Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 5

After a week that was low on marquee matchups and high on weirdness (looking at you, Virginia Tech), we have an absolutely loaded Week 5 slate. In fact, outside of Week 1 last year, this might be the best and most significant slate of September games in recent memory. There is a pair of top-10 matchups between Ohio State and Penn State along with Stanford and Notre Dame. We also have Texas Tech and West Virginia playing in a game that might set defensive football back a decade and a sneaky interesting matchup between a ranked Oregon team against a ranked (!) California squad. We also get to see just how real Kentucky is after the program's first 4-0 start since 2008. You all know the drill, let's get into the meat and potatoes for this week's Start vs. Sit.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

Michael Warren II, RB, Cincinnati (at Connecticut)

Until Gerrid Doaks (groin) gets back, it's clear that this is the Warren show out of the Cincinnati backfield. He gobbled up 68 percent (23 total) of the Bearcats' rushing attempts in Saturday's come from behind win over Ohio. Warren isn't just getting a ton of work, he's making the most of it; his eight rushing touchdowns rank second in the nation behind FAU star Devin Singletary. With a matchup against Connecticut's defense that allows a laughable 7.97 yards per rush attempt, Warren has legit RB2 upside in Week 5.

ACC

Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson (vs. Syracuse)

I mention Etienne a fair bit in this space, and a lot of it has had to do with my belief that he's a borderline top-five running back in terms of talent coupled with his frustrating usage pattern. A major contributor to that frustration was quarterback Kelly Bryant, who was soaking up 20 percent of Clemson's rushing share. Now that the less mobile Trevor Lawrence is Clemson's starting quarterback, there will be less designed QB runs and more opportunities for Etienne to shine. What's more, Lawrence is such a dangerous passer (10.0 YPA) that defenses will have to deploy more defensive backs to contend with the Tigers, which means less loaded boxes for Etienne. Syracuse has been respectable against the run (3.99 YPC allowed) but hasn't faced a team of Clemson's caliber yet. Look for Etienne to put up fringe RB1 numbers this week.

BIG 12

Trey Sermon, RB, Oklahoma

Well, it finally happened. Sermon took over the workhorse role against Army after Oklahoma experimented with a deep committee approach in the wake of Rodney Anderson's season-ending injury. He was the only Oklahoma running back to get a carry Saturday, and while that's partially attributable to the Sooners' miniscule time of possession mark, it goes to show that the coach staff has its trust firmly placed in Sermon. The sophomore made good with his increased opportunity, taking 18 carries for 119 yards. Getting the lion's share of the work against Baylor's suspect run defense makes Sermon an excellent play in Week 5.

BIG TEN

Stevie Scott, RB, Indiana (at Rutgers)

Coming off his toughest outing of the season -- an 11-carry, 18-yard showing against Michigan State -- Scott is primed for a bounceback in the form of a matchup against Rutgers. He was still the only Indiana back to get any considerable rushing volume against the Spartans, so there's almost no competition for carries outside of quarterback Peyton Ramsey when he opts to pull it down and run. Scott's Week 4 dud can be chalked up as a mulligan. Start him with confidence against a floundering Rutgers squad.

CONFERENCE USA

Jalen Guyton, WR, North Texas (vs. Louisiana Tech)

The Mean Green opens up conference play against a Louisiana Tech team that more than held its own against LSU in Week 4. The winner of this game will have a distinct advantage over the other en route to winning the west, making this one of the biggest Conference-USA matchups of the season. Guyton has seen more than 20 percent of the North Texas target share in three games this season and had a team-high eight targets against Liberty. His production in the last two weeks has been modest (six catches, 76 yards) but a player of his caliber that racked up 775 yards and nine scores last season can take advantage of the opportunity this week against the Bulldogs.

MAC

LeVante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan (at Miami (OH))

Western Michigan smartly mixes its carries between Bellamy and Jamauri Bogan and both are coming off 100-yard games against Georgia State. Bellamy, however, has been the more effective of the two backs and averages a MAC-leading 97.25 yards per game and also has three touchdowns. Of course, he'll cede carries to Bogan, but Bellamy is the back to own and gets a matchup against a Miami (OH) team that gives up 140 rushing yards per game.

MOUNTAIN WEST

KeeSean Johnson, WR, Fresno State (vs. Toledo)

The Bulldogs will get one of the toughest tests of the defense this week with Toledo's explosive offense coming to town. With that, Fresno State won't be able to only lean on the run game and hope to keep Toledo's offense at bay. Johnson could be in for one of his highest targeted games of the season, and that's while noting that Johnson has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks. He's also facing a Toledo defense that ranks 102nd as a team in defensive S&P+. Things are lining up for Johnson to have a matchup-altering week against Toledo.

PAC-12

Travon McMillian, RB, Colorado (vs UCLA)

The Chip Kelly era is off to an unbelievably bad start and things will get worse Friday going on the road in the altitude to take on a Colorado team that is coming off a bye. McMillian, save for his game against Nebraska, has been electric this season with 33 carries for 290 yards (8.8 YPC) and three touchdowns through three games. Getting to go against a UCLA defense that has coughed up 11 rushing touchdowns in three games is a dream scenario for McMillian. All of your Buffaloes should be in play this weekend versus a teetering UCLA team. Your Arizona State options also have a favorable matchup at home against Oregon State.

SEC

Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M (vs. Arkansas)

Anytime you can tee up a matchup against Arkansas right now, you've got to hammer the opportunity. The Hogs have a ways to go under new coach Chad Morris, and a trip to Kyle Field against an angry A&M team isn't where that turnaround begins. Mond largely held his own against the Crimson Tide in a loss with two total touchdowns and 98 rushing yards. Look for Mond to have a major bounceback with top-15 upside against Arkansas, even if the Hogs have quietly posted top-30 S&P+ numbers.

SUN BELT

Shai Werts, Georgia State (vs. Arkansas State)

The Eagles are only slight home underdogs to the Red Wolves this week, a surprising line to those who perhaps haven't paid attention to what Werts has done thus far. Of course, Georgia Southern doesn't run an offense that produces gaudy passing numbers (203 yards through three games). Werts' athleticism has been a major ground game asset, however. He has a rushing touchdown in each game this season and is coming off a bye whereas Arkansas State may be a bit punchdrunk on the road after having to contend with UNLV's run-heavy attack that racked up 310 yards last weekend.

PLAYERS TO SIT

AAC

Ryquell Armstead, RB, Temple (at Boston College)

It's tough to back the Eagles after their no-show on the road at Purdue last weekend, but a dose of homecooking against Temple should get them back on the right track. Armstead is Temple's key offensive player and has run for more than 100 yards in three straight games, including games against Buffalo and Maryland. The Eagles bring a different level of run defense, having allowed just 3.58 yards per carry through four games. The game script also favors the Eagles here as two-touchdown favorites, so Temple may have to abandon the run to a degree, which will leave Armstead with a diminished workload.

ACC

Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse (at Clemson)

Dungey ranks eighth among FBS quarterbacks with at least three games in fantasy points per game a 33.4 He has two five-touchdown games and has posted at least three touchdowns in each game that he's been fully healthy. Bottom line: Dungey has been exactly what we could've hoped he'd be with his health cooperating in 2018. We could also look at the fact that Clemson is coming off back-to-back weeks against option opponents (Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech), which can always lead to a defensive hangover, especially when tasked with stopping another mobile quarterback like Dungey. That's a decent enough narrative to maybe convince yourself into starting him this weekend. In reality, though, Clemson's defense is elite, loaded with talent, and exceptionally fast and physical. That's a bad mix of characteristics for a player like Dungey whose fearless (read: reckless) play style can expose him to some monster hits. The Dungey train will be slowed down this weekend.

BIG 12

Taylor Cornelius, QB, Oklahoma State (at Kansas)

Benching someone because they're playing Kansas? The end times are certainly near, right? Well, whether the apocalypse is on our doorstep is a topic for a different article, but the fact remains that Cornelius is outside my top-30 at quarterback this week. It's his first true road game and is going against a Jayhawk secondary that ranks 30th in S&P+ and ranks inside the top-25 in opponent passer rating (105.17). Cornelius has gotten exposed the last two weeks, throwing for under 260 yards in each outing. He also hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns since the season-opener when the 'Pokes played an FCS opponent. Even if Oklahoma State runs a quarterback-friendly system, it's hard to fully trust Cornelius at the moment.

BIG TEN

Juwan Johnson, WR, Penn State (vs. Ohio State)

This one could come back and burn me given Johnson's five-star pedigree and impressive frame that makes him a red zone terror. Still, Johnson is more of a solid real-life player than a must-start fantasy commodity. 11 of his 20 targets came in a Week 1 shootout against Appalachian State and he's averaging just four catches for 47.2 yards per game overall. Even with Johnson's red zone ability, Penn State's red zone offense skews heavily toward the run with Trace McSorley's mobility along with Miles Sanders' presence. Ohio State will be stretched thin making sure McSorley and Sanders don't take the game over, but I'm still not convinced Johnson becomes the Option A type play that makes him worthy of a start in a big spot this weekend.

Conference USA

Emmanuel Esukpa, RB, Rice (at Wake Forest)

Wake Forest just got embarrassed at home so badly that it axed its defensive coordinator. So this is a good spot for Conference USA's leading rusher, right? "Not so fast my friend." Wake Forest does have a bad defense, but its biggest problem is more so in the secondary. I mean, Boston College threw five touchdowns against the Deacs. But, back to Esukpa. The Owls are nearly four-touchdown underdogs and going against a Wake Forest defense that actually allows less yards per carry than Wisconsin (4.37 to 4.39). Esukpa is in line to have worse per-carry efficiency to go with a diminished workload Saturday, making him a definite sit candidate.

MAC

Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo (vs. Army)

We saw it last week against Oklahoma, which means it can happen to anyone. The Sooners possessed the ball for all of 15 minutes and 19 seconds against Army in a narrow escape of a victory in Week 4, showing that Army can drag anyone down into the mud with its run-heavy, possession-based approach to offense. While I doubt Army holds the ball for 75 percent of the game clock again this weekend, it's fair to downgrade the Buffalo offense with the implied loss of possessions. Jackson will still be able to do damage when Buffalo has the ball, but owners should look elsewhere before cementing him into a starting lineup in Week 5.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Nico Evans, RB, Wyoming (vs. Boise State)

Evans is Wyoming's best running back and is set to return this week after missing a pair of games with a rib injury. Provided that the rib injury cooperates, he'll be fresh considering his long layoff. Boise State will be fresh, too, and ready to slow down a Wyoming offense that runs it 62.5 percent of the time (18th in FBS). Evans owners should take a wait-and-see approach before deploying him, meaning he's a sit candidate Saturday against the heavily favored Broncos.

PAC-12

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford (at Notre Dame)

Not only is Notre Dame's defense intimidating, but it might be time to start worrying about your first-round pick, Bryce Love. He looked solid but unspectacular against Oregon after getting the week off against UC Davis, taking 19 rushes for 89 yards and a score. That's not the Bryce Love who was ripping off 40-yard carry after 40-yard carry last year en route to putting up 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns. At the very least, we can at least admit that even if Love gets back on track and starts peeling off 6.0 yards per carry, Stanford's offense has proven to be more balanced than a year ago. The Cardinal simply doesn't need to run it 55 percent of the time the way it did a year ago with a shaky Keller Chryst and an inexperienced K.J. Costello behind center. Toss in the fact that Notre Dame ranks sixth in defensive S&P+ and holds the opposition to 3.45 yards per carry. Our weekly projections are tweaked throughout the week, so don't be surprised to see Love slide outside the top 25 at his position by the time you set your lineups.

SEC

Scottie Phillips, RB, Ole Miss

Phillips is the SEC's second-leading rusher and one of the great early surprises of the season, averaging 116.75 yards per game on a strong 7.5 YPC mark. He ranks seventh in the nation in fantasy points among running backs. Unfortunately, a trip to LSU means he probably needs to take a seat on your bench this weekend. LSU's defensive front is as good as any in the nation and holds opposing rushers to just 2.6 yards per carry. The optimist would note that Ole Miss' passing attack will spread the LSU defense out a bit and prevent the loaded box scenarios that would bottle up Phillips. That may be the case, but LSU doesn't need to load the box to stop a run game of Ole Miss' caliber. Phillips is still an excellent season-long option, but this weekend is an exception.

SUN BELT

Marcus Outlow, Coastal Carolina (at Troy)

Outlow is second in the conference in rushing yards per game at 89.5 and he's reached the end zone an impressive five times in four games. A trip down to Troy will be tough, however, as the Trojans are one of three Sun Belt teams holding their opponents under 4.0 yards per carry. What's more, the Chanticleers are two-touchdown underdogs, which signals that the offense may skew heavily towards the pass as the game wears on. This is too tough a situation to warrant starting Outlow outside of the deepest of leagues.