College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 8

CHRIS' PICKS

I suffered my first losing week since Week 1 (I think), and it took a lethargic effort from VT and an 11-0 outscoring by FIU over MTSU to set me back. Time to get back into the win column.

Missouri –10 vs. Memphis

This opened at –7, which I liked a lot more. Memphis' four wins came against teams ranked no higher than 126th in Sagarin ratings. Missouri ranks 41st. Memphis also fell to Tulane and Navy, two teams that have unimpressive resumes otherwise. When Missouri wins, it wins big, with eight of its last 10 wins coming by an average of 33.7 points. Missouri ranks 25th against the rush, allowing only 120.2 yards per game. Memphis played the game of its season against UCF last week, only to see the lead slip away. Memphis won't be able to get up for this contest, and Missouri will shut down the rushing attack and pull away on the arm of Drew Lock.

Kentucky –11.5 vs. Vanderbilt

UK ranks 26th in rushing, putting up 223.5 yards per game, with just South Carolina and Texas A&M holding it below that mark. The Wildcats should pound the ball with Benny Snell against Vanderbilt's 96th-ranked rush defense that allows 183.3 yards per game, 5.3 YPC to Power 5 opponents and saw two backs top 100 yards against it last week. Kentucky also ranks fourth in scoring defense, allowing 13.8 points a game. The Wildcats allowed 20 points only twice, three times holding opponents to 10 points or less. Kentucky enjoyed a week off while Vandy will now have to overcome a road trip after being outscored 24-6 in the second half by Florida, resulting in a 10-point defeat. That's a tall ask.

Cincinnati +3 at Temple

Cincinnati's 6-0 start is based in a resurgent defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed (13.7), 24th against the rush (120.0 YPG) and eighth against the pass (154.3 YPG). That defense has allowed Cincy to play conservative offensively and pound the rock, averaging 255.5 yards per game on the ground (10th nationally) while scoring 22 rushing scores (3rd nationally). That's going to be a problem for an Owls defense that allowed 208 yards to Tulsa, 275 to Boston College and 270 to Navy. Temple's four wins have come over teams with a combined 9-15 record, four wins of which belong to Maryland.

Arkansas –7 vs. Tulsa

Another favorite I liked a lot more when the line opened at 3.5. Arkansas is starting to show a pulse offensively, scoring 33 and 31 points in the last two games against Alabama and Ole Miss. Neither team owns a win over an FBS opponent, but this is likely the Razorbacks last chance at accomplishing that with only conference opponents following Saturday. Tulsa is a one-dimensional offense that can't pass, and while Arkansas has shown vulnerability in rush defense, it's held four of seven opponents to less than four yards per carry and has allowed only three rushing scores the last four weeks.

Florida International –23.5 vs. Rice

Hopefully this cover is as simple as it looks. Rice has totaled three points in its last two games and is likely to be without quarterback Shawn Stankavage due to a foot injury. The Owls rank 121st in scoring defense, allowing 39.1 ppg, and 123rd in scoring offense at 19.4 ppg. That alone puts us on the brink, and the Golden Panthers offense ranks 32nd in scoring and hung 63 on an equally bad defense in Massachusetts earlier in the year.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 19-15-1


GREG'S PICKS

Unfortunately, I couldn't pull out a third win last week, due to the line I used, but that's the breaks of posting this article a couple days before the weekend. The line in question was the Ole Miss over, which was at 70.5 when I made my pick last week, but by gametime, the line had dropped to 66 in some places, due to weather concerns. My point is, if you were actually playing that game and you put in your bet on gameday, you got paid (final score 37-33). If you played it early, then you probably lost. It goes both ways however. That's why we base our wins and losses on the lines from this article, no matter how they move. A 2-3 week isn't the end of the world, I'm still comfortably above .500 for the season and ready to bounce-back this week. 



Michigan State +7 vs. Michigan



Normally I'd shy away from a team that is coming off a huge road win, but the Spartans needed that win for their confidence after dropping a home game to Northwestern the week prior. Michigan has been a force at home this season, but it has struggled on the road. MSU has a lot going for it in this game, and I haven't even mentioned the chip on its shoulder that got a little bigger by being listed as a touchdown underdog at home in this game.


Over 67 Ohio State at Purdue



I'm trying not to overreact to the Ohio State game last week as I watched every second of it, but there's no denying that the Buckeyes have some major issues on defense. When I first saw this line, I wanted to take Purdue, but getting less than two touchdowns against that offense is a little scary. As such, I'll just take the over as nobody is slowing the OSU offense and Purdue's offense has been very efficient since David Blough took over in Week 2, averaging almost 40 points per game in the four games since. 



Alabama -29.5 at Tennessee

The Vols are certainly better than we thought they were early in the season and they are coming off a huge road win at Auburn last week, but this will be the third consecutive week that they are facing an SEC power and once the adrenaline wears off, they'll be toast. The formula for covering against the Tide is to bring a high-scoring offense, because no one is slowing the Tide's offense, but that's something the Vols just don't have. Alabama seems to have addressed its defensive issues as well, as the Tide held the high-powered Missouri Tigers to just 10 points last week. In other words, it's all coming together.

UCLA -8 vs Arizona



Don't look now, but the Bruins have started to figure it out. What looked like a lost season just a couple weeks ago, now looks like the building blocks for a solid future. The Bruins played Washington tight two weeks ago at home and then they went on the road last week and waxed Cal. Arizona, meanwhile, seems to be playing out the string. Then again, it seems like the Cats have been playing out the string all season. The Bruins finally get to have some fun in front of the home crowd this week.

Nebraska -3.5 vs Minnesota

This is a bad spot for the Gophers mentally. To their credit, the Gophers played a heck of a game last week and hung with the Buckeyes nearly all game, but they are a young and inconsistent team and getting another high-quality effort out of them again this week seems unlikely. Nebraska lost another heart breaker last week and the Huskers enter without a win to their credit. This is a great spot for the Huskers as they've shown a lot of improvement over the past few weeks, but they have nothing to show for it. The Huskers will be amped up for this game and the young Gophers will not be able to match their intensity.

Last Week: 2-3, Season: 20-15