This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we looked at the AL East, and for the next four weeks I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. We're halfway home, so let's look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – With the recent signing of Yu Darvish, the Cubs may have one of the more "set" rotations in the National League. Darvish steps in as a true No. 1, and while he had a respectable season last year, I actually expect better in 2018. He has a pretty amazing repertoire, and while his command wasn't as sharp last year, I think it will be better. The next three – Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana – are viable rotation guys, not aces, but they can be productive pitching in front of that explosive lineup. Lester still makes me crazy with his refusal to throw over and hold runners (yet he has remained viable), and Quintana wasn't as successful as I expected, but I think they'll be reliable in 2018. That said, my biggest concern again would be Hendricks. Extreme soft-tossers tend to be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes. If he gets just slightly out of synch, things can get difficult, but he has proven he can spot his pitches consistently. They also signed righty Tyler
Last week we looked at the AL East, and for the next four weeks I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. We're halfway home, so let's look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – With the recent signing of Yu Darvish, the Cubs may have one of the more "set" rotations in the National League. Darvish steps in as a true No. 1, and while he had a respectable season last year, I actually expect better in 2018. He has a pretty amazing repertoire, and while his command wasn't as sharp last year, I think it will be better. The next three – Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana – are viable rotation guys, not aces, but they can be productive pitching in front of that explosive lineup. Lester still makes me crazy with his refusal to throw over and hold runners (yet he has remained viable), and Quintana wasn't as successful as I expected, but I think they'll be reliable in 2018. That said, my biggest concern again would be Hendricks. Extreme soft-tossers tend to be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes. If he gets just slightly out of synch, things can get difficult, but he has proven he can spot his pitches consistently. They also signed righty Tyler Chatwood to serve as their fifth starter, and he should enjoy pitching outside Colorado, making him a potentially attractive value play. Mike Montgomery again will serve as their swingman, something he does very well.
The Cubs added Brandon Morrow to replace Wade Davis over the offseason, and he is penciled in as their closer. With his stuff, he'll be more than competent in that role, however there are concerns about how he might hold up with a closer's workload. I also really like Carl Edwards Jr. (you can't help but love his filthy stuff, if he could just spot it better) and I expect to see him slotted in as the primary set-up guy and insurance policy for Morrow. They also have Steve Cishek, Justin Wilson and Pedro Strop rounding out a deep pen.
Recapping the Cubs:
The arm to own:Yu Darvish or Tyler Chatwood
He's not for me:Kyle Hendricks
Best of the bullpen: Brandon Morrow
Cincinnati Reds – As settled as the Cubs' rotation appears to be, the Reds are pretty much just the opposite. Luis Castillo came out of the weeds in 2017 and sits atop the rotation. He appears to be the real deal, but I don't expect the same peripherals this year, and that will probably lead to a somewhat inflated price tag on draft day. The rest of the rotation is filled with question marks. I was high on Brandon Finnegan, who looked great in one start, then spent most of the season on the disabled list with chronic shoulder issues. I'm inclined to give him a mulligan, but shoulder woes always result in a red flag. Bid cautiously. He's joined by Anthony DeSclafani, who is marginal due to his vulnerability to left-handed swingers, plus he also missed most of last season (elbow). Veteran Homer Bailey could be a huge help but he hasn't pitched more than 90 innings in four years due to injuries. Robert Stephenson has a big arm but he doesn't inspire much confidence in my eyes. And I think the same can be said for Sal Romano. I like the fact that Tyler Mahle can throw strikes with four pitches, but he's more of an innings eater. One more name to track, despite ugly numbers last year, would be southpaw Amir Garrett. I'm not quite ready to give up on him, especially long term. He had hip issues that, if corrected, could mean a relatively bright future.
The Reds' depth chart again lists Raisel Iglesias as their closer. Despite the likely need for multiple inning relievers (he would fit) he has proven to be an effective end gamer. David Hernandez will be one key set-up guy, but I like fireballer Michael Lorenzen. He's technically in the running for a rotation spot but fits better in the pen, and he can be useful there. Garrett might also end up pitching in relief, at least for a while, and Kevin Shackelford, Cody Reed, and other lefties Oliver Perez and Wandy Peralta fill out a mix and match relief corps.
Recapping the Reds:
The arm to own:Brandon Finnegan
He's not for me:Anthony DeSclafani
Best of the bullpen:Raisel Iglesias
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers will be without arguably their best starting pitcher, Jimmy Nelson, until at least June, and that hurts. He has some upside, so I'd consider him a modest late-round flyer if your roster allows for stashing an arm. However, given the time off, the team may be understandably cautious when he does return. Next is Chase Anderson, who followed up a strong second half in 2016 with a solid season last year. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, although his strikeout rate and velocity both ticked up in 2017, so don't get carried away on draft day. Newly signed Jhoulys Chacin and veteran soft-tosser Zach Davies will handle the next two spots. The word is Chacin plans to use his change-up more – he'll need it to hopefully fool more hitters – and Davies is one of those guys who helps his actual team more than he helps a fantasy staff. I'm going to pass on both. The rest of the rotation walks the fence between interesting and scary. The interesting side includes young Brandon Woodruff and, to a lesser extent, swingman Brent Suter. Woodruff has the most upside of the starting options, and I think he could be worth a buck later in drafts. The scary side features Junior Guerra, journeyman Wade Miley and annual disappointment Yovani Gallardo. None of that trio is likely to have a spot on a winning fantasy team.
The Brewers might have a fairly shaky rotation, but they should be much happier with their bullpen. Corey Knebel was a beast, albeit with a few too many walks, and he'll headline the ninth inning again. Southpaw Josh Hader probably will remain his top set-up guy, assuming the Brewers don't feel compelled to throw him back in the rotation. I love Hader's stuff in the bullpen, but his secondary stuff might still be a rotation risk. Matt Albers will provide a useful bridge along with Jacob Barnes, Boone Logan, and perhaps even J.J. Hoover and Oliver Drake contributing.
Recapping the Brewers:
The arm to own:Brandon Woodruff
He's not for me:Junior Guerra
Best of the bullpen:Corey Knebel
Pittsburgh Pirates – You might be noticing a trend here. A couple of solid starters on each staff, followed by several potential time bombs. The Pirates fit loosely into that trend line, but they also have an "ace" on the horizon. Jameson Taillon has been a favorite of mine since he turned pro and that hasn't changed. He had a rough year last season, including treatment for testicular cancer. He returned amazingly fast, but he didn't seem to get his legs back under him. I'm all in banking on a huge 2018. With Gerrit Cole gone, Ivan Nova steps into the No. 2 spot – at least temporarily – and while he throws strikes and probably won't hurt you, I don't really anticipate anything outstanding. Now we venture into the fringier guys like Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams, who will all hope to take a step forward this year. I like Kuhl's stuff a bit if he can throw strikes while staying out of the middle of the plate, but Musgrove is better suited to the bullpen (assuming his shoulder woes don't turn into an issue), and Williams isn't likely to be much of a fantasy asset. The real talent behind Taillon hasn't made a mark yet. Tyler Glasnow and Mitch Keller both have very high ceilings, but Glasnow has yet to realize his stuff is good enough to play in Pittsburgh, and Keller is still navigating the minor league system. After Taillon, they are the Pirates' arms I want to own. Be patient, avoid the alternative, Steven Brault, and hope the wait is brief.
Last year we wanted the answer to, "Who will get the saves in Pittsburgh?" It was the $64,000 question. By June we had that answer – Felipe Rivero – and he just kept getting better as the season wore on. The Pirates are convinced (he inked a four-year contract) and so am I, so he should be considered a ninth inning anchor. They collected some support staff in Michael Feliz and Kyle Crick (big arms but they need to throw strikes), plus George Kontos who will join bullpen deep sleeper Dovydas Neverauskas. He has the arm if he develops a bit better feel.
Recapping the Pirates:
The arm to own: Jameson Taillon
He's not for me:Joe Musgrove
Best of the bullpen:Felipe Rivero
St. Louis Cardinals – In reviewing the Cardinals' rotation, I consider it one of the most intriguing. Carlos Martinez arguably is the staff leader these days and he deserves recognition, but he's also likely to be full price on draft day. Right at the top of the Cardinals' "hmmm" list would be Michael Wacha, who has pitched reasonably well for much of his career but has endured some bad luck, a few minor injuries and never seems to get a full workload (he hasn't exceeded 181 innings in a season). Perhaps the team is protecting him a bit? I'm going to recommend giving him serious consideration if he lasts like he has in some drafts. They also have Luke Weaver, who split the season between Triple-A Memphis and St. Louis. He pitched well in both places, and could build on that this year. Now we check in on Miles Mikolas. I saw glimpses of potential in him, despite his lackluster numbers, before he left to pitch three years for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. He enjoyed considerable success there, and while there certainly is some risk (and therefore some potential reward), I'm going to make him a late round draft day target, too. The fifth starter is likely to be a future Hall-of-Famer named Adam Wainwright. I don't often turn away from pitchers like him, but he has struggled mightily since tearing his Achilles in 2015 and he had arthroscopic elbow surgery last winter. He might bounce back with a strong season, but there is too much risk (in my opinion) right now. The team also has Alex Reyes – still one of the top pitching prospects (take note dynasty owners) – but he'll likely start the season in the bullpen as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, and Jack Flaherty, another quality kid worth monitoring closely if a rotation spot should open. I'll keep an eye on Wacha and Mikolas, maybe even Weaver and the kids, but there's decent chance I end up with at least one of these Cardinals' hurlers on my staff.
And now for something totally different – the bullpen. Where do I start? There are four pitchers who could be tabbed as a possible closer. Luke Gregerson was signed and designated the "likely favorite to close games," but then they added Bud Norris, who logged 19 saves for the Angels last season. Next was Dominic Leone, who did a nice job for the Blue Jays, albeit in a set-up role. They also have southpaw Tyler Lyons, and you could even stretch things to Matt Bowman (and others). Oh (not Seung Hwan), and don't forget future starter Reyes who has the best stuff of the bunch. Gregerson is better suited to set-up work, I'm not a believer in Norris, Lyons is most likely to offer some value as the left-handed side of a mix-and-match, and I'd be surprised if they install Reyes as a full-time closer, which leaves Leone as a lukewarm choice. However, this has all the makings of a true committee, so I think I'll stay away.
Recapping the Cardinals:
The arm to own:Michael Wacha or Miles Mikolas
He's not for me:Adam Wainwright
Best of the bullpen:Dominic Leone
Next week we'll look at the AL Central.
