This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Betting: Finding The Edge, Conference Championship Weekend
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With only Championship Week and Bowl season on the horizon, the window to raise our percentages is closing. The primary problem with unweighted betting is that there isn't a chance to catch up, profit-wise. Still, there isn't anyone else in the industry that I know of who dares to track every FBS bet with transparency, and with any luck, we'll break even with our Top 25 and Overall Result rating by the time we get to January.
Week 13 Results (32-28-2) 51.5%
Week 13 Featured Bets (2-3-0) 40%
Week 13 Top 25 Results (8-9-2) 47.3%
Overall Top 25 Results (128-107-4) 53.5%
Overall Featured Bet Results (33-35-0) 48.5%
OVERALL RESULTS: (392-393-7) 49.4%
UTSA -8.5, USC -2.5, OHIO +3, TCU -1.5, TROY -8. UGA -17.5, BSU -3, TUL -4, CLEM -7.5, MICH -16.5
Since there are so few games to cover, I am going to pick only my three favorite spots from the wagers above.
Georgia -17.5 vs. LSU (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Bulldogs could lose this game and still be in the CFP, so pride is the only thing on the line. Georgia's defense is the reason why this could be a blowout. The Bulldogs rank second in the nation in rush defense, and that's where LSU butters its bread. A tepid run game has been the Achilles heel in all of LSU's losses, and the only thing the Bulldogs need to account for beyond stopping the run is containing Jayden Daniels. The defense is going to dare Daniels to beat them with his arm, but they'll have to limit his mobility out of the pocket.
USC -2.5 vs. Utah (DraftKings Sportsbook)
All of Caleb Williams' targets are healthy, and he'll need them. I doubt the Trojans will get a lot accomplished on the ground against one of the nation's best run defenses, so Williams will need a Heisman-worthy night through the air. Were it not for a botched call that went Utah's way, it would be Utah trying to avenge a loss and not the other way around. USC is out of the playoff if they lose, and Utah is playing for a way out of the Holiday Bowl. There's really no comparison in offensive firepower, and if you break down the last time these two teams faced each other, the tandem of Cameron Rising and Dalton Kincaid was the only thing that kept the game competitive. USC will be able to find a solution for Kincaid this time around, and if Cameron Rising has to depend on other targets, he may have a frustrating night. The loss of Tavion Thomas doesn't help the run game, and although they have capable fill-ins for his production, it just seems like the Utes will be outclassed on offense in this rematch.
TCU -1.5 vs. Kansas State (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I've learned my lesson when it comes to fading the Horned Frogs. I think the Cinderella story will continue, thus solidifying TCU's place in the CFP. The key to a TCU win is stopping the run, and that will be tough to do against Deuce Vaughn. TCU won this game in the regular season, and although KSU's quarterback situation was a mess leading into that game, they ran the ball well and still lost. You can discount all of the intangibles around TCU and what remains is a confident offense led by Max Duggan, who is deserving of a seat at the Heisman ceremony. Here's an interesting stat - Kansas State is 1-3 when they allow 140 or more yards rushing, and the Horned Frogs average 200 yards per game. TCU's ability to establish the run will make Dugaan's job even easier, and I see TCU pulling away in the second half.