NBA Draft Kit: Busts

The NBA season brings disappointment in all shapes and sizes, and fantasy basketball games have even more ways to hurt you. First-round pick goes bust? You're in trouble. Another top pick underperforms? You're pretty much dead.

Many fantasy disappointments are injury related and nearly impossible to predict. You'll never know ahead of time when a key player will tear an ACL or break his fifth metatarsal. But other problems aren't quite as hard to see coming. And that's what we're talking about in this column.

Understand: the players we're listing in this space aren't bad at basketball. In fact, some of this season's potential fantasy busts are elite, generational stars. But we're not talking about talent; this is all about actual value versus perceived value.

With that in mind:

Did you watch any of the Olympic basketball tournament this summer? Specifically, the preliminary round game against Australia? It was notable for a variety of reasons. Matthew Dellavedova went nuts, dropping 30 points and keeping the Boomers in the game. Carmelo Anthony became Team USA's all-time leading scorer. Kyrie Irving and Melo took turns hitting clutch shots in the fourth quarter to close things out.

And for large stretches of that fourth quarter, Kevin Durant was totally invisible.

In other games – including the gold-medal contest against Serbia – Durant was his usual dominant self. And therein lies the problem. With Durant added to the mix, the Warriors are stacked deeper than any squad that isn't playing for gold, silver and bronze. Some nights, Durant will be the alpha dog. Some nights, Stephen Curry will get hot, or Klay Thompson will be unconscious from downtown. But they won't post the same sort of numbers they did last year. They won't need to.

They also won't need to win 73 games again. After the way last season ended, it seems fair to expect the Warriors to be more focused on the postseason, and less on setting regular-season records. It wouldn't even be at all surprising if Steve Kerr were to emulate Gregg Popovich when it comes to resting his key guys.

Again, this is no knock on Durant or Curry or Thompson. They're outstanding players. I simply don't think they will produce numbers that will match what many are expecting from them this season.
Some other players I don't think will meet expectations:

Aaron Gordon: Gordon should have been primed for a breakout season, especially with the maddening Scott Skiles out of the picture. But the acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo leave Gordon without a position. He'll either be pushed to small forward – a position he's ill-suited to play – or forced to the bench. Either way, that doesn't exactly scream "breakout imminent."

Dion Waiters: Another breakout candidate, right? Strong showing in the playoffs, slots nicely into Dwyane Wade's spot, and hey, isn't he a poor man's D-Wade anyway? The problem is, as Ken Crites notes in his Southeast Division preview, Waiters is a one-year stopgap, while second-year pro Josh Richardson is signed for two more years and was absolutely deadly from three-point range last season.

Dwyane Wade: Speaking of D-Wade, the homecoming story is nice and all, but how does he fit on the Bulls, exactly? Wade's always been at his best with the ball in his hands, breaking opponents down off the dribble. But now he'll have to share that role with Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler. Frankly, I don't have a ton of faith in Fred Hoiberg's ability to sort out that potential conflict.

Jahlil Okafor: The problem with drafting "best talent available – ideally one we won't actually have to play this year" for several years in a row (thanks, Sam Hinkie, we miss you) is blindingly obvious when you look at the Sixers' depth chart. They've got Joel Embiid, Okafor and Nerlens Noel. At power forward, there's Okafor, first overall pick Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric in some order. And at the other three positions there's a shrugging emoji. The logjam at power forward probably hurts Okafor most. Unlike Saric or Simmons, he's not going to be able to step out and play the wing. Unlike Noel, he's not the sort of player who can make a living off defense, tip-ins and putbacks; he needs to be a major focus of the offense to have a positive impact on games. And he needs someone to get him the ball, which means he'll be hurt more than the others by the Sixers' ugly point guard situation.

Kyle Korver: Expecting a bounce-back campaign from Korver? At age 35? Good luck with that. Korver will get minutes, if only because Tim Hardaway isn't good enough to take them from him, but the efficiency that made Korver so valuable in fantasy is more than likely a thing of the past.

Brandon Jennings: First, an admission. If you've read basically any of my columns on RotoWire ever, you know I'm a Knicks fan. I'll cop to it. I'm actively rooting for both Derrick Rose and Jennings to succeed. But I won't be investing any fantasy roster spots in either of them. I'm specifically calling out Jennings here because I've seen quite a few writers suggest he's a better bet than Rose, and that he'll take over the starting point guard spot before too long. Makes sense, I suppose, as Jennings doesn't have Rose's reputation for fragility. Problem is, Jennings ruptured his left Achilles' tendon in January 2015. The list of modern-era NBA players that have made a full recovery from that injury and produced numbers as good afterwards begins and ends with Dominique Wilkins. I'm particularly skeptical given the fact that Jennings is a drive-and-kick player, and not a particularly good shooter. If he can't recover all of his quickness, he'll be a lot less effective overall.

Ricky Rubio: Rubio isn't exactly known for his defense. New Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau… is. Don't be surprised if rookie Kris Dunn really pushes Rubio for minutes, or if Rubio is shopped heavily in advance of the trade deadline.

Greg Monroe: Another player that doesn't seem to fit his team's current philosophy. The Bucks have built a really interesting roster, with Giannis Antetokounmpo set to man the point and new additions Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic ready to fire away from long range. Monroe is a fine player, but he's more of a traditional back-to-the basket big that thrives in the halfcourt, while a rim-protector like John Henson would seem to make a lot more sense in nearly every Milwaukee lineup. And after last season, I think coach Jason Kidd knows that now.

Any Rockets bench player: For fantasy players, knowing NBA coaches' tendencies is as important as knowing the players. Gregg Popovich will make sure his top guys get plenty of rest. Scott Skiles will jerk rookies around. And Mike D'Antoni will lean very heavily on his starting five. That D'Antoni trend – combined with his philosophy on pace – means we should expect eye-popping numbers from his starting five. (James Harden would be my No. 1 overall pick this season, if I ever got the top pick in any draft ever. Which I won't. I'm not bitter.) It also means his bench players will be fighting for scraps. And his bench isn't terribly impressive anyway. Eric Gordon will get hurt. Corey Brewer is over 30 and coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. Old man Nene Hilario? No thanks.