This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The starting lineups get weirder and weirder as we head into the home stretch! Be sure to double-check your lineups during this extra-volatile time for NBA DFS. FanDuel's seven-game offering begins at 7:00 p.m. ET, and we'll begin by looking at the odds.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
WAS @ IND (-3.5) O/U: 248
DET @ PHI (-10.5) O/U: 222
MEM @ TOR (+5) O/U: 226.5
OKC @ GSW (-14.5) O/U: 223.5
SAS @ POR (-4.5) O/U: 229.5
HOU @ UTA (-14.5) O/U: 227
BKN @ DEN (+4) O/U: 231
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Sixers, Rockets, Jazz, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets
INJURIES
IND Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT
IND Edmond Sumner (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
We're still waiting for a return from Brogdon. No one is really distinguishing themselves as a quality pivot on the squad, although T.J. McConnell ($6,200) finally showed up with a decent total against the Hawks.
DET Cory Joseph (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
DET Josh Jackson (tooth) - OUT
DET Wayne Ellington (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
The value spots are evaporating in Detroit as both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are slated to return. Joseph could also be back, so you'd have to wait on slotting in Killian Hayes ($5,100). For the salary, Sekou Doumbouya ($4,800) is still a decent value pivot.
TOR Fred VanVleet (rest) - OUT
TOR Kyle Lowry (rest) - OUT
TOR OG Anunoby (calf) - OUT
TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT
The Raptors seem to be resigned to their fate now, and there's little point in risking further injury to VanVleet and Lowry. This scenario puts Gary Trent ($5,000) in a smash spot unless he gets a rest tag later in the day. Pivoting to DeAndre' Bembry ($3,800) would then become more palatable. Malachi Flynn ($5,300) will take over the duties at point guard.
OKC Luguentz Dort (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Aleksej Pokusevski (knee) - OUT
Darius Bazley ($6,500) remains the best option here, especially in Pokusevski's absence. Ideally, this is a team to avoid.
GSW Kelly Oubre (wrist) - OUT
Kent Bazemore ($5,500) will continue to start in Oubre's place, while Andrew Wiggins ($7,400) should also continue to see positive lines in this scenario.
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Kevin Porter (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Jae'Sean Tate (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The Rockets brought out an almost unrecognizable starting five in Friday's game. If none of these players return, expect to see more of D.J. Augustin ($3,900), Anthony Lamb ($4,400) and Kenyon Martin ($4,400). Monitor this spot closely, as swap opportunities will emerge when this game locks. With several elites going off at 10:00 p.m., you may be able to grab an additional high-dollar target by swapping on breaking news for Houston.
UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT
UTA Mike Conley (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
Conley has a fighting chance to return tonight, so we'll have to wait and see, but Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700) remains a favorite call in this framework, but both Jordan Clarkson ($7,300) and Joe Ingles ($6,400) are definitely in the mix as more expensive options.
ELITE PLAYERS
At long last, FanDuel has finally jacked up Russell Westbrook's ($12,000) salary. We haven't seen a 12k number for a player in a long time, but the salary is entirely appropriate. 60 FDFP would be 5x value, and over the past month, he's exceeded that number about 50 percent of the time. The increase isn't enough to fade him, although it's reasonable to say that his rostership percentage might take a small hit as a result. The pace will be very fast against the Pacers, who may be without Malcolm Brogdon again. I see no reason not to spend up.
Elsewhere in the 10k range, we have several players who should all see prolific totals. Of the group, Stephen Curry ($10,200) against the Thunder and Domantas Sabonis ($10,600) against the Wizards are the best smash situations, but you also can't discount Kevin Durant ($10,600) or Kyrie Irving ($10,100). I would favor Irving over Durant because Nikola Jokic ($11,200) will be patrolling inside and should have stewardship over the interior in one of the best spots possible.
As we move down into the 9k range, we see several more attractive options. It may finally be time to go to Bradley Beal ($9,000) at this salary as a cheaper way to enjoy the pace of the WAS/IND matchup. We also will see a potentially overworked Pascal Siakam ($8,900) put up a good number while shorthanded against the Grizzlies. Blow-out risk and fourth-quarter rest against Detroit concerns me regarding Joel Embiid ($9,600), so spending up for Jokic or finding center value may be the other way to go. Conversely, It would be foolish to fade Damian Lillard ($9,400) as he attempts to will his team into the play-in game. Finally, I would be willing to go back to the well with Caris LeVert ($8,600) if Brogdon remains out, but he may be too costly otherwise. I'll conclude with selecting three top plays, and they are Jokic, Lillard and Siakam.
EXPECTED CHALK
DeMar DeRozan, SAS ($8,500) @ POR
Expect at least 35 minutes from DeRozan in what is a must-win game for the Spurs. Aside from the BKN/DEN game, this could be the most competitive contest on the slate, as both teams are gunning for a playoff spot. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so there's no real advantage here, although Portland will play on its home court.
Kelly Olynyk, HOU ($8,100) @ UTA
If Houston sends out the same starting five, all of them are in great value spots. I will only lock Olynyk in if Wood sits out as expected, but he's still a powerful play independent of Wood's status. He'll be forced to play at least 30 minutes, and it's hard to fade a guy who's basically averaging a double-double over his past 10 contests. He'll also be a bit less popular than other options at the center slot, making him a worthwhile tournament option.
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($8,000) @ TOR
It's unfair to tempt our readers with too many centers because we know our inability to roster more than one player with a C designation. Still, I'm intrigued by Valanciunas in this spot. His floor is a bit more volatile than we've seen in previous seasons, but he has a pretty significant size advantage over Khem Birch. Neither team is playing for much at this point, but as long as JoVal can stand under the basket and grab errant shots, he'll rack up rebounds video-game style.
Michael Porter, DEN ($7,000) vs. BKN
This is one of the most intriguing price drops I've seen in recent memory. Sure, Porter's numbers are down from his previous dizzying levels, but it isn't entirely his fault. The Nuggets didn't need him to go off, so they didn't play him for his usual minutes in some of these recent contests. Saturday's matchup against the Nets is another story entirely. In what could very well be an NBA Finals preview, this game will be extremely competitive, and Porter has thrived in those situations. While this is ultimately an incredible spot for Jokic, Porter will almost certainly get his and could smash relative to his salary.
Also consider: Draymond Green, GSW ($7,900) vs. OKC
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, most of our value exists in our injury section, but we'll need to reaffirm the Houston and Toronto value available tonight. Beyond those we've already mentioned, you can find additional value in Toronto with Stanley Johnson ($3,600), and Armoni Brooks ($4,000) is a guy who could deliver for Houston.
Facundo Campazzo, DEN ($6,100) vs. BKN
The maturation process for Campazzo has been on overdrive since he took over for Jamal Murray, and while he's directing the floor well, it's his peripheral stats that are taking him to the next level. Although we could hope for a bit more shot volume, he's averaged 6.5 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals over the past 10 games. He's exploded for five steals a couple of times during that span. If you combine that with Kyrie Irving's propensity to cough up the ball, you could see some impressive numbers from the youngster against Brooklyn.
Jakob Poeltl, SAS ($5,900) @ POR
I apologize in advance for endorsing way too many centers here. It will benefit the MME players out there, as you'll be able to diversify your lineups with a wide variety of big men. As said previously, this is a must-win for the Spurs, and although a matchup against Jusuf Nurkic isn't the best spot Poeltl could find, he's earned some respect since taking over for LaMarcus Aldridge. He's coming off a double-double against Sacramento, which is his second in his past four games.
Justin Holiday, IND ($4,300) vs. WAS
Assuming Indiana's rotation remains the same, it's reasonable to take a flier on Holiday at a discount. The fast pace and Holiday's recent standout bench contributions make him a likely candidate to surpass 20 FP, and potentially a bit more than that. The Pacers will take whoever is hot and play them to help out Sabonis, and Holiday could end up being that guy.
Mychal Mulder, GSW ($3,800) vs. OKC
Although this endorsement carries some risk, Mulder looks to be a great play if the game gets out of hand. The Warriors will try to put this game out of reach early as they try to solidify their post-season position, and the rotation will likely give way to Mulder as a placeholder in Kelly Oubre's spot.
