The Z Files: Candidates To Lose Homers With the New Baseball

Several weeks ago, MLB announced changes to this season's baseball. Specifically, it will be a bit softer, decreasing the coefficient of restitution, or bounciness. Initial tests estimate the drop in exit velocity will cost a 375-foot fly ball a couple feet in distance. It remains to be seen what will transpire in games, as there are other factors at work. However, until we see the new ball in regular season play, all we can do is speculate.

A leading indicator of home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) is average fly ball distance. This was first presented by Mike Podhorzer of Rotographs. It's become one of my favorite analytical tools.

Intuitively, not all batters will be influenced equally if the ball acts as suggested. Those with a very low average fly ball distance don't hit enough homers with which to be concerned. The group with an exceptionally high distance likely won't be affected either, as losing a foot or two will rarely matter.

Graphing several season's worth of HR/FB versus average fly ball distance data reveals a point where losing a few feet of distance will cost a disproportionate number of homers relative to those with a greater or lesser average flight. The not-so-sweet spot is between 313 and 320 feet. As such, it stands to reason players with a historical average fly ball distance in this range are more susceptible to a power drop than the rest of the field. It's not as simple as that, since the player's home park could help mitigate the drop, but this is all speculation anyway.

Below are several tables with some commentary.

GROUP I: Batters RotoWire projects to hit at least 20 homers but are in the most danger of being hurt by the less bouncy baseball.

GROUP II: Those also expected to knock at least 20 out of the yard, but who shouldn't be affected as much.

GROUP III: Hitters we project to bash fewer than 20 dingers but are relevant enough names that you should be aware they could lose a long ball or two.

GROUP I

It's not a coincidence several in this group were the chief beneficiaries of the 2019 power surge, as this is the range helped most by the additional five to 10 feet of extra distance resulting from less wind resistance. For what it's worth, 2019 average fly ball distances were normalized when doing the initial research.

GROUP II

GROUP III

SUMMARY

Keeping in mind this is all speculation, the above are by no means lists of players to fade. Perhaps it's best to avoid rostering too many from GROUP 1, but don't get carried away.

Something to keep in mind is we'll have a good idea of how the ball is playing by mid-April. We just may not know why, which is the key to adjusting. If you recall, there were some studies done on the ball in early April in 2019, so we indeed knew the root of the early power surge. Trust me, I'll be monitoring things early and if there's any pertinent takeaways, you'll be the first to know.