yankees got worse after losing Juan Soto and won't have Gerrit Cole all year, but think adding a few aging once-upon-a-time veterans is the key. Baltimore's pitching is an even bigger mess this year than last year, and they lost Corbin Burnes and decided to do next to zero in the offseason.
The Red Sox went HAM in this winter. Picking up an ace-level starter in Garrett Crochet, a decorated hitter with gas in the tank in Alex Bregman, and adding Walker Buehler made for a productive offseason. Not to mention they have some stud prospects arriving in Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. The lineup is loaded, the pitching should be improved big time, and the rest of the field is beatable. Time for Boston to get back on top.
AL Central Winner: Kansas City Royals +340 (Caesars)
The AL Central is so bad that it's good. Four teams have a legit shot to win this race, all of them roughly being the same caliber. So why are the Royals the longest shot of the four at this kind of number? They have maybe the deepest starting staff, led by Cole Ragans, and the best player in the division in Bobby Witt Jr.
I understand they're not the most exciting team, but +340 is a good number for a tight division. Let's also not forget, Jac Caglianone will be up at some point in the near future. And the gargantuan is going to take the MLB by storm. KC is a good bet for 2025 after 86 wins a season ago.
AL West Winner: Texas Rangers +225 (DraftKings)
The Rangers couldn't shake the World Series hangover in 2024, but they look poised to erupt like Vesuvius in 2025. Once again, the offense is full-on daddy wagon with danger at every turn. The pitching has a lot of variance but figures to be better.
IF - and it's a big one - Jacob deGrom can make even 20-23 starts, he'll form a strong 1-2 punch with Nathan Eovaldi. Plus, the Vandy Boys in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter both appear ready to make a splash after some tumultuous seasons in the minors throughout the last couple of seasons.
Furthermore, Houston appears likely to regress. Seattle's offense may be a dead fish again. And both the Angels and Athletics likely won't be contending for the division crown, making Texas a steal at this number.
AL Champion: Texas Rangers +900 (BetMGM)
The AL should be better overall this season. I'm still not buying anybody in the Central to win the pennant though. In a preseason look, Boston appears to be the biggest threat to Texas in 2025. I'd think one of these two teams ends up repping the AL in the World Series, so grabbing the Sox at+850 isn't a bad idea either.
The Rangers are high floor-high ceiling team, something I don't see from anybody else other than the Red Sox. The difference is this team has been there done that before. With Wyatt Langford likely to take off like a rocket towards an MVP type of season and the amount of veteran studs this offense has, I have a difficult time envisioning this lineup being outside the top 5-10 in most major categories.
Pitching wise there is still something to prove, but it looks a lot better than most are giving credit for. This team definitely has the firepower to make another run .
AL Wild Cards: Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
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National League Futures
NL East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies +215 (DraftKings)
Philly has been one of the most steady teams in baseball over the last three seasons increasing their win total every year. The big separator between them and Atlanta seems to be health. I have no doubt it will be a dog fight in the NL East, but with the Braves missing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna for the first month or so, it puts a dent in their chances.
The offense scored the fourth most runs per game last year (4.80) and are returning the same nucleus this season. Scoring should be a category they are atop the board again in 2025, like a lot of other major ones.
On the mound, it's maybe the best in the NL after the Dodgers with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo. Getting them at +215 after the level of consistency they've showed is a good bet.
NL Central Winner: Cincinnati Reds +550 (DK)
Cincy was actually +650 when I gave them out on my Breaking Bet pod the other day, which was ludicrous, but this is still a way too big price. If you remember from last season, I had the Reds as division and pennant winner with a World Series sprinkle. Citing the "highest variance" in the MLB case for this team, the low floor got the better of them.
Same thing goes for 2025, but hopefully they can avoid the injury bug this time. I know a lot of people are high on them this year, but as a matter of principle, I will likely be buying them for the next couple of seasons.
With Elly De La Cruz as a viable MVP option, he should ignite a young and talented offense into a productive unit. The pitching is also pretty deep with Hunter Greene leading the charge. Not to mention, we'll likely see my two Wake Forest studs in Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns extensively this season. Plus, I didn't even mention bringing Terry Francona into the fold.
The Cubs and Brewers will be good, but neither has the ceiling the Reds do and at this price it's definitely worth a swing.
NL West Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks +1200 (FD)
The Dodgers being -800 to win the division is both unbettable and ridiculous, so if you want to get in on this market, it seems like Arizona is the most viable option. I think they're in for a big season. After adding Corbin Burnes, it turns a good staff into a great staff with Zac Gallen as a big contributor. Let's not forget this team won 89 games in 2024 and missed the playoffs, and that was in a regression year off of 2023 World Series loss.
The team won't be able to just pitch but hit as well. Corbin Carroll should be in for a huge season, along with FA pickup Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Ketel Marte. An incredibly balanced roster, it's not outrageous to think the Zona team can flirt with 95 wins or so.
It will definitely be hard to beat the Dodgers, but in a 162-game season, are you really not going to take a shot on a 12/1 price?
NL Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks +1500 (FanDuel)
I'm between Zona and Cincy (+5000 -DK) for the pennant, both of which I will be taking a swing on. Ultimately, I'm going with the D-backs because they have a much higher floor with more stability.
Trotting out Burns, Gallen, and Merrill Kelly/Eddie Rodriguez/Brandon Pfaadt in a playoff series will be tough to beat. Granted the Dodgers and Phillies will be a challenge, but Arizona can certainly hold its own against anybody, as we saw in '23.
There's a lot of upside for the snakes this year and a 15/1 price is a bargain.
NL Wild Cards: LA Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers
World Series Prediction
Rangers (+2200) over Diamondbacks in a 2023 rematch
These teams aren't exactly being "slept on" but they're not the first contenders you think of. It's also not me trying to go contrarian to avoid a Dodgers/Yankees rematch or something like that. I actually believe it can happen again.
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