This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Auburn (+3½) at Tennessee
This matchup is mostly even, though Auburn ultimately appears to be the more balanced and complete team. In SEC play, Auburn is second in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, with Tennessee trailing in both categories. The Volunteers rank third in defense, comparable to Auburn, but the Vols' offensive is lagging further behind at No. 5 in the conference. A closer look at the numbers reveals a bigger offensive concern for the Volunteers. Against SEC opponents, Tennessee shoots a conference-low 46 percent on two-point attempts. Making matters worse for the Vols, they're going against the toughest interior defense in the conference, as Auburn allows SEC opponents to make about 42 percent of two-point attempts, easily the lowest percentage allowed in the SEC. On the other side of the court, the story is nearly flipped. Auburn's offense shoots an SEC-high 54 percent on two-point attempts against SEC opponents. It's hard to go against the home team in a close matchup, but ultimately I think the team with more offensive prowess and more talent will walk away with the victory.
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame - Under 137½
Georgia Tech, by its nature, lends itself toward the under. The Yellow Jackets rank first in offensive efficiency in the ACC, by a wide margin, and yet their defense is well-above average, with the fifth-best defensive efficiency in conference play. Georgia Tech's offense doesn't draw an easy assignment, as Notre Dame ranks third in defensive efficiency in conference play. Notre Dame, a significant favorite, likely will try to control the tempo, which is key for the under because Mike Brey-coached teams have played at a slower pace every season over the last decade, and this year is no exception. Notre Dame plays at the fourth-slowest adjusted tempo in the ACC this season, per KenPom, so the pace of the game should play in our favor, assuming Notre Dame doesn't unexpectedly fall behind early. These two teams previously met Jan. 8, and the game was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation before Notre Dame won in overtime. Expect history to repeat itself, except this time without a tie after 40 minutes.
Wisconsin at Rutgers - Under 133
These teams tend to rely on defense to win games, a great recipe for winning an under bet. Wisconsin ranks third in defensive efficiency against Big Ten opponents, with Rutgers fourth. Both teams are also comparable offensively, as Wisconsin's offense ranks eighth in conference play and Rutgers is ninth. It's also important to note that this game is at Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights play at a higher level at home. Rutgers' defense allows just 62.5 points per game at home against Big Ten opponents, compared to 71 points per game in road conference battles. Wisconsin's defense is usually stout, with the Badgers' recent home loss to Rutgers the only time Wisconsin allowed more than 70 points in its last six games. All signs indicate that we've got a textbook Big Ten grinder on tap.
Stanford (-1) at California
Stanford is the better team, it doesn't have to travel far, and we're only giving a point. I'll take it. The Cardinal rank eighth in both offensive and defensive efficiency during Pac-12 play, better than California on both sides of the court. Additionally, Stanford has been one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking top 18 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, another match-up advantage. These teams faced each other Feb. 1, and Stanford outplayed Cal en route to a seven-point victory. California showed signs of life a couple weeks ago in a surprising victory at Oregon, but the Golden Bears have otherwise been extremely lackluster, winning just two of their last 14, with one of the wins coming against an Oregon State team that has just three wins all season. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but I'll take my chances on the better team.
