Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 7

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Start vs. Sit. We have a loaded slate with marquee ranked matchups across the landscape, highlighted by the Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma and the Florida-LSU matchup in Death Valley. Penn State-Iowa, Alabama-Texas A&M and Michigan State-Wisconsin also bear mentioning as excellent matchups between quality teams. Let's run through each conference and pick out the toughest start-sit decisions for the Week 7 action. 

AAC

START

Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston vs. Cincinnati

D'Eriq King sitting out takes a lot of the juice out of the Houston offense. Clayton Tune is a significant drop-off at quarterback, but there's still reason to buy into Stevenson. 

Stevenson saw nine targets in his first game with Tune as the starter, reeling in seven for 64 yards. Meanwhile, no other Cougar receiver saw more than two targets. Stevenson figures to dominate the target share the rest of the way, so even if his efficiency takes a dip sans King, he'll still see enough looks to post starter-worthy production. That applies this week, even with Cincinnati posing a tough challenge with its 30th-ranked defense.

SIT

Anthony Russo, QB, Temple vs. Memphis

Cincinnati is rightly drawing most of the AAC headlines after a resounding win over UCF, but Memphis may be the best team in the conference. The Tigers rank 10th in S&P+, thanks in large part to a suffocating secondary that allows just 146.2 passing yards per game and holding opponents to a mere 45.9 completion percentage. 

With that, Russo could struggle this week, even with this being a home matchup. Russo's hot start, throwing for 10 touchdowns through the first three games, has come off the rails with a combined 335 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks. A matchup against this Memphis defense doesn't seem like it'll be the cure for what's ailing Russo and the Owl passing attack. Fade Russo.

ACC

START

Deon Jackson, RB, Duke vs. Georgia Tech

Jackson is rounding into form and now draws maybe his softest conference matchup of the season. He has surpassed 23 fantasy points in back to back weeks with a pair of touchdowns in each of those outings. Duke also doesn't have much in the way of depth behind Jackson with Brittain Brown gone for the year and Mateo Durant not really challenging for a heavier workload. 

Georgia Tech's defense should help matters, too. The Yellow Jackets give up 5.0 YPC and their 245.8 rushing yards per game allowed rank last among Power 5 teams. Jackson's recent return to his 2018 form coupled with a cupcake matchup make him an excellent streaming option if your lineup is hit hard by bye weeks.

SIT

Cam Akers, RB, Florida State at Clemson

Clemson's run defense is just too much to feel confident in starting Akers this week. The Tigers rank sixth overall in S&P+ defense and are give up 2.7 yards per carry (on a 189-attempt sample). 

Akers is, of course, the engine of the Florida State offense, getting 42 percent of the touches through five games. However, the enormous spread where Florida State enters as nearly four-touchdown underdogs on the road suggests that the script could go against Akers in a hurry.  His usage as a receiver (20 targets, 15 catches, two touchdowns) helps bolster his floor to an extent, though it simply might not be enough Saturday. 

BIG 12

START

Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor at Texas Tech

Thornton's last three games give a glimpse into the type of player he's becoming. He has caught 18 of 24 targets for 303 yards (12.6 YPT) and two scores in that span, with each of those touchdowns coming in the last two games against tough defenses like Iowa State and Kansas State. 

The matchup this week is right on par with those, as Texas Tech surrenders just 226 passing yards per game. That said, Thornton's role as the clear No. 2 behind Denzel Mims in this offense, along with his newfound efficiency, make him a legitimate starting candidate in Week 7. 

Also, start any and all of your players going in the Red River Showdown. We have an over/under hovering around 75 for that one. 

SIT

SaRodorick Thompson, RB, Texas Tech at Baylor

Would you believe that both of these defenses rate higher than their respective offenses in S&P+? Texas Tech (36) and Baylor (31) both have top-40 defenses while the Red Raiders sport the No. 55 offense and the Bears check in at 42. 

Taking that a step further, Baylor's run defense is flat-out impressive. The Bears allow just 106.6 rushing yards per game on 3.12 yards per carry. Thornton is an important piece of this Texas Tech backfield with a 28 percent share of the workload, but players like Armand Shyne and Ta'Zhawn Henry both factor into the equation and Jett Duffey is a threat to run from the quarterback spot. The Bears also allow just 4.3 YPT to running backs, which could sap Thompson's production out of the backfield. Thornton is still a useful player in deep formats, just not this week.

BIG TEN

START

Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State at Iowa

This is Penn State's biggest test to date after the Nittany Lions roared to a 5-0 start while outscoring opponents 235-37. Yes, 235-37. 

Clifford has been the driving force behind that start, averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game and taking this offense to the No. 9 rating in S&P+. Now Clifford and Co. have to go on the road to Kinnick, where the Hawkeyes are 27-7 since 2015. And the Hawkeyes allow just 12.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks. So, something has to give, and I side with Clifford who is completing 67.7 percent of his passes with a 10.7 YPA and a 12:2 TD:INT.  His talent and supporting cast should help the Nittany Lions escape with a victory Saturday while posting strong fantasy production along the way. 

SIT

Darrell Stewart, WR, Michigan State at Wisconsin

Stewart has been nothing short of spectacular this year, catching 41 of 69 targets for 624 yards (9.0 YPT, 11.0 Tar/G) while earning a 32.5 percent target share in the Michigan State offense. The issue here is two-fold. Maybe three-fold. 

For one, Wisconsin has given up 29 points to Big Ten opponents in two home games, including just 14 points to Michigan and most of those came after the outcome had been decided. The secondary has allowed a 44.6 percent completion rate and picked off six passes while allowing just three touchdowns.

Second, quarterback Brian Lewerke has poor road splits. 

And third, it's supposed to be Wisconsin weather in Madison this weekend with rain and cold temperatures, so I expect this one to be a stereotypical Big Ten matchup without a ton of production through the air. With all of that in mind, I'd look elsewhere beyond Stewart this weekend.

Conference USA

START

Michael Lawrence, WR, North Texas at Southern Mississippi

Rico Bussey is a tough player to fully replace in this offense. However, his absence is starting to lead to Lawrence's re-emergence. Lawrence,  who led the Mean Green in receptions and yards in 2017 with 56 for 749, is coming off a bye and was already starting to see his role expand prior to that with eight catches on 11 targets against Houston. The 6.0 YPT has been less than ideal, but a matchup against a Southern Mississippi defense that allows 267 passing yards per game and ranks 90th in defensive S&P+ should provide a scenario for Lawrence to succeed with his high target volume this weekend.

SIT

Sincere McCormick, RB, UTSA vs. UAB

UAB's run defense is one of the nation's best. The Blazers allow just 90 rushing yards on 2.87 YPC  and rank 38th in defensive S&P+ overall. McCormick has been impressive in his own right, taking on the lead job for the Road Runners and averaging 6.55 YPC over 67 attempts. He's also getting work in the passing game with 12 targets through five games. The defense he'll face, along with UTSA coming in as heavy (12.5-point) underdogs, sets this up as a less-than-ideal scenario for McCormick.

MAC

START

Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan at Miami (OH)

Western Michigan has the top passing offense in the MAC (300.0 YPG), so even though Gio Ricci is the star, there's been enough to make for multiple fantasy options in this offense. Moore is coming off a breakout against Toledo, catching seven of 14 targets for 101 yards. He now gets to face another soft matchup against Miami of Ohio, which has allowed 15 passing touchdowns through five games. If Moore can maintain his high target volume, the catches and receiving production will be there, and the touchdowns could follow.

Central Michigan's Kalil Pimpleton deserves a mention, too, as he's the Chippewas' leading receiver and gets to face New Mexico State this weekend.

SIT

Davon Jones, Bowling Green vs. Toledo

The game script could get away from Bowling Green from the jump. Jones likely will start if Andrew Clair (foot) doesn't play, it just might not matter. Bowling Green enters the game as nearly four-touchdown underdogs. Toledo isn't a world-beater on defense, ranking 119th in defensive S&P+, but the offense is good enough to force the issue with the Bowling Green passing game. Touches could simply be too limited for things to work out for Jones on Saturday.

MOUNTAIN WEST

START

Charles Williams, RB, UNLV at Vanderbilt

Williams was on the other side of the ledger for me last week with a matchup against Boise State that ended up with just 57 rushing yards on 11 attempts. A matchup against Vanderbilt sets up much better for Williams heading into Week 7. The Commodores rank 114th in defensive S&P+ and allow 211. 2 rushing yards per game. Boise State, for comparison, ranks 47th and allows just 127 rushing yards per game. Williams' recent downturn has come against legitimate defenses, and Vanderbilt doesn't qualify there. Even if the knee isn't 100 percent healthy, Williams has a chance to regain his early season form against the lowly 'Dores.

SIT

Cole McDonald, QB, Hawaii at Boise State

I know, I know. It seems crazy to bench a quarterback with 17 touchdowns and more than 1,700 total yards through five games. And I'm not saying you have to sit him regardless of whatever other options you have at quarterback. I am asking you to at least consider it, though. He's a fringe top-25 quarterback by our rankings for this week, and a lot of that has to do with the matchup.

McDonald is on the road playing a night game in Boise against a passing defense that allows just 178 passing yards per game. While McDonald won't be held to that low of a total given his high volume of passes in this offense, it's fair to wonder whether his outcome Saturday will look more like his performance against Washington (12.6 FPts) than his showings against the likes of Oregon State or Nevada. Boise State's defense will create just enough havoc (9th in sacks, 17th in tackles for loss) to throw McDonald off his game and make him less effective than usual. 

PAC-12

START

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, USC at Notre Dame

I love the trash talk from Pittman this week. Somehow this USC team has become a likable underdog that has kept things together despite several obstacles, particularly at quarterback. 

Pittman has had a breakout season despite the revolving door of passers. He averages nine targets per game and 11.1 yards per target. Notre Dame is, of course, a tough matchup, as the Irish allow just 183 passing yards and less than 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. Pittman is on his way to establishing himself as matchup-proof, having gone for 14 catches, 296 yards and two scores against Utah and Washington. Saturday will put that notion to the test, but I'm not betting against Pittman.

SIT

Steven Montez, QB, Colorado at Oregon

Oregon's defense is truly elite, ranking fourth in the nation in S&P+ and holding quarterbacks to just 5.0 yards per attempt and a 51.5 completion rate. The Ducks have five interceptions at home compared to one passing touchdown allowed. This sets up poorly for Colorado.

Montez has been a viable QB2, averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game despite not having Laviska Shenault fully at his disposal. Even if Shenault is available for this matchup, Oregon's defense is too strong to allow Montez and company to move the ball. Look for other streaming options to replace Montez for Week 7.

SEC

START

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU vs. Florida

The further we get into the season, the more I'm sold on Florida and specifically Florida's defense. Sure, the Gators had the advantage of being at home last week but it made Auburn's offense look pedestrian and it certainly made Bo Nix look like a true freshman, forcing four turnovers (three interceptions). The thing is, Burrow isn't Bo Nix and home field advantage is on LSU's side this week. 

Burrow (39.9) ranks second behind only Jalen Hurts in fantasy points per game and is already just six touchdown passes shy of tying LSU's single- season record of 28 (shoutout Matt Mauck and JaMarcus Russell). This is obviously the toughest test for this reborn LSU offense, so it's a question of whether you trust what Burrow and Company are doing or Florida's fast and physical defense. A key Saturday will be controlling Florida's pass rush. The Gators have racked up 26 sacks (3rd) while LSU has mostly kept Burrow upright with 9.0 sacks allowed. If Florida's pass rush is slowed, Burrow will have enough time to carve up the Gator secondary. 2019 Joe Burrow is just not someone you leave on the bench, even with a brutal matchup. 

SIT

Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Is it fair to label Harris one of the biggest disappointments among fantasy running backs this season? Now, Harris has been plenty efficient with 6.2 YPC and his three receiving touchdowns demonstrate his ability in the open field. But we're also talking about a guy who had the only two roadblocks ahead of him on the depth chart head to the NFL this offseason, and yet Harris has just 441 total yards in five games, and just one 100-yard rushing performance, which came against Southern Mississippi. 

I expect Alabama to lean more on Harris as the season wears on, so the volume could start to tick up after seeing just 54 rushes through five outings. But betting on Harris to push for 20 carries Saturday or any time would be based on faith alone and not evidence given what we've seen to this point. Harris is a fringe RB3 this week against an A&M defense that holds opponents to just 108 rushing yards per game and ranks 23rd in S&P+. Do with that what you will. 

SUN BELT

START

Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana vs. Appalachian State

Don't get me wrong, Appalachian State is a quality team and arguably the best in the Sun Belt. But that's not because of its defense. The Mountaineers rank 11th in offensive S&P+ and just 101st on the other side of the ball. The run game has been particularly porous, as Appalachian State allows 4.34 yards per carry and 165 rushing yards per game. That's not great when you're going up against the top rushing attack in the nation.

Ragas, Mitchell and the Ragin' Cajuns rack up 314 rushing yards per game. That's more than Navy! And the 22 rushing touchdowns are tied for the most in the nation, too. Whether you have Ragas, the more explosive of the two (9.79 YPC), or Mitchell, the goal-line specialist (9 touchdowns), you're in the clear to start them against an Appalachian State defense that has taken a step back in Year 1 under Eliah Drinkwitz. 

SIT

Markis McCray, WR, UL Monroe at Texas State

The weak link to Texas State's defense is its run defense, with the Bobcats giving up a generous 221 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, its secondary allows just 189.6 passing yards per game. McCray is the highest-targeted UL-Monroe receiver and is coming off an 11-target outing against Memphis. The issue is a lot of the targets also get funneled to tight end Josh Pederson, and Xavier Brown and Zachari Jackson also see a healthy share of the targets. So McCray's raw numbers may look strong, but within the broader context of this passing game they become less bankable. Toss in the relatively tough matchup and it's likely enough to eliminate McCray from starting consideration this week.