This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
5 Houston Cougars (-4.5) (-110) vs 4 Illinois Fighting Illini
11:10 am ET @ Pittsburgh, PA
Who do you trust when a higher-seeded team is favored over a lower seed? The clowns on the Tournament Committee, or the guys responsible for the big shiny buildings in the desert? It certainly seems the books have realized just how under-seeded the Cougars are and the money is following. Illinois' guards have been erratic all year and the Houston pressure will cause them issues. The one fear I have with Houston as a favorite in the tournament is free throw shooting. The Cougs are 332nd in the country from the stripe at just 66.6 percent on the year. The back door could be open, but I think Houston will do enough to keep it shut.
2 Villanova Wildcats (-5) (-115) vs 7 Ohio St. Buckeyes
2:40 pm ET @ Pittsburgh, PA
There is just something about this Ohio State squad that I just can't trust. I can't shake their finish to the conference season, and while they disposed of Loyola Chicago handily, that was certainly not a vintage Loyola team from years past. Meanwhile, Nova keeps rolling along behind Justin Moore and Colin Gillespie. Since their win over Duke in November, OSU has not beat a KenPom top-20 team. As mentioned in my Friday writing, Big East teams are now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 NCAA Tournament games. Nova adds another to the win column after this one.
11 Iowa St. Cyclones vs 3 Wisconsin Badgers (UNDER 125.5) (-110)
6:10 pm ET @ Milwaukee, WI
Why? Why are we subjected to this game that features teams prone to having offensive issues? ISU is 10th in defensive efficiency and are battle-tested coming out of the Big 12. However, the Clones have issues scoring with team totals of 47, 44, 41, 36, and 41 on the season. While much more balanced than ISU, Wisconsin hasn't exactly lit the nets on fire down the stretch. And, in true Greg Gard form, their pace has slowed to a crawl in March, as evident by a 61-possession game in their first round win over Colgate. This has all the makings of an ugly rock fight, so if we must watch, we might as well make some money on the ugliness.
6 Texas Longhorns vs 3 Purdue Boilermakers (UNDER 134.5) (-110)
8:40 pm ET @ Milwaukee, WI
Sorry, Milwaukee, but this looks like another ugly game in your city. Chris Beard is a March Master and will have a plan for the big bodies of Purdue. More than likely, it includes pulling Zach Edey and Trevion Williams away from the basket to allow Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen to slash and score. The glaring weakness for Purdue is their perimeter defense, but Texas isn't really a team that can take advantage of that. On the other side of the ball, I expect Beard to scheme ways to swarm Jaden Ivey with his athletes and make life miserable for the Purdue star. With KenPom's projection of 63 possessions, I expect this game to be played in the low-mid 60s, allowing us to slide under this total.
CBB Results To Date
Friday Games: 3-0-1/+3 units
Overall: 3-0-1/+3 units
