Three Up, Three Down: Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox

As we all know, prospect development is not linear. Players that look to be the next big thing will have down years only to bounce back a year — or more — later, and prospects that looked like organizational depth become potential stars only to face regression the next season. A prospect list is just a moment in time, and those players very rarely remain stagnant in their respective spot. 

This week, let's take a look at the prospects who saw their stock rise — and some whose stock fell — from the Rays, Blue Jays and White Sox. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Three Up

Junior Caminero, 2B/3B: Well, duh. Caminero went from an intriguing lottery ticket to legitimately one of the best prospects in the sport, with some scouts believing he has the highest upside of any hitter in the minors. The former Cleveland prospect registered a .975 OPS with 31 homers in the minors and held his own with a .235/.278/.353 slash line in a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay to end the 2023 campaign.

Level of optimism: High. Again, duh. Caminero has a chance for plus-plus tools in the hit and power areas, and while he's not going to be an elite defender at either second or third, he's capable enough for the bat to play. There are very few prospects in baseball that have true star potential. Caminero is one of them. 

Xavier Isaac, 1B: Isaac was a surprising first-round selection in the 2022 draft, but he certainly looked like one — and then some — in his 2023 campaign, hitting .285/.395/.521 while reaching High-A as a 19-year-old. The left-handed first baseman shows a quality approach at the plate with (relatively) little swing-and-miss and appears to be tapping into his power with 43 extra-base hits last season.

Level of optimism: Moderate to high. Isaac's swing is a pretty one to look at, and the fact he's able to recognize pitches so well at such a young age is another plus. The concern I have is that he's limited to first base defensively, so the bat is going to have to max out in order for him to reach his ceiling. The talent is there, but there's a little more risk that comes with the potential reward because of his position.

Santiago Suarez, RHP: Suarez was yet another pickup for the Rays who didn't have much fanfare, but the 18-year-old really impressed with a 1.52 ERA while reaching full-season ball with a strong 52:11 K:BB and 1.01 WHIP over 59.1 innings. That'll play.

Level of optimism: Moderate. Suarez is still filling out his frame but is already getting into the mid-90s with some solid spin. He also throws strikes with two secondary offerings and repeats his delivery well, so control shouldn't be a problem. Neither of those pitches projects plus at this point, however, so while Suarez certainly has a chance to be a quality starter, he'll need to see some improvements in order to be more than a mid-rotation arm. 

Three Down

Willy Vasquez, INF: Vasquez looked like he was on the rise coming into 2023 but took a step backwards in 2023 with just a .703 OPS during his time with High-A Bowling Green, striking out 109 times in 110 games. That, on top of the strong seasons from some of the other infield bats in the Rays' system, means a player who was firmly in the discussion for the team's top 10 to begin 2023 will be quite a bit lower when 2024 comes around. 

Level of concern: Moderate to low. It was no doubt a disappointing campaign for Vasquez, but I still see reason for optimism. He still showed a quality approach at the plate with 46 walks, and there's well above-average power in his right-handed bat to go with above-average speed. He's not a fast-track prospect, but I wouldn't give up on Vasquez in dynasty leagues just yet. 

Sandy Gaston, RHP: Gaston entered the year as one of the top relief prospects in the sport, and while he still offers plenty of intrigue, his 2023 season won't be counted as a success. He finished with an abhorrent 7.09 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in his 47 innings for reasons that will be explained in the next section.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. Gaston also struck out 53 batters in those 47 innings, so the swing-and-miss stuff with a 70-grade fastball and above-average slider are still there. That stuff doesn't matter if you can't throw strikes, however, and the 21-year-old has walked over a batter an inning the last two years, including 48 in his 47 frames in 2023. There's time to figure it out, but there's a lot of work to be done. A lot. 

Carlos Colmenarez, OF: Colmenarez was given a $3 million bonus in January of 2021 and was a player who showed four plus tools upon entering the Tampa Bay system. Those tools — for the most part — weren't on display in 2023 as often, as he finished the year with a slash line of .211/.349/.313, managing just 18 extra-base hits in 304 at-bats.

Level of concern: Moderate to low. Power was the biggest concern for Colmenarez when he signed with Tampa Bay, and it obviously hasn't gotten much better in his time in the system thus far. That being said, his approach is still sound with a line-drive stroke, and he's a strong athlete who can play a quality shortstop. Like Vazquez, he's not going to be helping soon, but the talent is still here for him to be a strong option, perhaps even a fantasy-relevant one. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Three Up 

Orelvis Martinez, 3B: "Up" here is subjective; Martinez likely ranks right around where he did to begin 2022, but it's a lot easier to feel confident in the infielder based on how he finished 2023. He blasted 28 homers while reaching Triple-A with an OPS of .836, and that number jumped to .847 while he finished the year with Buffalo, with his average jump to .263 compared to the .226 he procured in Double-A.

Level of optimism: Moderate. This is a tricky one. I thought people were a little too harsh on Martinez based on his struggles in 2022 as a 20-year-old while playing in Double-A. I also think people might be going a little overboard — just based on some quick conversations, of course — with what we saw in 2023. The strengths are obvious: plus-plus power, a strong throwing arm and the ability to hit the ball hard to all parts of the field. The weaknesses are just as glaring, however, with loads of contact issues and mediocre defense at the hot corner. Long story short: Martinez is a must-have in dynasty leagues, but there are lots of possible outcomes for this type of profile.

Alan Roden, OF: Roden was drafted with the 89th pick in 2022 after putting up sensational numbers at Creighton, and he showed that those numbers weren't smoke and mirrors in 2023. The outfielder stole 24 bases while slashing .317/.430/.459 and finishing his first full professional season at the Double-A ranks with New Hampshire.

Level of optimism: Moderate to high. The one thing Roden doesn't have in his toolset is above-average power, as his swing is mostly geared towards contact. That said, he can put the ball into the gaps with solid — if unspectacular — speed, and his approach at the plate is outstanding. He looks to be a top of the order type of hitter, and he's one who isn't getting nearly enough attention as a potential fantasy contributor. 

Damiano Palmegiani, 3B/1B: Palmegiani was a 14th-round selection out of Bryce Harper University, a.k.a. College of Southern Nevada, and while he's hit at every level, things escalated with his strong play in Triple-A after a promotion there over the summer. He hit .284 with a .981 OPS in his time with Buffalo, and that was following 19 homers with an .814 OPS with New Hampshire prior to the promotion.

Level of optimism: Moderate. Palmegiani has a chance to be a three true outcome hitter with easy plus power in his right-handed bat and an approach that suggests he should draw his fair share of walks. He also has significant contact issues, with 153 strikeouts over 128 games helping prove that point, and he's not a great defender. The offensive upside is intriguing, but there's no denying there's risk that comes with the reward.

Three Down

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP: Tiedemann started the 2023 season as one of the highest-rated pitching prospects in baseball, and justifiably so based on his sensational 2022 campaign. Unfortunately, injuries limited the southpaw to just 44 innings and 15 starts, and the results were mixed with a 3.68 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in that timeframe.

Level of concern: Moderate to low. Injuries are always concerning — especially for a pitcher, obvious point is obvious — but Tiedemann still showed off his ability to miss bats with an impressive 82 strikeouts over those 44 frames. He's still a hurler with three plus offerings at his best, and the command should be good enough to start. You have to factor in some risk because he's never thrown 100 innings, but in terms of pure upside, there are few pitchers that compete with Tiedemann.

Manuel Beltre, SS: The Jays give Beltre a $2.35 million signing bonus, and at the plate at least, things haven't worked out so well so far. The 19-year-old didn't have much success at Low-A Dunedin, as he finished the year with a .231/.335/.340 slash with just six homers in 368 at-bats in the Florida State League.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. Beltre remains a strong defender at shortstop, and the Blue Jays will remain patient with a player they gave a large financial investment to who doesn't turn 20 until next June. That being said, very little suggests he can be a legitimate offensive threat, and there's reason to believe he won't reach fantasy relevance based on the start to his professional career. 

Irv Carter, RHP: Carter was a teammate in high school with Andrew Painter, and while he didn't show quite that same type of stuff as a prep arm, he did have enough upside that the Blue Jays were willing to give him an $850,000 bonus in the 2021 draft despite being "only" a fifth-round selection. He showed significant upside in 2022 despite a 5.40 ERA, but positive moments were few and far between last season with an 8.60 ERA in 13 appearances — 10 of those starts.

Level of concern: High. Like the majority of the prospects we've written about so far, there's time for Carter to figure things out; he spent all of the 2023 season as a 20-year-old. There's also a lot of reason for concern, however, when you can't throw strikes and you walk 31 hitters in 37.2 innings to go with just 30 strikeouts. This was a breakout candidate for 2023. It's hard to justify considering him one for 2024. 

Chicago White Sox

Three Up

Colson Montgomery, SS: The White Sox have a few guys who saw massive improvements in their stock last season, but none more than Montgomery. The 2021 first-round pick is discussed by many as one of the best prospects in the sport, and while he was limited to just 64 games in 2023, his .939 OPS with eight homers justified that consideration.

Level of optimism: High. The only thing that gives me some pause with considering Montgomery a top 10 prospect is that he hasn't played a 100-game season yet. That being said, his talent is sensational, with a chance for 60-grade hit, 60-grade power and solid — if unspectacular — defense at shortstop. Add in a feel for the game that scouts can't help but rave about, and Montgomery has a chance to be a superstar. Only Caminero bests Montgomery of the prospects we've talked about thus far. 

Noah Schultz, LHP: It was only 10 appearances for Schultz, but statistically at least, there weren't many pitchers better than him. He finished 2023 with a miniscule 1.33 ERA, and he held hitters to a .175 average with a strong 38:6 K:BB after returning to the mound at the start of June following a shoulder strain that caused him to miss the first two months.

Level of optimism: High. I considered going moderate to high, if only because he's a 6-foot-9 pitcher that also missed the final month of the season due to a shoulder impingement. Still, this is a former first-round pick that has imposing size, solid command for his age/height and a slider that competes with any prospect in the sport. He could be an ace someday.

Terrell Tatum, OF: Tatum was drafted without much fanfare out of North Carolina State in 2021 with the 485th pick (16th round), but the outfielder has gained some fans in his time in the Chicago system. He drew 100 walks while stealing 47 bases all while reaching Double-A in 2023, and is one of the more underrated fantasy prospects in the American League, if not all of baseball.

Level of optimism: Moderate to high. This would have just been a "high" grade if not for some struggles in Double-A Birmingham to end the year, as his OPS was .676 with the Barons compared to .855 with High-A Winston Salem. Still, the ability to get on base, go get it in the outfield and steal bases is awfully intriguing, and he makes sense as a buy-low fantasy option in dynasty/keeper formats.

Three Down

Ky Bush, LHP: Bush came over to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito deal, and he didn't have a great time statistically after that trade. He wasn't exactly dominating in the Los Angeles system as seen in a 5.88 ERA in Double-A Rocket City, but that number jumped up to 6.70 with only 36 strikeouts over 41.2 innings of work with Birmingham. 

Level of concern: Moderate to high. Bush has solid stuff, with two offspeed pitches that grade plus at times in his changeup and slider. He doesn't have a big fastball, so those pitches have to max out, and the fact that his command appears to be going backwards is obviously not a great development, either. He'll need to see significant improvement in 2024 to suggest he can be anything more than a backend arm after looking like a potential mid-rotation starter coming into 2023.

Norge Vera, RHP: Vera was considered by many to be the top pitching prospects available at the international level when he signed back in 2021, and the White Sox gave him a $1.5 million bonus suggesting they felt the same. After a solid — but injury-shortened — 2022 season, the right-hander was only able to accrue 15 innings due to a back injury in 2023, struggling to a 6.60 ERA and even uglier 2.27 WHIP.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. The fact that Vera will turn 24 in November and hasn't pitched above Double-A only adds to the concern, but it's really his lack of refinement that is troubling. Even with a plus-plus fastball and well above-average curve, it's hard to have too much excitement about a pitcher that can't throw consistent strikes. I can't help but be intrigued by what Vera could do out of the bullpen, however, with those two offerings at his disposal.

Wes Kath, 3B: Kath was a disaster in 2023, and there's really no sugarcoating it. The 57th pick of the 2021 draft hit .193 with a .586 OPS for High-A Winston-Salem, and he only was able to homer eight times in 347 at-bats with the Dash. 

Level of concern: High. Real high, if we're being honest. Kath showed big-time power potential as a prep bat in Arizona, but it doesn't matter how much pop you have if you can't put the bat to the ball. Kath struck out a whopping 168 times in those 347 at-bats, and none of his tools are good enough to suggest he can be an MLB player if those punchouts continue. This was a Top 10 prospect in the Chicago system entering 2022. He won't come anywhere close to that number, in my humble estimation, in 2024.