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MLB Best Bets Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
We are officially getting a Game 3 in the Wild Card Round tonight as the Brewers take on the Mets in Milwaukee. The Mets won the first game handily, going up 8-4 and never looking back. The Brewers came back with a critical win yesterday after being down 3-2 in the eighth inning. Jackson Chourio hit a game-tying home run to lead off the inning. Then Garrett Mitchell hit a two-run home run to end the inning. Before the Mets could blink, the score was 5-3 Brewers and they ended up finishing it in the ninth inning with Devin Williams on the bump. That leads us to a winner-take-all all Game 3.
Major League Baseball changed to this format from a one-game Wild Card format in 2020 during the COVID-shortened season. It became permanent in 2022, after a one-year return in 2021, although with fewer teams making the Wild Card Round. The history of the Wild Card Series since the format change is pretty wild. In the American League, just one of the 10 series played has gone to a Game 3, and that was in 2020. With fans in the stands, there has not been a single American League Wild Card Series go three games. The history in the National League is pretty interesting as well. There have only been three Wild Card Series that went to three games since the format changed to three games, which includes this Mets-Brewers series. Of the 20 three-game Wild Card Series that have been played in the history of MLB, just four of them have gone three games. Not including the COVID-shortened season, just two of the 12 three-game Wild Card Series have gone to a Game 3. The New York Mets have been involved in both.
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The experienced Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Mets today. He pitched in the playoffs in 2017 and did so very well in two of his three starts, allowing zero earned runs in 5.2 innings and two runs in five innings pitched. He also pitched in the playoffs in 2022, and did not allow a run in 5.1 innings pitched. He allowed just two hits and one walk in that start in 75 pitches, which was his most recent playoff start. He has been a lot more hit or miss this season but that is expected from a 13-year veteran. He faced the Brewers in his first start of the season, allowing two runs in 4.2 innings. He then faced them in his last start of the season, allowing two runs in 4.1 innings while striking out nine. This was Tobias Myers' first season pitching in the Major Leagues. He was 9-6 with a 3.00 ERA in 27 appearances this season. He has been struggling a bit more down the stretch. I am sure some of it is because he is two innings away from pitching the most innings in his baseball career. He has only pitched four innings in each of his last three starts. Pat Murphy pulled Freddy Peralta after four innings in Game 1 and Frankie Montas before he finished four innings in Game 2, so I highly doubt Myers will go more than four innings in this winner-take-all game. That said, I love Tobias Myers under 14.5 outs in this game and would play it all the way down to 12.5 outs.
Both pitchers should be on short leashes, which favors the Brewers because of how deep their bullpen is. We saw the Mets' bullpen stretched out yesterday and they had to use Phil Maton as a set-up man, so clearly that didn't work out. I would say the Mets have had the better lineup though, scoring eight runs in Game 1 and only three in Game 2. They were just 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position while the Brewers were 0-for-3. Francisco Lindor is likely to be the runner-up for the National League MVP award and he doesn't even have a hit yet for the Mets this series. I highly doubt Chourio will hit two home runs again, and the Brewers' offense is very reliant on the home run. Quintana has done a great job at limiting home runs, not allowing a single home run in September and only allowing two runs in 25 innings pitched overall. This game seems like it is as much of a toss-up as it gets, so I am going to go with the underdog at plus-money.
Best MLB Bets Today
- Mets ML (+115 Hard Rock Bet)
- Tobias Myers Under 14.5 Outs (-125 at Hard Rock Bet)
