This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Most of the high-major conferences are taking the night off on Thursday, but nonetheless, we still have quite a few matchups to consider. Coming off back-to-back 3-0 sweeps, I present my predictions for three select games on Thursday evening.
Maryland 
at Ohio State 
At first glance, this matchup seems incredibly tight; however, a closer look reveals that one side may not be up to par.
Specifically, Ohio State's offense has performed below the league average since the conference season started. For the whole season, it appears fine, recording the 31st-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, but it actually ranks 11th in the Big Ten during league competition. It has a worse standing in multiple important categories, such as effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, and turnovers. The latter is perhaps most concerning for two reasons. First, the Buckeyes have the worst non-steal turnover percentage in the Big Ten, meaning that they suffer from self-inflicted mistakes more often than not. Second, Thursday's opponent thrives off turnovers.
In addition to boasting a strong defense, ranking 23rd in efficiency and fourth in the Big Ten, Maryland is also exceptional at causing turnovers. The Terrapins have the 30th-highest turnover percentage among all D-1 teams, and this strength has carried over against conference competition, logging the fourth-highest mark among Big Ten teams. The Buckeyes mustered just 59 points when they traveled to College Park back in early December, and it's easy to see why when comparing the matchup at this end of the court.
When playing in the other direction, we again have a tight matchup, though neither side appears to have a significant edge in most categories. During conference play, Maryland has the fifth-highest offensive rating, with Ohio State's defense next to it with the sixth-best rating. We have a similarly slight difference in effective field goal percentage and rebounding. In other categories, Maryland's offense edges Ohio State's defense by a few slots in turnover percentage and free-throw attempts.
Considering both teams are strong on defense, I like our odds of seeing a low final score. Ohio State prefers playing at a slow tempo compared to other Big Ten Teams, ranking 14th during conference play. The Terrapins prefer playing quicker when they have the ball, but their defense is elite at slowing down opposing teams. They rank 339th in average defensive possession length and last among Big Ten teams. For these reasons, I'm taking the under in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 146.5
Saint Mary's at San Francisco 
On paper, it's hard to pick against Saint Mary's. Since the conference season started, the Gaels have had the highest defensive efficiency rating and the second-highest offensive rating among WCC teams.
It won't be easy, but the home team appears equipped to keep the game close. The Dons are among the most well-rounded scoring teams in the WCC, ranking fifth or better in many categories, including efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. They've also improved their turnover numbers, sixth in the league, which were below the D-1 average coming into the conference season. Saint Mary's defense is proving to be exceedingly difficult to crack, so the fact that San Francisco has played well across the board over the past month is encouraging.
The Dons also feature a respectable defense, again ranking fifth in efficiency among WCC teams. They're even better in other vital areas, such as effective field goal percentage, third, turnovers, fourth, and three-point defense, holding conference opponents to a league-best 26 percent from beyond the arc. It's also important to note that San Francisco has held its own on the defensive glass, recording the sixth-highest rebounding percentage in the league. This is a critical skill in this matchup because Saint Mary's is one of the top teams in the nation at offensive rebounding, boasting the second-highest percentage in all D-1. Even still, the Dons did a good job in this area when these two teams clashed at Saint Mary's in late January when San Francisco held the Gaels to just five offensive rebounds, the fewest they've had in any conference game.
Matchup notes aside, the Dons remain undefeated in their home arena at the Sobrato Center in San Francisco. This unbeaten mark includes resume-building victories over Boise State, Santa Clara, and Oregon State, illustrating that the Dons have been challenged along the way. Their only "home" loss was a four-point deficit when they hosted Memphis from the Chase Center in late November. Memphis has assembled an incredibly impressive resume, so there's no shame in this outcome. At the same time, Saint Mary's only has three losses, and two of them came away from home. In a recent road trip to Pullman, the Gaels were on the ropes in the second half, trailing by nine points to Washington State. Saint Mary's fought back and took the lead for good late in the game, surviving with a five-point margin.
Winning 11 consecutive games is a difficult feat, and doing so will require winning the 11th game at the Sobrato Center, where the Dons remain undefeated. The Gaels will likely find a way to win, but I'm betting the Dons won't make it easy. I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Francisco +6
Washington State 
at Oregon State 
The Cougars are reeling, dropping four straight games. The losing streak isn't pretty, but it's worth noting that three of the losses came to three of the top four teams in the conference. Either way, Washington State has a challenging task in trying to end its streak on Thursday.
The Beavers, meanwhile, have won six of 10 conference games using a strong offensive attack. Oregon State has scored at least 80 points in its last six home games, a streak that includes wins over opponents such as Gonzaga and Santa Clara.
When Washington State has the ball on Thursday, it will face an Oregon State defense that has had trouble getting stops throughout the year. The Beavers rank 111th in defensive efficiency, and they've played at a below-average level against league competition, ranking eighth among the 11 WCC teams. They similarly rank below average in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and free-throw attempts, leaving them vulnerable in multiple areas. In contrast, the Cougars have performed at an above-average level offensively against WCC foes, ranking sixth in efficiency and third in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. It's also worth noting that the Cougars are exceptional at inside scoring, making 59 percent of two-point attempts, the seventh-highest mark in the nation. The Beavers are allowing opponents to make 50 percent of shots inside the arc, 162nd among D-1 teams.
When Oregon State has the ball, it will see a similar advantage over its opposing defense. As mentioned above, the Beavers are proving to be highly effective at scoring, logging the third-highest offensive rating in the WCC during the conference season. They also lead the conference in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage, making 59 percent against WCC foes. The latter is particularly noteworthy, as Washington State is vulnerable in the paint, allowing 55 percent to conference opponents, the third-worst allowed in the WCC. Overall, the Cougars haven't been great defensively. They rank 135th in efficiency for the season, with massive weaknesses on the defensive glass, 290th, and interior defense, 225th in two-point FG percent allowed.
It's tempting to take the home team in this one, but ultimately, I'd rather not fade a desperate Washington State team. The Cougars have proven capable of winning challenging games, earning victories at Nevada and Boise State earlier in the season. Given that both offensive teams appear to have a noticeable edge over their defensive counterparts, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm going with the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 146.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Maryland at Ohio State - Under 146.5
- San Francisco +6
- Washington State at Oregon State - Over 146.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
