This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Marshall at UNC Greensboro
It's hard to get more balanced than Marshall this season. The Thundering Herd rank No. 93 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 90 in defensive efficiency, a solid combo that has propelled Marshall to a 9-1 record, with its only blemish being a one-point loss at Queens in the opening game of the season. Since then, Marshall has been firing on all cylinders. During its nine-game winning streak, Marshall has defeated every opponent by at least nine points. When looking at Marshall's team composition, it makes sense why this team has had consistent success. The Thundering Herd are the 10th most experienced team in the country, per KenPom, and also ranks high in roster continuity (No. 96) and average height (No. 56). Furthermore, Marshall plays with an extremely short bench, ranking No. 353 in bench minutes, allowing the starters maximum playing time, thus resulting in less variance that one might see on a team that plays with a long bench.
UNC Greensboro, on the other hand, is not balanced at all. The Spartans rank No. 89 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with its offense at the negative end of the spectrum. In its last five games, UNC Greensboro has only scored more than 60 points one time, and that 65-point performance came against Elon, a team that is 0-8 against D1 competition this season. Overall, UNC Greensboro is below the D1 average in most offensive categories, so there's not much reason to think its offensive will improve in Tuesday's game.
It's possible the Spartans' defense will keep them in the game, but it's hard to imagine their offense scoring enough points to keep pace with a Thundering Herd team that has scored more than 80 points in eight of 10 games this season. To better put this into perspective, UNC Greensboro has yet to score 80 points against any D1 opponent this season. Given a short line to work with, I'll take the team with the substantially better offense.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marshall -3.5
Memphis at 
Alabama
The Crimson Tide are coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season, going on the road and giving Houston its first loss of the season. Unfortunately for Alabama, they don't have much time to revel in the accomplishment as now they must host a feisty Memphis team.
The Tigers are also riding high after a big win, as they decisively defeated Auburn in Atlanta this past Saturday. Alabama and Auburn are very comparable on defense, among the best defensively, with Auburn ranking a couple of ticks higher in adjusted defensive efficiency. Memphis dropped 82 points on Auburn, so there's no reason to think Memphis won't be able to outscore Alabama in Tuesday's game. In fact, Memphis' offense has been thoroughly tested so far this season, with the team having the 29th most difficult schedule based on the defensive efficiency of all opponents faced. The Tigers are the 12th-most experienced team in the country, per KenPom, so it's easy to see how a talented veteran group of players can find ways to score on a tough defense.
While Memphis' offense has done its job so far this season, its defense is actually the focal point of the team. Memphis ranks No. 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, essentially in the same ballpark as Alabama, so the Tigers are more than capable of holding down the Crimson Tide. When looking at these teams side-by-side, Memphis has an advantage in a couple of key areas. The Tigers are causing defensive turnovers at an impressive rate, ranking No. 63 in that category, which will come in handy against Alabama because the Crimson Tide have one major weakness on offense and that's giving the ball away. Alabama ranks No. 295 in offensive turnover rate, so it's a good bet that Memphis will win the turnover battle in this one. Secondly, Alabama is also extremely prone to having its shots blocked, ranking No. 348 in offensive shot block rate. This is bad news heading into a game against Memphis, as the Tigers are blocking shots at the 34th-highest rate in the country. On paper, Alabama's offense only has two significant weaknesses, and they both play straight into the hands of Memphis' defense.
Overall, both of these teams are coming off notable victories and playing great basketball. Given the defensive advantages that Memphis holds over Alabama's offense, this matchup will likely be closer than the overall stats indicate. I'll take the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Memphis +6.5
Cal Poly at 
Washington
The Huskies enter today's game sporting a 7-3 record, mostly thanks to its stout defense. Washington ranks No. 53 in adjusted defensive efficiency and, excluding Gonzaga, held its two best offensive opponents, Colorado and Saint Mary's, to under 65 points in its two best victories of the season. On the offensive end, the Huskies have scored just enough points to win seven games but have struggled with consistency. On December 1, Washington scored only 65 points against Oregon State, the worst defensive team in the Pac-12 by a mile, and then scored just 60 points in its most recent game against Gonzaga.
Similarly, Cal Poly also relies on its defense to win games. The Mustangs are riding a four-game winning streak while holding each of its last three opponents to under 60 points. Cal Poly will need a strong defensive performance in order to pull off the upset because its offense hasn't had any luck against superior defensive teams. Washington's defense represents Cal Poly's toughest challenge on offense since it faced Stanford on Nov. 18, a game in which Cal Poly scored just 43 points. A week earlier, Cal Poly scored just 48 points against San Francisco. The Mustangs have scored at least 60 points in every game since playing Stanford, but it's also worth noting that Cal Poly has had a very easy schedule since then.
Based on the strengths and weaknesses of each team, it appears we have a defensive battle on tap. To add fuel to the defensive fire, Cal Poly prefers playing at a much slower pace and Washington's zone defense will only exacerbate that, leading to fewer overall possessions in this contest.
If Cal Poly's offense wasn't so questionable, taking the points would normally be my play, but given the Mustangs' offensive liability, a low total seems like the safer bet. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 127
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Marshall -3.5
- Memphis +6.5
- Under 127
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