This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIL (-9.5) vs. CHA, O/U: 223.5
OKC vs. BOS (-10.5), O/U: 215.5
POR (-4.5) vs. IND, O/U: 233.5
BKN (-6.5) vs. TOR, O/U: 231.5
MIN (-1.5) vs. HOU, O/U: 229.5
DAL (-1.5) vs. GS, O/U: 225.5
The POR-IND matchup will be a popular target and rightfully so, as it features the highest total on the slate and affordable value on both sides. Jusuf Nurkic will be chalky at center against a Pacers frontcourt that's still missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Indiana has been a popular source of value over the last couple of weeks and I'd expect the same tonight, while both teams have spend-up options with considerable ceiling potential.
The MIN-HOU matchup is another good target as it's projected to be competitive and neither team plays much defense. All of the Rockets get a bump after John Wall was ruled out for the season but they're especially depleted at guard. The Timberwolves are playing the second half of a back-to-back, so keep an eye out for news as we've seen D'Angelo Russell rest in these spots recently. He's coming off 53 DK points Monday and has seen 30-plus minutes in consecutive games as he continues to get his legs back following a long injury layoff. He's more than viable if he plays but if he sits, a significant amount of usage would shift to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards.
Injuries to Monitor
Jayson Tatum (ankle): OUT
Tatum will sit out the front end of a back-to-back due to an ankle injury. Semi Ojeleye and Jabari Parker will likely see expanded roles in his absence.
Domantas Sabonis (back): OUT
Sabonis will miss a fifth consecutive game as he continues to deal with lower-back soreness. Goga Bitadze (ankle) is also questionable after missing the past three games. Oshae Brissett and JaKarr Sampson started in the frontcourt last time out.
Kristaps Porzingis (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Porzingis missed Monday's game due to an ankle injury and his status for tonight is uncertain. Dwight Powell got the start at center in his place.
Kemba Walker (rest): OUT
Walker will be rested for the front half of a back-to-back. Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier and Payton Pritchard should see extra minutes at point guard.
John Wall (hamstring): OUT
Wall will miss the rest of the season as he recovers from various injuries. Armoni Brooks is expected to start at point guard going forward.
Luguentz Dort (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Dort sat out the front end of a back-to-back Monday but is expected to return tonight. Kenrich Williams started at shooting guard in his place.
Robert Williams (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Knee soreness has sidelined Williams for six consecutive games, but he has chance to return tonight. Tristan Thompson has been starting at center in his absence.
Elite Players
Guard:
Stephen Curry ($10,300)
Curry is coming off 55.75 DK points last time out and he's topped 60 in four of his last eight games. The GS-DAL matchup is one of the more appealing targets on the slate as it's one of the few games projected to be competitive and it tips off last at 9:30 p.m. EDT. I prefer Curry head-to-head against Luka Doncic based on salary and ceiling potential.
Kyrie Irving ($9,500)
Irving has put up at least 60 DK points in two of his last three games, but he's seen a drop in salary for no apparent reason as the Nets are still without James Harden and other key role players. Tonight's matchup against the Raptors has a 231.5 total and should stay close.
Center:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)
Towns has seen a significant drop in salary after failing to reach 50 DK points in five of his last six games. The Timberwolves are in a great spot against the Rockets, who have no answers for Towns on the defensive end. He would be especially appealing if D'Angelo Russell rests for the second half of a back-to-back.
Forward:
Luka Doncic ($10,900)
Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate tonight. He's put up less than 50 DK points in consecutive games and the Mavericks are playing the second half of a back-to-back with Kristaps Porzingis likely to return after resting Monday. I'd prefer to spend up elsewhere.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700)
Giannis has put up 58-plus DK points in three consecutive games despite not seeing more than 35 minutes in any of them. The Bucks are big favorites against the Hornets and Giannis can hit a ceiling game even with limited run. There is plenty of mid-range value on the slate, so the decision of whether or not to spend all the way up at forward should depend on how the good the cheap value is at other positions.
Expected Chalk
Armoni Brooks ($4,300)
Brooks is now the de facto starting point guard for the Rockets after John Wall was ruled out for season. Brooks played 42 minutes last time out and I'd expect similar run tonight with Houston so depleted at guard. The matchup against the Timberwolves is one of the more appealing spots on the slate and he will be quite popular with such an affordable salary.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800)
Nurkic is coming off back-to-back monster games of 53.75 and 59.75 DK points and he did so while playing just 29 minutes in each. I expect him to be popular in a matchup against the Pacers, who are short-handed in the frontcourt and lack the size to contain him.
Value Picks
Jaylen Brown ($8,400)
The Celtics will be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum and that leaves quite a bit of usage up for grabs, some of which will definitely go to Brown. He's topped 55 DK points twice in his last seven games.
Kevin Durant ($8,300)
Durant is coming off 53 DK points in just 28 minutes last time out. His salary is still supressed and I'd expect him to get a bit more run in a favorable matchup against the Raptors.
Christian Wood ($8,000) and Kelly Olynyk ($6,600)
Wood put up 51.25 DK points last time out and has now scored 50-plus in three of his last seven games. He should get a usage bump in the absence of Wall and has seen a drop in salary for a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves. Olynyk has topped 45 DK points in consecutive games, and he's an appealing option for same reasons as Wood.
Kevin Porter ($6,500)
Porter is another Rocket who stands to benefit in Wall's absence, as he should see an increase in shot attempts and assist rate. He's in a nice spot against the Timberwolves and I wouldn't expect his salary to stay under 7K for long.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are still without Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner while Goga Bitadze and Jeremy Lamb are listed as questionable. Malcolm Brogdon ($8,800) has seen a well-deserved salary bump after putting up 45-plus DK points in six of his last nine games while topping 60 twice in that span. Edmond Sumner ($4,000) has scored at least 30 DK points in back-to-back games while seeing 34 minutes or more in each. Only a blowout prevented Oshae Brissett ($5,000) from his third consecutive double-double last time out. Keep an eye on the status of Bitadze and Lamb, as their recent absences have firmed up the minutes of Indiana's ancillary pieces.
