This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Saturday's action features Game 3s from the Eastern and Western semifinals. The Bucks and Celtics begin the slate with an early tip-off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
SLATE OVERVIEW
MIL (-2) vs. BOS O/U: 213
GSW (-7) vs. MEM O/U: 225.5
The MEM/GSW matchup holds the higher projected game total, and you'll find that Golden State endorsements are prominently displayed all over this article. You can expect the BOS/MIL game to be won or lost on defense, and while we have several excellent options in the early game, I would defer to the later game if you're looking for a tiebreaker between two players. It also appears that the guard position provides more value spots than the other positions, so the ideal spend-up spots favor the forward and center slots.
INJURIES
MIL Khris Middleton (knee) - OUT
The Middleton injury still looms large, but the Bucks have adjusted by situating Bobby Portis ($5,900) in the frontcourt and placing Giannis Antetokounmpo in a do-everything role at the wing. Portis is the obvious pivot over weaker considerations like Wesley Matthews.
MEM Dillon Brooks (suspension) - OUT
GSW Gary Payton (elbow) - OUT
As expected, the league levied a suspension to Brooks after a hard foul that resulted in a fractured elbow for Gary Payton, who will also miss time. Ziaire Williams ($4,700) is a budget pivot who should see plenty of run in Brooks' absence, but Brandon Clarke ($5,600) should also be considered in this situation. It's unclear what the Warriors might do with their second unit, but it will definitely increase Jordan Poole's ($7,000) usage off the bench.
ELITE PLAYERS
This game combination definitely favors more of a stars-and-scrub approach where you'll want to squeeze in as many elites as you possibly can. It's not the least bit surprising to see Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) sitting atop the pile with the highest salary. Giannis began this series with a triple-double and regressed a bit in Game 2, but with a 5x value mark of 55 FDFP, the potential to be worth his lofty salary is very high. Joining him in the 10k-plus range is Ja Morant ($10,800), who has absolutely crushed value in two games against the Grizzlies, with totals of 75.6 and 65.8 FDFP. His salary has risen with every game, but his recent numbers would certainly justify a much higher salary point.
As we slide further down the ranks, the pairing of Boston's Jayson Tatum ($10,000) and Jaylen Brown ($8,800) makes for an intriguing Celtics stack, while guard options like Stephen Curry ($9,500) and Jrue Holiday ($8,300) are ideal if you elect to take a slightly more contrarian route and utilize two guards as spend-up options. I especially like Holiday at this salary point. If he can come close to his 50.3-FDFP performance in Game 1 and get a better handle on his shooting stroke, hr could reap maximum benefit at $8,300.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Al Horford, BOS ($7,000) @ MIL
Even with Robert Williams ($5,100) and Grant Williams ($4,500) healthy and productive, Horford is still seeing an average of 36.5 minutes in this series and dazzled with double-doubles in both games. Both Williams boys come at a lower salary and have a shot at being worthwhile as they have not demonstrated an ability to have a significant impact with fewer minutes, but due to their popularity, the slightly higher-priced Horford could sneak in with a lower rostership percentage than most people would expect. Although RotoWire has projected him to show up in 25 percent of rosters, those chasing salary relief could opt for the other center options for Boston, resulting in a lower DFS usage for Horford.
Draymond Green, GSW ($6,500) vs. MEM
Green had to leave the game briefly due to a hit to the face and returned with stitches. He should be good to go for Game 3. He didn't break 30 FDFP in Game 1 and Game 2, and it's resulted in a $500 drop in salary from the $7,000 playoff high. The reduction doesn't help him much if he fails to break 30 again, but he broke 30 FDFP consistently against Denver, which showcased a tougher frontcourt challenge with Nikola Jokic at the helm. It's reasonable to predict a change in his fortunes for Game 3.
Klay Thompson ($6,200) and Andrew Wiggins ($6,100), GSW vs. MEM
This game has the higher O/U total, and both of these standouts have posted great numbers in this series so far. Thompson still hasn't hit his full potential against Memphis after turning in several stellar shooting nights against Denver, but Wiggins' heightened role as a frontcourt threat has helped his totals against Boston. I would take a shot with Thompson in tournaments, while Wiggins' floor makes him a nice option for cash games.
Also consider: Marcus Smart, BOS ($6,300) @ MIL - Smart's probable tag may drive down his popularity. Assuming he is good to go, he'll be a great way to get unique at PG or SG.
VALUE PLAYS
De'Anthony Melton, MEM ($5,500) @ GSW
For whatever reason, the Warriors have figured out how to contain Desmond Bane ($5,800), and so far, the production just hasn't been there. That's not the case for Melton, who has outperformed projections in two straight games. Bane's struggles against the Warriors give a play for Melton a little more credence. I would only pivot to someone like Tyus Jones ($3,800) if I desperately needed salary relief or was close to a higher-tier player at another position.
Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,000) vs, BOS
It's easy to forget about Lopez, and since he doesn't enjoy the dual eligibility that has been gifted to other centers in the playoffs, his utilization is limited. Still, he posted 30 FDFP in Game 1 with three blocked shots, and his presence is stronger without Khris Middleton in the fold. There's definitely credence to opting for Lopez in the center spot for Game 3.
Also consider: Jonathan Kuminga, GSW ($3,900) vs. MEM
