This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The college basketball betting board picks up significantly Wednesday, and Steve Peralta is dialed in on three more plays for this evening's slate of action.
UM-Kansas City at 
Louisiana State
LSU has a few question marks entering the new season, but don't let that stop you from fading UMKC. The Roos are coming off a season-opening loss at home to Lincoln University, a Division II team, so it's reasonable to wonder how much further this team will slide down KenPom's rankings. UMKC's roster consists of 14 new players along with a new coach Marvin Menzies, so it remains to be seen if this team is actually better than it showed Monday when it lost 59-56 on its home court to a D2 school.
LSU is also welcoming a new coach, Matt McMahon, but, unlike the Roos, the Tigers' roster should be in fine shape considering McMahon was able to rebuild a significant portion of it. One of the key players joining the Tigers is reigning Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year K.J. Williams, who followed McMahon to LSU along with three other former Murray State players. McMahon also has four returning LSU players back on the team.
All in all, LSU is by far the more talented and deeper team. The Tigers have plenty of three-point shooters to help build a big lead and then bury UMKC late. KenPom currently has UMKC ranked at No. 295 in the country with its adjusted efficiency rating, projecting a 23-point loss in this game. Based on the results of UMKC's opening night loss, I'm betting UMKC will keep sliding. If UMKC can barely score 56 points at home against a D2 team, there's no telling how lopsided this matchup will get.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tigers -22
Bellarmine at 
Louisville
One must never count out the Bellarmine Knights. Although they lost some key players from last year's team, the Knights have made a habit of overcoming doubts and far exceeding expectations. The trend started just two years ago, when Bellarmine made the jump to Division I, and the team finished second in the ASUN regular season standings and won 10 consecutive conference games at one point. Last season, Bellarmine caught some attention when it won its conference tournament but didn't receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament due to an NCAA rule requiring a four-year transitional period to D1, making the Knights ineligible for postseason play. Additionally, Bellarmine doesn't back down from playing anybody. Last year, Bellarmine played the fourth toughest non-conference schedule in the country, including taking on three teams that held the No. 1 ranking at some point in the season. Last year they took on UCLA and had a worthy showing, losing just 75-62, which is notable because last year's UCLA team was exponentially better than this year's Louisville team.
The Cardinals finished last season in a tailspin, losing 15 of their last 18 games. Louisville then hired Kenny Payne as its new head coach, but the roster isn't in great shape and nobody expects the rebuild to happen quickly.
This is especially true after Louisville lost one of its exhibition games to Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, 57-47. The loss gave Louisville its first loss in exhibition play in nearly 22 years, snapping a 39-game winning streak in such games (per SI.com).
Although the game was only an exhibition on paper, it's hard to imagine Louisville covering a double-digit spread against any college team after that kind of performance. Bellarmine, on the other hand, has consistently demonstrated its ability to defy expectations, and I'm betting on them doing that once again, especially against a dubious Louisville team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Knights +9.5
South Dakota St. at 
Boise State
This is purely a bet on the Jackrabbits' offensive attack. They're not going to play much defense, but they have the shooters and scorers capable of keeping the game close. South Dakota State finished last season with the 14th most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom, and with many key players returning, it's reasonable to expect the scoring to continue.
South Dakota State lost a notable player in Baylor Scheierman via the transfer portal, but they nonetheless still have several sharpshooters in Zeke Mayo, Alex Arians, Charlie Easle, and Matt Mims. The four of them each made over 40 percent of three-point field goal attempts on over 350 total shots combined last season.
On the other sideline, the Broncos dealt with minor roster turnover, although they also returned Marcus Shaver Jr. and Tyson Degenhart, both key players on last year's team. Boise State made a run to the NCAA tournament last season, relying mostly on its defense to win games down the stretch. The Broncos finished last year ranked No. 20 in defensive efficiency, but KenPom now has them down to No. 71 entering their first game of the new season.
Without an elite defense like last year, Boise State might have trouble pulling away from a strong offensive team like South Dakota State. I'll take the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Jackrabbits +6
Wednesday Night College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday night:
- LSU Tigers -22
- Bellarmine Knights +9.5
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits +6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
