This article is part of our FanDuel College Football series.
As we move along to Week 7, we start to see the list of injuries get longer. I have even excluded some of the players who have been sidelined for a while and don't seem to have a return date or are out for the season, considering they are no longer relevant to the upcoming slate. The top two scoring teams this week are expected to be Ole Miss (42.25) and Tennessee (39.75), combining for an over-under line that sits at 82.0. In comparison, next on the list is Oklahoma-TCU to just 63.5 points. Despite the massive number, the line for the game is just 2.5 points in favor of the Rebels, suggesting the game should be close enough to keep the starters in throughout the contest. After Tennessee, Cincinnati (39.0), Oklahoma (38.5), Alabama (37.5), Florida (35.5) and North Carolina (35.25) round out the items expected to cross the 35-point threshold. Georgia is the heaviest favorite at -22.0, with Cincinnati (-21.5), Oklahoma (-13.5) and Iowa (-11.5) closing out the double-digit favorites this week.
Potential Weather Impact:
Florida at LSU : Expected windy conditions north of 16 mph throughout and more than 17 mph in the first half.
Texas A&M at Missouri : Not quite as windy but still wind nearing 14 mph for half of the game and surpassing 12 mph throughout.
Oklahoma State at Texas Longhorns : Another game with wind sitting around 14 mph throughout the contest.
Central Florida at Cincinnati : Wind opens around 13 mph and should sit near 14 mph for final three quarters.
Auburn at Arkansas Razorbacks : Winds starting around 10.3 mph and jumping to 12.8 mph in second half.
Miami at North Carolina Tar Heels : 50-50 chance of rain to open the game, with winds starting around 11.5 mph and gradually declining to below 10 for the fourth quarter.
Kentucky at Georgia : Wind opening around 15 mph and sitting around 14 mph the next two quarters before dropping to around 11.5 for the final quarter.
Purdue at Iowa : Wind starts tops 15 mph in first half and declines some in the second half.
BYU at Baylor Bears : Wind sits double digits in the first half but drops below that in the second.
NC State Wolfpack at Boston College : 50-50 chance for rain at kickoff that only increases as the game goes on. Expected rain throughout the second half that figures to impact passing games.
Max Duggan, TCU - Considered questionable for Saturday's game.
Baylor Romney, BYU - Returned to practice this week following a head injury.
JT Daniels, Georgia - Has been on a pitch count in practice and hasn't done a ton. Seems a bit doubtful. Georgia has been notably coy about the quarterback position leading up to games.
D'Eriq King, Miami - Undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.
Zach Evans, TCU - Considered questionable for Saturday.
Malik Davis, Florida - Expected to play Saturday after missing last week.
Jerrion Ealy, Ole Miss - Sat last week due to concussion and his status for Saturday is unclear. Coach Lane Kiffin hopes to have him back. Henry Parrish and Snoop Conner should see more work again if he sits.
Isaiah Bowser, UCF - Hopes to return at some point this season but doesn't seem likely to come Saturday versus Cincinnati.
Caleb Hood, North Carolina - Was believed to have a chance to return last week before sitting out. His status for this week remains unclear.
Zander Horvath, Purdue - Likely out again this week.
Kenny McIntosh, Georgia - Missed last week with a minor hamstring issue and his status for this week is uncertain.
LD Brown, Oklahoma State - will miss out again Saturday.
Armoni Goodwin, LSU - Wasn't present at practice Wednesday.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee - Should return against Ole Miss.
Dezmon Jackson, Oklahoma State - Not on the depth chart again this week so might be headed for another DNP.
Kayshon Boutte, LSU - Will miss the rest of the 2021 season.
Jaylon Robinson, UCF - Not expected back soon.
Quentin Johnston, TCU - Labeled questionable for Saturday.
Jermaine Burton, Georgia - Should be available for Saturday's game against Kentucky.
Caleb Chapman, Texas A&M - Has been day-to-day and status is unclear for this week.
JD Spielman, TCU - Sat out last week and his status for Saturday hasn't been clarified.
Josh Ali, Kentucky - Not expected to play against Georgia this week.
Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia - Will be available this week versus Kentucky.
Payne Durham, Purdue - Expected to return against Iowa.
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Week 7 Plays
Matt Corral, Ole Miss ($12,000) at Tennessee
Corral is facing a Tennessee defense surrendering just 13.9 points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but that doesn't take into account the fact that the Vols have faced very few passing attacks of this caliber. Technically, speaking, the closest would be Pittsburgh, which ranks in the top five nationally in passing at this point. That being said, Pitt's best competition outside of the Vols has been a 3-3 Georgia Tech team. The Rebels operate on another level, averaging 7.1 yards per play (fourth nationally) and 76.5 plays per game (23rd nationally), suggesting the Rebels strike quickly and often. Even at $12,000, Corral has plenty of upside displayed in his 56.2-point showing versus Tulane and the 42.88 he posted last week versus Arkansas.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee ($11,000) vs. Ole Miss
Hooker is one of my favorite plays on the slate Saturday. Not only will he be at the head of this shootout for Tennessee, but his matchup grades out extremely favorably. In the two games Ole Miss has faced mobile quarterbacks, the Rebels have surrendered a total of five rushing scores and the quarterbacks have combined to average 40.94 FD points. Hooker certainly fits the bill in that regard running for 60-plus yards and a score in three of the last four games. He should top 30 points again Saturday and could have a shot at reaching into the 40s like quarterback KJ Jefferson did last week for Arkansas.
Emory Jones, Florida ($10,100) at LSU
Jones heads to Baton Rouge to take on an LSU team that is licking its wounds after a 42-21 drubbing at the hands of Kentucky last week. Unfortunately, Florida is not the kind of team you want to face looking for a bounceback win. The other problem that LSU faces is that Jones is the perfect fit for what has given them fits the last couple of weeks in the dual-threat quarterback. Opposing quarterbacks have run for a combined 149 yards and three scores over the last two games. That's exactly the threat Jones provides on the ground, amassing 478 rushing yards and a pair of scores through six games. Jones also has a reasonably safe floor, finishing with 20-plus points in four of the six games. He's also posted two of his best three showings of the season in the last three weeks and won't have to worry about Derek Stingley, LSU's top cornerback, who is sidelined indefinitely. This should be set up well for Jones to continue on his recent trend of success.
GPP Dart: Zach Calzada, Texas A&M ($7,700) at Missouri
A week ago, I wouldn't touch Calzada with a 10-foot pole. Things have changed following an eye-opening effort versus Alabama last week, and Calzada's salary tag sits at a spot where there is still plenty of value to be had. He now has two 20-plus point efforts under his belt under center and may have another one on the way Saturday, facing Missouri defense that has allowed a combined 530 passing yards and five passing scores over the last two games. That shapes up well for upside here from Calzada, though he's also displayed a floor far below, finishing with 5.24 points at Arkansas and 12.22 on the road at Colorado. This is another road clash, so there is plenty of risk to dropping this far down in the quarterback ranks.
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati ($9,300) vs. UCF
Ford heads a Bearcats running attack that has a good matchup disguised as a mediocre one at this point. The Knights have allowed more than 20 points to opposing running backs just once all season. However, the current UCF squad is just a shell of its former self, especially on the offensive side of the ball. It will likely be tough for UCF to score this week given how banged up the offense is, and the Bearcats have shown they can score in bunches. The scoring was the only thing keeping Navy and East Carolina backs from racking up a ton of points the last couple weeks, with those two running back groups combining for 277 rushing yards in the last two contests. Ford should handle the bulk of the work for a Bearcats team sporting an expected score of 39.0 to rank near the top and game flow will certainly trend toward a ground-heavy second half. The Bearcats also need to make a statement each and every week and UCF's name power will likely be put to good use in this one.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M ($8,900) at Missouri
Spiller is another player who fits the game flow scenario extremely well, though his matchup also bests any other on the slate. Missouri allows slate-worst marks across the board to opposing offenses, giving up 6.1 rushing yards per attempt and 286.8 rushing yards and 3.0 rushing scores per game. Spiller is the clear favorite to head the ground game, handling 40-plus percent of the carries in all but one game and 50-plus percent in each of the last three. That bodes well facing this defense in a game that favors the Aggies to win by nine points.
Jabari Small, Tennessee ($6,700) vs. Ole Miss
Small might go a bit overlooked on this slate because he hasn't done much since the opener against Bowling Green. Let me put a little context to that, however. Small took the first three carries for 38 against Missouri before leaving the contest with an injury. While he was reportedly available last week, it doesn't appear he was exactly completely healthy either and the staff elected to keep him on the sidelines. This time around, Tiyon Evans (undisclosed) is a bit banged up and could have a chance to be out of commission. Even if Evans does suit up, Small should be involved and arrives at enough of a discount to be worth considering. Should Evans sit, this is a situation where I'm locking Small into the majority of my lineups given the amount of scoring and yardage headed our way in this game.
GPP Dart: Jaylan Knighton, Miami ($5,000) at North Carolina
This game features the third-highest over-under on the slate and Knighton may be one of the perfect players to get involved with. Not only did he take the first few handoffs of the game last week, but Knighton also finished with one more than Cam'Ron Harris in his first action of the season. Opposing teams are averaging more than four yards per carry against the Tar Heels and running backs have gone for more than 125 rushing yards in each of the last three games. Knighton does have plenty of risk sharing the backfield for a team that is more than a touchdown underdog, but I would anticipate the Hurricanes leaning on the ground game as much as possible to take some of the pressure off of freshman quarterback Tyler Van Dyke in his first career road start.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss ($9,500) at Tennessee
Drummond is the clear lead dog in the passing attack with Jonathan Mingo sidelined by a broken foot. While that resulted in just two targets last week, you can bet there will be a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands more often this week against a Tennessee defense that has given up 30-plus points in three of four games versus power-five opponents and 40-plus in two of them. Ole Miss can certainly match or exceed the passing outputs of almost anyone in the nation when called for and that could be the case this week in a shootout. Drummond's target share isn't quite as high as some of the others near the top of this list, but he doesn't need to be in an offense that puts up points at a high rate and gains big chunks on pass plays.
Jameson Williams, Alabama ($9,300) at Mississippi State
Williams has one of the better matchups on the slate to pick up some big points Saturday, facing a Mississippi State defense that has surrendered eight passing touchdowns to wide receivers alone, tied for the slate-high mark despite playing one fewer game than most of the other teams on the list. Williams is the most consistent scoring threat in the Crimson Tide receiving corps, accounting for more than double any other receiver on the year. He's also at a reasonable rate and Alabama will likely come out with the pedal to the metal after dropping a tough one at Texas A&M a week ago.
Velus Jones, Tennessee ($8,200) vs Ole Miss
While Jones' numbers for the season aren't particularly astonishing, he has established a connection with Hendon Hooker over the last two weeks to the tune of 35.7 percent target share, good for fifth-highest on the slate. He's turned those into his best two outings of the season, racking up a combined 13 catches for 182 yards and two scores. That bodes well going into this high-scoring matchup, and his salary still sits in a highly affordable range that should be fairly easy to fit into a lineup, even with some of the pricier options at the quarterback position. The matchup is far from a drag either. In the three games versus power-five opponents, Ole Miss' defense has yielded an average of 39.02 points per game to opposing wideouts, including 57.9 last week versus Arkansas. This all lines up well for another big outing from Jones.
Marvin Mims, Oklahoma ($7,500) vs TCU
Mims finally broke out last week against Texas in the Red River Rivalry and was rewarded with a salary bump of $1,000. That isn't enough to scare me off of him this week. The most encouraging sign is that Mims held an apparent connection with Caleb Williams versus the Longhorns, with four of his five grabs coming via passes tossed by Williams. There is not a confirmed signal-caller yet for this game, but practice reps earlier in the week seemed to suggest Willims is the guy over Spencer Rattler. If that's the case, we could see a good amount more passes headed the way of Mims against a TCU secondary that has had it's share of issues in coverage this season.
GPP Dart: Mike Harley, Miami ($6,900) at North Carolina
Harley is coming off of his best week of the season in Jack Van Dyke's first start. Match that with the Hurricanes likely trailing versus a Tar Heels defense that has struggled against the pass this season and it could be a chance for Harley to get back on track. He had a couple of games near or above 30 FD points last season, so there is certainly a chance for explosion and at lest a pretty decent chance of him returning the necessary value to cover the $6,900 salary in general.
Extreme GPP Dart, Jahleel Billingsley, Alabama ($5,700) at Mississippi State
This is another risky play, especially utilizing the tight end position. Billingsley is also coming off of a goose egg versus Texas A&M. On the bright side, the junior played a season-high 72 snaps in the contest, which is more than fellow tight end Cameron Latu by a wide margin. Billingsley has a 19-point effort under his belt against Ole Miss and could be involved against the other Mississippi squad this weekend. The Bulldogs have proven reasonably stout against the run so far this year but have been vulnerable through the air, allowing two passing scores per game on the year. He could have a sneaky game in tow and minimal usage if you are digging around this range.